682
FXUS61 KLWX 031405
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1005 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move through tonight. High pressure will
build into the area in its wake, before progressing offshore by
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Current water vapor imagery depicts a shortwave trough diving
southeast through the Ohio Valley this morning. Mid-level
moisture ahead of this trough has allowed for some wavy
altocumulus to develop off of the higher terrain across
central/northern VA. Not expecting any precipitation to develop
out of this, but just resulting in a bit more cloudcover than
originally anticipated.

Do expect drier air to move in throughout the day, but could see
this altocu field to continue for much of the day. Temperatures
will be seasonable, with highs in the upper 80s to around 90.
Dewpoints will drop back into the upper 50s and lower 60s, which
will make it feel less humid than preceding days.

As we move through the afternoon hours, a shortwave trough will
dive southeastward across the Great Lakes toward Upstate NY,
driving a cold front southward across NY/PA. Model guidance
hints that a few showers and storms will likely develop to our
north across NY/PA this afternoon. Most guidance weakens or
completely dissipates this activity as it works southeastward
into drier mid-level air, but a few solutions show those
showers/storms dropping into northern MD and northern portions
of the WV Panhandle late this afternoon into this evening. Model
soundings show around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 30-40 knots of
effective bulk shear in northeast MD, so there could be a
conditional threat for a damaging wind gust or instance of large
hail if storms were to make it this far south. As a result, SPC
currently has northeast and north-central Maryland outlooked in
a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms.

Any storms will wind down as they drift southeastward during the
evening hours. Dry conditions are forecast overnight, with lows
in the 60s for most.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Upper troughing will progress off the New England coast on
Friday, with high pressure building within the zone of
subsidence in its wake across the Eastern Great Lakes/Upstate
NY. Mostly sunny skies are forecast with high pressure in
control. High temperatures will be in the mid-upper 80s for
most. Humidity values will be lower than normal, with dewpoints
holding in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Clear skies are expected
4th of July evening, with temperatures in the upper 70s and low
humidity levels. Dry conditions will continue through the
remainder of the night, with lows in the 60s.

Upper ridging will build in from the west on Saturday as high
pressure at the surface starts to move offshore. Mostly sunny
skies and seasonable temperatures are forecast, with highs in
the upper 80s for most.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Heights aloft are expected to slowly build through the weekend and
into early next week. The net result is a gradual warming/moistening
trend which carries high temperatures to around 90 degrees by Sunday
and Monday. Based on the latest global ensemble guidance, the peak
in this increase in summertime heat comes on Monday. A few solutions
carry high temperatures into the low to perhaps even mid 90s.
However, this will largely depend on cloud cover and the
timing/coverage of any shower and thunderstorm development.

The return of storm chances comes with the uptick in humidity as
southerly flow increases. In response to a slow moving trough back
across the Midwest and Great Lakes region, the opportunities for
showers and thunderstorms will increase on Tuesday, Wednesday, and
Thursday. Given how far this is into the forecast period, any severe
component to these storms is uncertain at this time. Additionally,
precipitable water values increase given the continued deep
southerly flow. By the middle of next week, the parent frontal
system is forecast to be just off to the north and west of the local
area. Depending on when this boundary passes through, a decrease in
humidity would be expected once this front exits.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Prevailing VFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites through
Saturday. However, there is a very small chance for a brief
shower or storm late this afternoon or evening as a cold front
drops towards the region from the north. MRB would have the
greatest chance, followed by MTN and BWI, but chances are still
too low to mention in the TAFs. Northwesterly winds early
today will turn westerly toward the middle of the day, and then
north to northwest just prior to midnight as the aforementioned
cold front moves through. Light northerly winds are expected
tomorrow, with light southerly winds on Saturday.

High pressure remains over the region over the weekend which will
favor VFR conditions across the area terminals. Thunderstorm chances
(20-30 percent) return by Monday which could lead to brief
restrictions during the afternoon/evening hours. Winds should be out
of the south through Monday with gusts increasing to around 10 knots
each afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA level winds are expected over the waters through
Saturday. Winds will be out of the west to northwest today,
north tomorrow, and south on Saturday. There`s a very small
chance that there could be an SMW across far northern portions
of the Bay late this afternoon into this evening, but most
solutions have storms staying off to our north.

Southerly winds prevail through the weekend with wind gusts largely
topping out between 10 and 15 knots. By Sunday night, some southerly
channeling effects are possible which could near Small Craft
Advisory levels across the more southern waters.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KJP
NEAR TERM...CJL/KJP
SHORT TERM...KJP
LONG TERM...BRO/CPB
AVIATION...CJL/KJP/CPB
MARINE...KJP/CPB