Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 112038

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
338 PM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018

Cool surface ridging continued to wedge itself southward over the
region this afternoon, with progressive drying aloft as noted by
the loss of mid-level clouds across much of our northern zones.
However, water vapor imagery shows a mid-level impulse curling
east from western NM complete with a decaying plume of Pacific
moisture. As this wave shears out tonight, most of its clouds
should diminish and help set the stage for chilly lows in the 20s
and low 30s.

Before a progressive upper ridge arrives by midweek, a weak trough
in cyclonic NW flow is progged to graze the eastern Panhandles
Monday night and Tuesday. This wave will track roughly parallel to
an elevated baroclinic zone with some moisture advection to boot,
and could garner some elevated showers and a few storms NE of our
counties on Tuesday. Opted to boost mid-level clouds a bit more
over much of the region given this wave`s proximity while also
cooling highs a touch from Monday. Shallow and modified low-level
moisture should improve even further from Wednesday into Thursday
morning, but no mechanisms for ascent under the aforementioned
ridge should relegate this to just some A.M. stratus or fog at times.

Drier and stronger SW flow aloft closes out the work week ahead
of a modest Pacific trough progged to track across the Four Corners
by next weekend. Although models are slower with this wave in
recent days, a lack of a more meridional flow regime downstream of
the trough should keep most of the Gulf moisture axis shunted well
to our east. One exception may involve an uptick in Pacific
moisture aloft o/a Saturday complete with a few ripples preceding
the main trough. This may garner some low-end PoPs in later
forecasts, but for now we`ve kept things dry given the deep SW
flow and breezy downslope flow pattern. Temps should warm
considerably by late week given this flow regime, but would expect
varying degrees of mid/high clouds to possibly interfere with
mixing and maybe curtail higher wind speeds a bit as well.




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