Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 220902

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
202 AM PDT Sun Apr 22 2018

Dry and warm through early next week. Chance of a few showers or
thunderstorms over the mountains by mid to late next week.


Shortwave trough will pass through the area today, but bring
little to no moisture with it. This will serve to cool
temperatures a few degrees across northern portions of the area,
while southern portions will warm a few degrees from Saturday`s
readings. Widespread 80s expected across the valley with 50s-60s
in the mountains. Instability that brought a few storms near the
crest in Tuolumne county yesterday will shift southward, so not
expecting any convection today. Could see some locally breezy
north winds across northern Sac Valley.

Ridging rebuilds for Monday and Tuesday as temperatures warm a few
more degrees, topping out much above normal for late April.
Redding will likely tie or break daily max records both days
(Airport records for the 24th - 86 in 2002 and 25th - 87 in
2013). Other valley records are in the 90s so not expecting to
break additional records. As ridging begins to the shift to the
east Tuesday into Wednesday in advance of large closed upper low
over the Pacific, could see a few afternoon/evening showers and
thunderstorms develop near the Sierra crest, south of I-80, as
instability is pulled northward. Confidence remains low in just
how widespread this activity may be, but something to watch.
Temperatures will remain much above normal.



High pressure remains over the West thru Thursday as a closed
upper low sits over the eastern Pacific. Temperatures will remain
above average and there`s a slight chance of diurnal thunderstorms
over the Sierra crest.

Friday into the weekend, uncertainty is high as models diverge
significantly on the speed and direction of the closed low
movement. Generally, the upper low and associated surface cold
front approaches the area on Friday, creating a chance for more
widespread showers and afternoon thunderstorms over the Coast
Range and Sierra crest. Temperatures expected to cool down close
to average.


VFR conditions at the TAF sites the next 24 hours. Winds 10 kts
or less except vicinity Delta southwest 10-15 kts.



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