573
FXUS64 KMAF 171047
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
547 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 227 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Temperatures are starting off well below normal this morning
following the severe storms that moved through yesterday.
Unfortunately, it won`t last much past today.

An upper trough will cross overhead today keeping mid level heights
and temperatures lower even with a weak downslope component to the
flow. Highs will top out in the 80s for most locations with 90s
along the Rio Grande. A weak disturbance will round the base of the
upper trough helping to generate a few showers and storms along and
south of the I-10 corridor. Widespread severe weather is not
expected, but some gusty winds and small hail will be possible with
these storms.

Temperatures return closer to normal tonight as winds return to the
south. Mid level ridging quickly builds over the area Saturday as
surface winds become more westerly. Even with the recent rain,
temperatures will respond by climbing to the hottest temperatures we
have seen so far this year. Widespread upper 90s are likely across
much of the Permian Basin with 100s along the Pecos and Rio Grande
Rivers. And Saturday is the "cooler" day of the weekend...

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 227 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Unfortunately, our first hundred degree day in Midland is likely
coming this weekend. Upper level ridging builds in with a thermal
ridge axis setting up over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico,
while strong southerly surface flow helps usher in warmer weather.
Sunny skies and 850mb temps around 32-35C support highs in the 100s
for most by Sunday, with 105+ along the Trans Pecos and 110+ for the
Rio Grande. Don`t expect much of a reprieve overnight as strong
southerly winds maintain lows in the upper 60s to low 70s before
highs soar back above 100 degrees again Monday afternoon. An
approaching upper level trough early Tuesday will tighten the
gradient, and warm downsloping winds may continue the well-above-
normal temperatures for one more day. Things cool down a bit
Wednesday as the trough passes to the north, but we`ll be right back
to above-normal by the end of the week. If the early summer heat
wasn`t bad enough, precipitation chances are practically
nonexistent in the long term.

-Zuber

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 546 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

VFR continues with light winds through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               84  61  98  68 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 87  61  98  64 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                   91  64 100  71 /  20  10   0   0
Fort Stockton            89  65 100  68 /  10  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           79  63  89  67 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                    83  59  95  62 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    85  52  93  55 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     84  62  98  69 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   84  63  98  70 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     89  61 101  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....88
AVIATION...29