250
FXUS64 KLIX 110856
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
356 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 153 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

The upper ridging is now starting to drop into the NW CONUS and
forcing the upper troughing over the west to begin moving SE and
will eventually orient itself more meridionally. The flow over our
area has become more zonal and as the upper trough gets a bit closer
and orients N-S, it will cause a strong divergent area as it couples
with the zonal flow to the south of it. This will set the stage for
several disturbances to be produced after today as there will be
more upper support for these storms to develop. Not much expected
with Sunday`s system as most of it will be to the north of the area.
But there is a chance that several locations in our area could see
some showers and maybe a Tstorm. The highest chances of rain should
be over SW Miss and adjacent parishes of LA during the day. The
better chance of rain will come with the first disturbance that
moves though overnight Sunday into Monday. Models are having issues
resolving the placement, but this should come close enough to the
northern portion of the area to get most if not all the area some
rain.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 153 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Small mesoscale distubances will continue to be produced by this
upper trough to the west and will have support downstream as there
will be plenty of upper divergent flow due to the interaction
between the upper trough and the old zonal flow over the gulf south
that will now start to buckle into an upper ridge pattern over the
eastern gulf into FL. The problem with each of these disturbances is
to find where they will be each day so we will know which areas will
most likely get storms and watering. Each one of these will need to
be closely monitored for the production of severe storms and heavy
rainfall. We are fairly sure of the heavy rainfall picture and this
could be a daily or every other day event through the week. Even
though these storms will be transitory, the more they move over, the
more saturation will occur and then won`t take much to cause some
flooding with strong rain rates. Models will have disagreements with
each other concerning these small systems. So we will need to see
where they initialize and use those models that have the
initialization correct. The second one after Sunday night looks to
move rapidly east Monday after initializing near or south of Austin
Tx Monday morning and be near or over our area by Monday evening
after sunset.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 153 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

VFR through this taf period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 153 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

A cold front will settle over the northern gulf today. Small craft
advisories will be for a short time this morning and should lower by
mid morning. Winds will ease through the day today and remain that
way through Sunday morning. Winds will then begin to rise from the
SE to around 15-20kt as the old boundary starts to move north.
Strong/severe storms along with widespread strong winds will be
possible Monday through Tuesday as disturbances move over the
northern gulf. There is a possiblity that strong disturbances impact
the northern gulf waters through the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  80  61  79  64 /  10  10  20  60
BTR  86  67  85  71 /  10  10  30  60
ASD  85  66  84  70 /   0  10  10  50
MSY  83  72  84  73 /   0  10  20  50
GPT  85  66  83  70 /   0  10  10  50
PQL  86  64  85  68 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for GMZ530-532-
     534-536-538-557.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for GMZ550-552-
     555-570-572-575-577.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for GMZ532-534-
     536-538-557.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for GMZ552-555-
     570-572-575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE