484
FXUS64 KLUB 130724
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
224 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 223 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Drier and warmer conditions can be expected today despite a cold
front moving through the area. This cold front was currently moving
southward across the region which will scour out low level moisture
and low stratus. Winds at 850mb around 20-30kt will be able to
quickly mix down to the surface after sunrise after stratus clears.
Therefore, surface winds will increase shortly after sunrise and
will generally relax through the afternoon as the pressure gradient
lessens. Despite the cold front, temperatures will warm today closer
to seasonal averages under mostly clear skies with increased
thickness values.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 223 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Upper ridging will bring dry conditions and above average
temperatures on Tuesday, with highs reaching near 90 across much of
the South Plains region. Shortwave ridging along with increased
shear and instability from daytime heating on Wednesday all suggest
the potential for severe weather. While some uncertainty remains
regarding the exact timing/placement of any storms, recent
model/ensemble runs suggest perhaps a slightly later start time into
Wednesday evening. As such, greatest chances would occur off the
Caprock where the best shear/forcing would exist at that time. The
latest PoP forecast reflects this thinking. Nonetheless, general
storm chances remain for much of the forecast area from late
afternoon onwards with a favorable upper pattern.

An upper low over the Four Corners region will track southeastward
on Thursday. SE surface winds behind a cold front will also bring in
ample Gulf moisture to the region (GFS PWATs of 1.5 inches off the
Caprock Thursday afternoon). As such, another round of severe
weather is possible Thursday afternoon/evening although shear
parameters look slightly weaker than Wednesday. A broad upper ridge
will quickly displace the low on Friday bringing a return to hot and
dry conditions. Combined with strengthening southwesterly winds,
highs this weekend are expected well into the 90s.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Southeasterly surface winds continued to pump up moisture into the
region leading to low CIGS area wide. Conditions may bounce
between IFR and MVFR at KLBB and KPVW through the early morning
hours with KCDS likely remaining in IFR. Light visby restrictions
may also be possible but confidence is higher in the lower CIGS.
A cold front will push through the area around daybreak
dissipating low CIGS and visbys and shifting winds to the north.
Wind speeds will immediately increase behind the front but will
decrease through the afternoon hours.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...01