Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 211644
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1144 AM CDT Mon May 21 2018

.UPDATE...Have hoisted a Dense Fog Advisory for the lakeshore
counties through mid morning Tuesday. Pattern continues to look
favorable heading into tonight with lighter winds and moist
airmass remaining. Already seeing some lakeshore areas down to a
1/2 mile or so.

PC

&&

.AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...Plenty of IFR/LIFR expected through tonight
into Tuesday morning. While the rains will be heading out later
today into this evening, the moisture and increasingly lighter
winds will lead to a sustaining of the stratus and development of
fog. Model trends suggest our eastern forecast area will be most
vulnerable with greatest confidence closer to the lake at this
time. Low level RH progs show a potentially slow erosion of the
stratus Tuesday morning with better improvement during the
afternoon.

PC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 925 AM CDT Mon May 21 2018)

UPDATE...Going forecast looks in good shape. Tweaked temps down
just a smidge. Meso models still show rain exiting later today and
this evening. Monitoring fog trends/webcams especially for tonight
into Tuesday morning. Things could get on the soupy side for
parts of the area with lighter wind regime and plenty of moisture.

PC

MARINE...Main concern will be fog through Tuesday morning. Webcams
showing a lighter fog offshore but things may deteriorate later
today into tonight as winds slacken.

PC

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 615 AM CDT Mon May 21 2018)

UPDATE...

Rain continues to steadily march north into the area this morning.
Rain and a few thunderstorms will persist across the region for
most of the day today.

AVIATION(12Z TAFS)...

Flight conditions will rapidly deteriorate this morning as rain
and low ceilings move into the region. For KMKE and KENW, fog is
expected to develop along Lake Michigan, with easterly winds
pushing that fog inland far enough to affect the terminals.
Elsewhere, occasional fog/mist is expected, but it should not be
as dense as near the lake.

Showers will become less numerous later this evening, but low
clouds will persist overnight, along with some fog. Conditions
should finally start to improve after sunrise on Tuesday.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 320 AM CDT Mon May 21 2018)

SHORT TERM...

Today and Tonight...Forecast Confidence is High...

Showers and a few thunderstorms are pushing north toward the
region early this morning, on the nose of a weak low level jet and
ahead of an approaching mid level trough. This activity should
gradually expand in coverage as it overspreads the area this
morning. Rain will continue through the day today, with a few
thunderstorms also possible, mainly south of I-94. Some patchy fog
is also possible near Lake Michigan, where easterly winds may
bring some fog onshore from the lake.

Temperatures today will be on the cool side, with most locations
only reaching the upper 50s to near 60. For those counties
bordering the lake, the onshore flow will keep readings in the
low 50s.

Showers should become more isolated in nature tonight, with clouds likely
sticking around into Tuesday. Lows tonight will range from the
mid 40s east to low 50s west. Patchy fog will also be possible.

LONG TERM...

Tuesday and Wednesday...Forecast confidence is high:

Could see a little drizzle or some sprinkles Tuesday morning as
the trough exits. Clouds will hang on during the morning, with
some sunshine possible by mid to late afternoon. High temperatures
will climb back to around normal values, except for cooler
conditions near Lake Michigan.

It should be mainly dry Wedensday, though could see an isolated
shower/storm in the west in the afternoon as a wave pushes into
the area. Above normal temps will return on Wednesday.

Thursday through Sunday...Forecast confidence is medium to high:

A warm and moist airmass will be in place late week into the
weekend under southerly low level flow between departing high
pressure and approaching low pressure. Could see multiple rounds
of showers and thunderstorms Thursday through Saturday until the
low and cold front finally clear the area Saturday night.
Confidence is high in a wet pattern, but obviously less confidence
in the timing of individual rounds.

Above normal temperatures will continue for this period. Exact
high temps will depend on the timing of precipitation and the
possibility of clouds/rain during the day. Overall though, this
has the potential to be the warmest and most humid airmass of the
season thus far.

MARINE...

East winds are expected across the nearshore waters today and
tonight. This will result in 2-3 foot waves in most locations.
Some fog may also be possible today and tonight, and conditions
will need to be monitored for the potential for a marine dense fog
advisory.

Conditions should begin to improve on Tuesday as winds become
northwesterly. Light winds will continue into at least lake week,
with little wave action expected. Conditions generally look quiet
until late in the week or the weekend, when thunderstorms will
again be possible.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for WIZ052-060-066-071-
     072.

LM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT Tuesday for LMZ643>646.

&&

$$
Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...Boxell
Tuesday THROUGH Sunday...DDV


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