798
FXUS62 KMFL 292330
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
730 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1219 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

South Florida remains on the periphery of surface high pressure
centered over the western Atlantic coast off the Carolinas. Aloft,
a ridge will shift eastward as a trough enters the southeastern
United States. The easterly to southeasterly wind flow will
continue but with the gradient diminishing as the high weakens and
the trough moves closer, the speed will also diminish.

Shallow showers are the main convection today though a Gulf sea
breeze could enable some more stout convection over parts of
Southwest Florida this afternoon. Thunderstorm chances are too low
to mention but will increase by Tuesday afternoon thanks in part
to the mid-level support, the sea breeze development, and the
available moisture.

Temperatures will peak in the 80s with lower 80s along the
Atlantic coast and upper 80s across Southwest Florida. The
overnight low will be in the 60s except for lower to mid 70s
across the east coast metro areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 241 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Models show good agreement in having a mid level ridge gradually
migrating from the eastern seaboard and into the western Atlantic,
while sfc high pressure remains in control of the area weather to
start the long term. As the mid level ridge moves further away from
the region, pressure gradients across the area will relax and allow
for the breezy periods to subside. Meanwhile, low-lvl winds across
SoFlo gradually veer SE by this time, allowing for a very modest
moisture advection to briefly raise chances of rain into the teens
to low 20s, mainly over the east coast and interior areas. But
showers in general will remain very limited through the long term as
relatively dry/stable air stays in place.

Afternoon high temperatures through Wednesday are expected to reach
the low-mid 80s near the coasts, and upper 80s to around 90 inland.
Then by the end of the work week, the mid level ridge strengthens
and drives high temperatures into the upper 80s near the coasts and
low 90s inland.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 728 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Light easterly flow continues overnight as scattered SHRA activity
develops over the nearshore Atlantic waters and moves inland.
Maintained VCSH throughout the TAF forecast period with the
potential of brief MVFR cigs if a shower directly impacts a
terminal. More robust convection is possible across inland South
Florida tomorrow afternoon but should remain across inland areas.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1219 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Conditions will continue to improve today as winds and seas
gradually decrease. Calmer conditions should return for the middle
of this week.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1219 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

A high risk of rip currents will linger across the Atlantic
beaches through mid week. Conditions may start to improve towards
the end of the week as onshore flow decreases, however, the rip
current risk may potentially remain elevated during this time
frame.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            73  83  73  84 /  30  40  30  40
West Kendall     69  85  70  86 /  30  40  20  40
Opa-Locka        71  85  72  87 /  30  40  30  40
Homestead        72  84  72  84 /  30  40  30  30
Fort Lauderdale  73  82  73  83 /  30  40  30  40
N Ft Lauderdale  72  82  73  84 /  30  40  30  40
Pembroke Pines   72  85  72  87 /  30  40  30  40
West Palm Beach  70  82  70  84 /  30  40  30  30
Boca Raton       71  84  71  86 /  30  40  30  40
Naples           69  86  71  87 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for FLZ168.

     High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ172-173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAG
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...Hadi