719
FXUS63 KGRR 140740
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
340 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances for Rain Wed/Thu and next Weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 339 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

- Chances for Rain Wed/Thu and next Weekend

Zonal flow with weak sfc ridging brings fair weather through
Tuesday then rain chances return for mid-week with the approach
of a weak shortwave trough. Showers and storms arrive Wednesday
and persist into Thursday as a cold front moves through. The GFS
has backed off the severe weather threat, now showing rather weak
shear of 20 knots on Wednesday and Thursday. This looks like
another pulse thunderstorm environment and only isolated wind
gusts as a threat. Storm total QPF is only around 0.15
inches average over the forecast area.

Upper ridging across the SE CONUS late in the week with zonal flow
across northern periphery could result in MCS activity making it
into Lower Michigan over the weekend but confidence is low at this
point with location and timing.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 120 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through tonight. Winds will be west to
southwest blo 10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 339 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Winds and waves will be relatively light through Tuesday with
slowly increasing southwest and south flow. Thunderstorms are
possible from Wednesday into Thursday and north winds could ramp
up behind a cold front later Thursday.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for MIZ037>040-
     043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Ostuno
AVIATION...Ostuno
MARINE...Ostuno