-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
099
FXUS61 KLWX 231846
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
246 PM EDT Sun Mar 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

-- Changed Discussion --
A warm front will lift through the area overnight, followed by a
cold front Monday afternoon. Weak high pressure will build on
Tuesday. Another cold front will cross the area early on
Wednesday. Strong high pressure builds for the second half of
the week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

-- Changed Discussion --
Clouds will continue to thicken and lower this afternoon and
this evening with showers arriving in the mountains around 00Z,
then spread east across the rest of the area tonight. Showers
will be off and on through the night into Monday with generally
quarter to half inch expected along and east of I-95 with lesser
amounts of a tenth of an inch expected over the Shenandoah
Valley.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

-- Changed Discussion --
Showers will continue Monday east of Route 15 before exiting
the fcst area after 21Z. Dry Monday night into Tue under weak
high pressure, although plenty of high clouds will persist
Monday before thinning out some Tuesday.

Next chance of rain arrives Tue night and Wed with a weak area
of low pressure passing by. Aloft, it will be cold enough to
support some elevation dependent snow. There will be less rain
with this event Tue than with the previous one Monday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --
The mid-latitude pattern will remain progressive through the period.
Initially, troughing will persist across the eastern third of the
country while broad ridging is centered over the Intermountain West.
This entire longwave pattern translates eastward in time with the
mean ridge reaching the Mississippi River Valley by Friday.
Eventually, this feature settles over the eastern U.S. by the first
half of next weekend. Further upstream, a number of deterministic
models show a fairly potent shortwave trailing this ridge. This
would ultimately favor some sort of pattern change late next
weekend, perhaps even into the following week. Of course uncertainty
is quite high as this occurs as is evident in ensemble temperature
spread.

Multi-day trends support a slow but steady warm up through the
period. On Wednesday morning, a potential wave of low pressure will
be in the process of exiting into the Delmarva Peninsula. This will
keep some rain shower chances in the forecast, accompanied by a
rain/snow mix across the higher elevations. A few ensemble members
attempt to bring some flakes further east, but such a prospect is
much more difficult this late in the season. Any such activity is
likely to wane into the afternoon hours with some late day clearing
possible. A return to more tranquil weather is expected into
Thursday as surface high pressure settles over the region.

Toward the end of the work week, the dome of high pressure will nose
southward as a backdoor front approaches from the north. Depending
upon model solution, this particular boundary may act as a focus for
additional precipitation chances late in the week.

During this period, much of the uncertainty is tied to the
temperature and precipitation forecast into Saturday. Global
ensemble spread is fairly high with notable differences between the
25th and 75th percentiles of the NBM (nearly 20 degree spread in
recent runs). Confidence remains low thereafter given continued
large spread during subsequent days.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --
Showers are expected tonight causing MVFR cig restrictions with
low prob of IFR cigs. Winds shift to the NW Monday afternoon
after frontal passage. Wind gusts up to 25 kt expected Mon
afternoon.

Some restrictions may persist into Wednesday morning, particularly
across the I-95 terminals. Improvement is expected thereafter with
VFR conditions through the remainder of the day and into Thursday.
Initial winds will be out of the northwest on Wednesday with
afternoon gusts up to 15 to 20 knots. Winds eventually shift to west-
southwesterly on Thursday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...

-- Changed Discussion --
SCA conditions are expected tonight through Monday evening in
southerly flow tonight and then in NW flow Monday afternoon and
evening.

SCAs may be needed into Wednesday as winds shift to the northwest.
Winds decrease into Thursday, generally topping out around 10 to 15
knots as winds shift to southwesterly.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Monday
     for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Monday
     for ANZ530>543.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...DHOF
AVIATION...LFR/DHOF
MARINE...LFR/DHOF