Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 262355 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
655 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

...WATCHING ALBERTO WITH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FLOODING IN EASTERN
MISSISSIPPI...

.UPDATE...
Updated for 00Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF discussion:

Another evening of scattered showers and thunderstorms across
the region, although in many areas the activity will be
diminishing well before midnight. Best chance of impact bringing
brief MVFR/IFR conditions and local turbulence this evening is
around PIB/HBG, although it is impossible to rule out impact at
other TAF sites for the next few hours. Otherwise, anticipate most
of the convection to be all gone late tonight with partial
clearing allowing for patchy fog and low clouds around at daybreak
Sunday. Potential for more than isolated IFR cats at that time
range is low. Tomorrow, winds will turn more out of the east, but
will still be mainly less than 10 kts, with less shower and
thunderstorm activity than has been the case lately. /BB/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Sunday: Mid afternoon water vapor imagery/RAP analysis
still showed a shear axis extending generally along the Mississippi
river. Local wet microburst checklist suggested potential for
isolated pulse severe storms over this area with damaging wind gusts
as the primary threat. Local radars showed scattered to numerous
storms across central Louisiana that will move over this area during
the next several hours. This activity is expected to decrease this
evening with the loss of daytime heating. Overall, model consensus
has trended drier over our CWA after midnight tonight and Sunday.
Subtropical Storm Alberto will continue to approach the northern
Gulf Sunday and our CWA is expected to remain on the northwest side
of the storm. Wl still have the mid level shear axis over our
western zones but our 1000-850mb winds wl strengthen out of the
northeast to east thanks to the approaching storm. Latest CAM
guidance suggests very isolated coverage of afternoon storms will
a little greater chance for rain over our southeast most zones.
Environmental parameters don`t look as favorable for strong to
severe storm development Sunday. Otherwise, warmer than normal
temperatures and humidity will continue through the period. /22/
/22/

Sunday night through Saturday...Main focus for the
first half of the work week will be Alberto and the heavy rain
threat that may result from the system as it moves inland. The
latest NHC track has the best probabilities of the center to our east
which will result in our area being on the western side. No concern
for any winds due to the small size of the system along with inland
decay. As for the rainfall potential, confidence is not high as the
western side often has a sharp precip gradient. Due to this, have
coordinated with neighbors to reduce the Flood Threat graphics as
overall QPF and expected rainfall totals are becoming less. I will
add that there remains a decent amount of uncertainty as any
influences of dry air in/around Alberto can quickly make the system
asymmetrical. Due to this, at limited and elevated threat will remain
over the far east part of the forecast area. Overall, the trend is
for lower storm totals, these are highlighted in our latest graphics.

As for temps/pops/weather, conditions will be trending cooler as
Alberto approaches due to cloud cover and precip chances increasing.
Thunderstorm potential will be much lower than we`ve seen and will
be limited at best for Mon-Tue. I`ve heavily modified the weather
grids to show this along with pop trends.

For Wed into Sat...As the remnants of Alberto exit, humidity will be
quite high and expect temps to warm through the end of the week.
Highs will steadily increase into the lower 90s, then mid 90s, with
some areas (mainly W half) will make a few runs at 96-98 Fri-Sat.
The general weather pattern will quickly make a transition to one of
a semi-NW flow with fairly decent upper riding just to our west.
This will support the hot conditions, but will also serve to bring
in steep lapse rates and all indications are that some sort of
surface boundary will exist near to just to the N of our area. This
will support the threat for some severe weather (possibly in the
form of an organized MCS or two). We`re still some time out from
that, so no graphics needed but will continue to discuss. The other
concern will be Heat Stress. For Thu-Sat, Max heat index over our
area will range from 100-105. This will be another focus as we get
closer and something that will be watched. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       69  86  69  84 /  33  20  17  47
Meridian      68  84  68  84 /  31  37  47  59
Vicksburg     70  88  69  86 /  44  16  10  38
Hattiesburg   70  86  69  83 /  39  26  30  66
Natchez       69  87  69  85 /  47  16  12  44
Greenville    70  89  70  86 /  29  16  10  23
Greenwood     69  87  69  85 /  39  17  16  35

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

$$

BB/22/CME



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