Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
503 FXUS63 KMKX 300850 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 350 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Some fog and/or low stratus clouds are possible into this morning, with patchy dense fog possible. - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible from later this morning into this evening, as a cold front moves through the area. Gusty winds and small hail may occur with the strongest storms. - Small chances for showers and thunderstorms later in the week, with better chances this weekend. Warmer and more humid conditions for Independence Day and Saturday. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 350 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Today through Tuesday: Some fog and/or low stratus clouds are possible into this morning across the area, with light winds and a moist boundary layer from the recent rainfall. Some middle to high clouds moving northeast through the area may limit the fog and low stratus to be more patchy. Still, patchy dense fog could occur in low lying areas if enough cooling occurs. The fog and low stratus should mix out by middle to late morning. A cold front should gradually shift eastward through the area today, bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms. CAMs are all over the place with the timing and areal extent of the precipitation, and the frontogenesis response with the front is weak to modest. There is a well-defined 500 mb shortwave trough that is moving into the region this afternoon and through the region tonight, so some differential CVA will help with upward vertical motion. A right entrance region of a jet streak may also help out with upward vertical motion this afternoon. There is about 500 to 1000 J/kg or more of mean layer CAPE with daytime heating, with increasing deep layer bulk shear values from 25 to 30 knots in the morning to 40 to 45 knots by early evening. So, could see gusty winds and small hail with the stronger storms. Kept 20 percent chances going into the evening behind the front, as CAMs are showing a possible broken line of showers and storms approaching the area, possibly along the 850 mb trough axis. Highs today should reach the middle 80s this afternoon, with light west to northwest winds. A southeast lake breeze may occur near the lake later this afternoon. The 500 mb shortwave trough will exit the area later tonight into Tuesday, with high pressure southwest of the region providing northwest winds and drier conditions. Highs in the lower to middle 80s are expected, with a southeast lake breeze possible again later in the afternoon near the lake. It should be slightly less humid as well. Wood && .LONG TERM... Issued 350 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Tuesday night through Sunday: Tuesday night into Wednesday, Wisconsin will be on the northern edge of high pressure that will very slowly move from west to east across the Middle Mississippi Valley. The day will be warm, as a large upper level ridge will build off to the west near the spine of the Rockies. Highs are expected to be in the mid 80s at this time. Wednesday evening into Wednesday night, models do depict a weak trough sinking south over the state and largely running into the high pressure and dying out. The NBM paints 15 to 20 percent PoPs over southern WI Wednesday night, with NAM and GFS soundings depicting weak MUCAPE around 500 to 800 J/kg available for thunderstorm fuel. However, dryness to the soundings aloft may mean any storms will likely suffer from dry air entrainment. High pressure will stand pat for Thursday, with temperatures slightly cooled along the lake from north to northeasterly winds behind the trough, while inland temperatures will remain in the mid 80s. For the Fourth of July and into the Fourth of July weekend, temperatures increase as the upper level ridge begins to lean into the eastern half of the US. Highs will be in the upper 80s on the 4th and 5th with heightened dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. Models then show a cold front passing Saturday afternoon/evening, which could bring some thunderstorm potential at the end of the extended period. CMiller && .AVIATION... Issued 350 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Some fog with 1 to 3 mile visibility and/or low stratus clouds of 500 feet AGL or lower are possible into this morning across the area. Some middle to high clouds moving northeast through the area may limit the fog and low stratus to be more patchy. Still, patchy dense fog could occur in low lying areas if enough cooling occurs. The fog and low stratus should mix out by middle to late morning. A cold front should gradually shift eastward through the area today, bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms. There is some uncertainty with the timing and areal extent of any showers and storms. May see gusty winds and small hail with the stronger storms. Chances for showers and storms may linger into this evening. Light west to northwest winds are expected today. A southeast lake breeze may occur near the lake later this afternoon. Light winds tonight will become northwest on Tuesday. High pressure southwest of the region will provide northwest winds and drier conditions for Tuesday. A southeast lake breeze possible again later in the afternoon near the lake. Wood && .MARINE... Issued 350 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Patchy fog may occur over portions of the lake into this morning, with patchy dense fog possible. Any fog should dissipate by midday. Light southwest to south winds are expected today, followed by the passage of a cold front this evening. The front may bring scattered showers and thunderstorms. Gusty winds and small hail may occur with the strongest storms, mainly over southern portions of the lake. Modest west to northwest winds will then prevail later tonight into Tuesday morning, before weakening. Southwest to west winds should then linger Tuesday night into Wednesday, as high pressure around 30.1 inches remains well south of the region. Wood && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee