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102
FXUS61 KLWX 031734
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
134 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move through tonight. High pressure will
build into the area in its wake, before progressing offshore by
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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The upper trough has progressed into the region according to
latest water vapor satellite imagery. Starting to see a few
heavier showers develop, but they remain very isolated. Have
added some 20% or less POPs to cover this threat over the next
several hours. Not expecting much to come of these, as there is
a pretty stout subsidence inversion at 500mb. This is evident so
far, as any showers that have developed last maybe 5 or 6 scans,
then die out rather abruptly.

Temperatures will be seasonable, with highs in the upper 80s to
around 90. Dewpoints, while they haven`t dropped a lot yet, are
expected to drop back into the upper 50s and lower 60s this
afternoon, which will make it feel less humid than preceding
days.

As we move through the afternoon hours, this shortwave trough
will continue to dive southeastward across, driving a cold
front southward across NY/PA. Model guidance hints that a few
showers and storms will likely develop to our north across NY/PA
this afternoon. Most guidance weakens or completely dissipates
this activity as it works southeastward into drier mid-level
air currently advecting into the region. However, a few
solutions show those showers/storms dropping into northern MD
and northern portions of the WV Panhandle late this afternoon
into this evening. Model soundings show around 1000 J/kg of
MLCAPE and 30-40 knots of effective bulk shear in northeast MD,
so there could be a conditional threat for a damaging wind gust
or instance of large hail if storms were to make it this far
south. As a result, SPC currently has northeast and north-
central Maryland outlooked in a Marginal Risk for severe
thunderstorms.

Any storms will wind down as they drift southeastward during the
evening hours. Dry conditions are forecast overnight, with lows
in the 60s for most.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Upper troughing will progress off the New England coast on
Friday, with high pressure building within the zone of
subsidence in its wake across the Eastern Great Lakes/Upstate
NY. Mostly sunny skies are forecast with high pressure in
control. High temperatures will be in the mid-upper 80s for
most. Humidity values will be lower than normal, with dewpoints
holding in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Clear skies are expected
4th of July evening, with temperatures in the upper 70s and low
humidity levels. Dry conditions will continue through the
remainder of the night, with lows in the 60s.

Upper ridging will build in from the west on Saturday as high
pressure at the surface starts to move offshore. Mostly sunny
skies and seasonable temperatures are forecast, with highs in
the upper 80s for most.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Broad ridging briefly extends eastward across the region into
Sunday. At the same time, what remains of an area of disturbed
weather off the southeastern U.S. coast could graze southern
Maryland at some point late in the weekend. However, any more
notable impacts should be well off to the east. A pattern shift
unfolds into the next work week which allows for a return to
summertime heat, humidity, and daily storm chances.

The northern branch of the jet slowly becomes a bit more amplified,
but while being constituted by an array of lower amplitude waves.
Chances for convection increase through the week as the forcing
becomes more concentrated and focused. Any severe thunderstorm risk
will be predicated on the degree of instability and shear in the
atmosphere. While ample heat and humidity should support plenty of
instability (i.e., CAPE), the shear side of the equation remains
more uncertain. This air mass sticks around for much of the week as
a slow moving cold front approaches from the west. By Wednesday,
this frontal system stalls nearby before meandering in the vicinity
of the region thereafter. With anomalous moisture in place as
precipitable water values rise to around 2 inches, cannot rule out
the potential for some flooding.

Throughout next week, daily temperatures will remain fairly close to
early July climatology. Multi-day global ensembles do show a slow
but steady downtick in forecast temperatures through the week. This
is likely owing to the increase in clouds and overall storm coverage.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Prevailing VFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites through
Saturday. However, there is a very small chance for a brief
shower or storm late this afternoon or evening as a cold front
drops towards the region from the north. There are actually a
few just outside of the vicinity range at MRB. Not expecting
these to amount to much, but just something to navigate around
in this particular area. Chances thus far remain too low to
mention in any TAFs, but would give most sites around a 10 to 20
percent chance of an isolated heavy shower.

Northwesterly winds today will turn westerly later this
afternoon, and then north to northwest just prior to midnight
as the aforementioned cold front moves through. Light northerly
winds are expected tomorrow, with light southerly winds on
Saturday.

With any rainfall from the disturbance off the southeastern U.S.
coast likely well east of I-95, no impacts are expected at the area
terminals on Sunday. VFR conditions should prevail before a pattern
shift unfolds. Daily afternoon/evening thunderstorm chances return
which will support restrictions at times on both Monday and Tuesday.
In terms of winds, expect mainly southerlies through Monday before
shifting to west-northwesterlies on Tuesday as a boundary looms
nearby.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
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Sub-SCA level winds are expected over the waters through Saturday.
Winds will be out of the west to northwest today, north tomorrow,
and south on Saturday. There`s a very small chance that there
could be an SMW across far northern portions of the Bay late
this afternoon into this evening, but most solutions have storms
staying off to our north.

Within the pre-cold frontal air mass, mainly south to southeasterly
winds are expected on Sunday and Monday. Some channeling effects are
possible Sunday evening into Sunday night. While uncertain if this
will reach Small Craft Advisory levels, gusts could get close to 18
knots over the more southern waters.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KJP
NEAR TERM...CJL
SHORT TERM...KJP
LONG TERM...BRO
AVIATION...BRO/CJL
MARINE...BRO/KJP