Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
816 FXUS64 KBMX 021100 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 600 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 128 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2025 Mid-level water vapor imagery shows a large zone of dry air advecting southward into the Tennessee Valley. Per surface obs, the cold front is near the southern portions of the area, so dry air will begin to filter in throughout the day. Most of the residual moisture will be focused across our far south and southeast where some isolated to scattered showers or storms may develop this afternoon, but it really looks like most of the area will stay dry as subsidence begins to increase with a broad ridge building to our west. It`s summertime so don`t get excited about this frontal passage. It was more of a dry air front than anything, so temperatures will still be hot today with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Sunny and hot conditions are expected on Thursday with the ridge axis centered over the Plains and ArkLaTex region. 86/Martin && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 128 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2025 A slight warming trend will begin on Friday as the ridge axis slowly drifts eastward promoting dry conditions and rising 1000-850mb thicknesses. Expect temperatures to warm into the mid 90s Friday through the weekend with overnight lows in the lower 70s. There should be some mixing during the afternoon which will keep humidity levels down compared to what they have been lately, so heat indices will should remain below Heat Advisory criteria, but continue to exercise some caution while spending time outdoors as indices may reach 100F at times each afternoon. A cutoff low will also develop over the Mid-Atlantic region over the weekend, drifting westward through early next week. There`s still model differences on the evolution of this feature, and it may not have much moisture to work with as it translates westward, so time will tell on whether or not it will have much of an appreciable change on our rain chances, but there will be an uptick in routine afternoon activity on Monday and Tuesday. 86/Martin && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 556 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2025 Low CIGS will continue to clear over the next few hours here, with all terminals returning to VFR category by 02/15z. NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND has been added at MGM until further notice due to comms issues. /44/ && .FIRE WEATHER... A cold front is situated to our south, and dry air will begin to filter in to the area. Min RH will remain well above critical thresholds, ranging from 50% in the north to 70% in the south. Winds will be light with a northwesterly component. The drier air will become more widespread by tomorrow with RH ranging from 45-55% during the afternoon. Dry and hot conditions are expected to continue through the week, but soil conditions remain quite saturated and there are no fire weather concerns at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 90 67 91 67 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 88 67 90 68 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 89 68 90 69 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 90 69 91 70 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 89 69 91 70 / 10 0 0 0 Auburn 88 70 91 71 / 30 0 10 0 Montgomery 89 70 91 70 / 30 0 0 0 Troy 88 69 91 70 / 40 10 10 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...86 LONG TERM....86 AVIATION.../44/