Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000
FXUS61 KLWX 020234
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
934 PM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
One cold front has just cleared the region while a second cold
front will cross the region later this evening. High pressure
will then build in for Tuesday. Low pressure will pass to the
south Wednesday. Another cold front will pass through Wednesday
night and Canadian high pressure will build toward the area for
late this week into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The main pressure surge has passed, and with nightfall, winds
are generally subsiding. Secondary surges seem unlikely to reach
advisory criteria on a widescale basis, so the advisory has been
cancelled for most areas. One exception is the Blue Ridge and
peaks of the Alleghenies, where high elevation obs show strong
winds continuing. There could still be some sporadic 30-45 mph
gusts elsewhere, however. Flurries have been observed at times
near the Pennsylvania border, but these should subside
around/after midnight as a vort max moves to the east. Scattered
stratocumulus should do likewise. Cold/dry advection continues
through the night, so lows will be dropping below freezing
across the entire area.

High pressure builds slowly into the area Tuesday, but it will
be considerably colder. Winds should slowly but surely relax,
however, and there should also be more sunshine. Highs mostly in
the 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Dry period continues through mid-week with high pressure.
Lighter winds and not quite as cold Tuesday night as clouds
increase a bit while low pressure passes to our south. Milder
temperatures Wednesday will prevail thanks to warm advection
aloft. Highs should rebound into the 50s. Dry cold front then
pushes south across the region Wednesday night, but best cold
advection will wait til Thursday, so lows Wednesday night won`t
be any colder... in fact. likely slightly milder than tonight
and Tuesday night, with many areas staying above freezing.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A breezy northwest flow will prevail Thursday into Friday and
keep temperatures below average as the region sits between an
upper-level low over eastern Canada and high pressure over the
Great Lakes region.

Dry and seasonably cool conditions continue Saturday into
Sunday as Canadian high pressure moves overhead. This likely
keeps an area of coastal low pressure to the south before
heading out to sea. As the broad trough moves east early next
week, temperatures will moderate towards seasonal levels.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions expected for the next several days. Main concern
is northwest winds through Tuesday morning. Likely to see quite
a bit of variability, especially this evening, as winds may
subside for a bit, but then increase with sporadic gusts. Peak
gust potential is probably in the 30-35 kt range. Overall the
trend will be down, with winds becoming less than 10 kt by
Tuesday evening.

VFR conditions under northwest winds Thursday into Friday
afternoon. Winds could gust to 30 knots behind the cold front
Thursday into Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Wind gusts have been quite variable, as the various
boundaries/pressure rises have been non-uniform...not to mention
slight nocturnal stability and warm air over cold waters.
However, winds likely increase once again later this evening as
secondary front moves through and air temperatures fall,
especially over the wider waters of the Bay. After that, winds
should gradually start to relax later tonight and Tuesday as
gradient relaxes and high pressure builds in. The Gale Warning
may be cancelled early. Another front approaching Wednesday with
a low passing by to the south could also cause SCA conditions.

A SCA is likely Thursday into Friday as a pressure gradient
builds over the region and strong northwest flow prevails.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for VAZ507-508.
WV...Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for WVZ501-505.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 6 PM EST Tuesday for
     ANZ530>543.
     Gale Warning until 11 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...ADS/RCM
SHORT TERM...RCM
LONG TERM...CPB
AVIATION...ADS/RCM/CPB
MARINE...ADS/RCM/CPB


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