


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
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641 FXUS66 KMFR 132349 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 449 PM PDT Sun Jul 13 2025 .Updated AVIATION Discussion... && .AVIATION...14/00Z TAFs...VFR conditions prevail across the region this afternoon, and will do so through the TAF period for most locations. The marine layer remains just offshore north of Cape Blanco as well as from Gold Beach southward. Meanwhile, widespread cumulus buildups are present east of the Cascades and across northern California. Isolated showers have developed and there`s about a 10-30% chance of a thunderstorms east of the Cascades through this evening. Otherwise, gusty winds will persist in the Umpqua Basin and along the coast before easing some after sunset. Marine stratus is expected to return to coastal locations much like previous nights. However, guidance shows the potential for gusty winds to persist overnight along the coast and this may keep visibilities from reaching LIFR conditions. Regardless, LIFR ceilings are expected to return later this evening. Strong north winds return to the coast and Umpqua Basin fairly early on Monday (between 16z-18z), and gusts up to 35 kts are possible at North Bend. Additionally, another round of isolated showers thunderstorms will be possible across northern California and southern Lake/Klamath Counties Monday afternoon. /BR-y && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 237 PM PDT Sun Jul 13 2025/ DISCUSSION...It will be another warm afternoon with locations reaching 99-104 degrees. Taking the warmer morning in the 65-70 degree range today and the expected highs, the Rogue and Shasta Valleys and Umpqua Basin are under a significant heat risk. This will impact anyone that does not have effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. An Extreme Heat Warning and Heat Advisory is in effect through Tuesday evening for this heat risk. Details can be found in NPWMFR. This afternoon a shortwave will be moving through which could develop some thunderstorms. There is now a 30-40% probability of thunder in portions near central Klamath and Lake counties, so have added this to the 5-8 PM time frame. However as noted in the previous discussion, convective temperatures will need to be met to kick off these storms, and this could be a factor that limits development if it`s not warm enough. Forecast soundings have forecast convective temperatures in the 91-94 degree range this afternoon, and temperatures around that time are expected to be around 90-92 degrees. In terms of overnight temperatures, forecast lows will be in the 60s for more locations including east of the Cascades. There is an 80- 85% probability to see lows at or above 65 degrees in Medford and Roseburg tonight. The northerly/northwesterly flow we`ll have the next few days will bring near surface smoke to central Lake and Klamath counties and Siskiyou and Modoc counties. Higher concentrations of smoke from the Green Fire is forecast in Modoc County Monday afternoon because of a more westerly flow there. Smoke higher in the atmosphere will create hazy skies for more parts of southern Oregon the next few afternoons. Monday afternoon`s temperatures will still be in the 90-100 degree range for most locations. There will be another 10-20% chance of thunderstorms Monday afternoon as another shortwave passes through. This will be concentrated in far eastern Siskiyou and Lake counties. Tuesday`s temperatures will be similar to today, but conditions are forecast to stay dry. Long Term...Wednesday through Sunday...Wednesday`s heat risk has been under review for the need to extend the current heat products. On Wednesday there is still a 70-90% probability to see triple digits in the Medford area with a 60-80% probability for other spots in the Rogue Valley and in the Umpqua Basin. Areas east of the Cascades will likely not be under the risk for the heat, so the Heat Advisory for that side will be finished Tuesday evening. The likely scenario is that Monday afternoon`s update will include having a Heat Advisory for west side locations in Southern Oregon. This has been included in the details section of the NPWMFR. Ridging continues through the rest of the work week with temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal for this time of year. After, a low starts to develop into western Canada. This will help "cool" temperatures back to below the 99-101 degree mark for more west side locations. Looking to still favor drier conditions next weekend and the week after will have cooler temperatures back to near normal. -Hermansen MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Sunday, July 13, 2025...The thermal trough pattern will continue through the middle of next week. This will maintain strong gusty north winds and steep to very steep wind- driven seas across all waters. Gales are expected in the afternoons/evenings mainly south of Port Orford and beyond 5 nm from shore. Conditions could begin to improve around mid-week next week. Otherwise, daily conditions will remain quite similar for the next several days. FIRE WEATHER...Updated 200 PM PDT Sunday, July 13, 2025... There are a few fire weather concerns this afternoon. First and foremost is the thunderstorm potential this afternoon and Monday, which is discussed in the discussion above. Secondly, we`ll see a thermal trough build over locations west of the Cascades through Tuesday with some easterly breezes over the Cascades Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning. It looks like a dry cold front does indeed make it down here behind an upper level wave diving south from British Columbia. The fire weather risk here is limited to moderate as the driest air seems to be above 7000 feet. One would expect some of that drier air to make it lower with some easterly breezes Tuesday night. In any case, we did lower humidities overnight 5 to 10 percentage points below current guidance on the mid slopes west of the Cascades, although that might not be enough. The thermal trough hangs around on Wednesday and temperatures still remain hot west of the Cascades with highs in the lower to mid 100`s. This hot and dry weather persists through the week, although temperatures do trend a bit lower by the weekend. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Tuesday for ORZ024-026. Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Tuesday for ORZ023-025-029>031. CA...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Tuesday for CAZ080-081. Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Tuesday for CAZ082>085. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Gale Warning until 11 PM PDT Tuesday for PZZ356-376. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Tuesday for PZZ350-370. && $$