Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241557
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu May 24 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends west from the Caribbean coast of
Colombia at 09N76W across the northern Gulf of Panama, and then
across Panama to 08N85W, then turns northwest to 10N99W, then
southwest to 09N107W, then northwest to 11N120W, and finally
southwest to 09N135W where scatterometer winds indicate a
transition to an ITCZ which continues west to beyond 09N140W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 90
nm either side of a line from 07N78W to 09N84W, within 240 nm
either side of a line from 14N93W to 07N105W, then narrows
within 120 nm either side of a line from 07N105W to 12N122W to
07N129W to 09N140W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A northwest to southeast low level ridge will shift slightly
east across the far offshore waters from near 27N120W to 15N102W
this evening and then meander in this position into the upcoming
weekend. This will result in a tightening pressure gradient that
will support a moderate to locally fresh northwest breeze west
of the Baja Peninsula beginning this evening. Further tightening
of the pressure gradient is forecast on Fri with locally strong
conditions forecast within about 120 nm of the west coast of
Baja beginning on Fri night and then continuing through sunrise
on Sun. Associated seas are forecast to build to 5 to 8 ft
during the upcoming weekend.

Gulf of California: A fresh southwest breeze is expected between
29.5N and 31N tonight and a fresh to locally strong breeze is
expected on Fri evening as a weak surface low develops briefly
near 31N114W. The low will move east with a moderate northwest
breeze forecast across the gulf waters north of 29N on Sat. A
gentle to locally moderate northwest breeze will continue across
the central and southern Gulf of California through Fri morning
when a tightening pressure gradient will support a fresh
northwest breeze through early Sat.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Moderate to locally fresh nocturnal drainage
flow is expected through Fri night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light southerly winds are expected through Fri morning, then
moderate southwest flow is forecast through Sun morning with
seas of 3 to 6 ft throughout this period.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface high is centered near 26N123W with a ridge extending
southeast to near 15N100W. The high is blocking the forward
progress of a weakening cold front along a position from 30N132W
to near 24N140W with a weak surface low evident on the front
near 32N132W. The front will continue slowly east and lose
identity from 32N120W to 26N128W on Fri night into Sat. Although
only fresh winds northerly winds are forecast west of the front,
northwest swell will maintain an area of 6 to 8 ft seas across
the waters from 29N to 32N through Fri afternoon.

The pressure gradient is forecast to tighten as a surface low
develops along the ITCZ near 10.5N132W tonight resulting in
fresh to possibly strong trades within 480 nm north of low as
seas build to 8 ft. The low should drift west and gradually
dissipate near 10N135W during the upcoming weekend.

$$
Nelson


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