Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR

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FXUS66 KMFR 250337
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
837 PM PDT Tue Apr 24 2018

.DISCUSSION...Expect another hot day tomorrow, with some areas
potentially hitting 90. Record highs were set today in Roseburg
and North Bend, and may see some records broken tomorrow too.
Summer isn`t here yet though... Friday we will transition to a
much cooler, wetter pattern. Some updates were made to forecast
winds tomorrow in the Shasta Valley... expect some southerly gusts
in the afternoon. Otherwise, the going forecast is on track, see
previous discussion for more information.

&&

.AVIATION...25/00Z TAF CYCLE...Over the coastal waters and along the
coast...marine stratus has surged north into KOTH, then cover the
remainder of the waters overnight. Conditions near the forward edge
of the stratus will be LIFR in low clouds and fog, but CIGS will
rise to IFR behind the edge with improving visibilities. While the
low conditions will affect coastal communities, inland progress will
be minimal. The land areas that are affected will clear to VFR by
late Wednesday morning, but the lower conditions will persist over
the coastal waters through Wednesday. Over the remainder of the
area, VFR conditions will persist through Wednesday. -FB

&&

.MARINE...Updated 830 PM PDT Tuesday 24 April 2018...Conditions will
be relatively calm through Friday with weak low pressure over the
waters. High pressure will build in from the west Saturday into
Sunday, and small craft conditions are possible Sunday into Sunday
night as northwest swell builds. -FB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 537 PM PDT Tue Apr 24 2018/

SHORT TERM...

Warmer than average temperature will continue to impact the region
today through tomorrow. Some records will probably fall on
Wednesday, especially east of the Cascades. Check out the weather
story on weather.gov/mfr for more details on records and the
temperature forecast.

As for right now, we`re watching some upper level clouds move
through the forecast area, but they appear to be thin enough to
allow temperatures push into the lower 80`s early this afternoon.
If one looks at visible satellite imagery, they can see some
clearing behind this area of upper level clouds. Thinking this
clearing along with some stronger offshore flow will be what helps
us push into the upper 80`s and possibly 90 for Medford tomorrow.
The latest METMFR bulletin shows 91 for a high, but didn`t push
it to 91 because the possibility of some high clouds lingering
later in the day.

Thursday will be cooler as the low out to the west continues it`s
march eastward. Cloud cover will increase and thunderstorms are
expected to build east of the Cascades as a result of this low
moving farther east. Instability is looking pretty good, but
there is plenty of convective inhibition over the Cascades. So
there is still some uncertainty on how widespread thunderstorm
will be on Thursday. As of right now, moderate confidence in
thunderstorm activity on the east side Thursday evening.

Friday will be the coolest of the previous two days as an occluded
front pushes inland. Thunderstorms still remain possible as there
is some lingering instability.

See the long term discussion below for more information on
Saturday and beyond.

LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday night...

The extended period will continue the showery weather. The low
pressure system will be centered across Oregon on Saturday and
will slowly move eastward through the weekend into next week. CAPE
and LIs are indicating that a few thunderstorms will be possible
during this time, particularly for the Cascades and east. The
overall showers are not expected to drop significant rain or snow
amounts, but heavier rainfall will be possible in any
thunderstorms. Snow levels will be 4000 feet, but accumulating
snow should only pose minimal impact this weekend.

Things start to dry out and warm up again beginning Monday. A few
showers may exist on Monday but they should quickly exit the area
by Tuesday. -Schaaf

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.

CA...None.

Pacific Coastal Waters...None.

$$

MSC/CZS/BMS



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