492
FXUS64 KLIX 030911
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
411 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 406 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

The land of MCS`s. These disturbances are going all over the lee
side of the Rockies this morning and have been for a while. Another
weakening one is moving up from southern TX this morning with
another area that is starting up this morning over the NW gulf. The
weakening one will help with providing outflows to this new area of
development today. The old 850mb trough near the coast is still
hanging tough although weak and this trough is somewhat mirrored at
the sfc. This will provide an interaface for this activity to begin
developing along today and this should start this morning. This MCS
type feature that develops eastward should collapse by late morning
or around noon spreading a strong outflow in all directions over our
area. This will help get other storms developing as well. But what
it will do is move some moderate to strong winds(wake low) over the
area again. At the moment, this looks to be in the neighborhood of
up to 40mph weakening with time. Several variables do support the
possibility of an isolated severe storm with this MCS today but they
are not at alarming levels. CAPE values are not even close to being
an issue so not a lot of volatility to take advantage of. The
problem is cloud cover that should start to yield overcast skies by
sunrise or after. There is no advective component of CAPE, so it
would have to be through heating. Saturday on the other hand, will
show a bit less activity for our area, this will be due to a cold
front moving south from the high plains causing things to flow
northward including our weak coastal troughiness.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 406 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Sunday will see this front to the north stall quick over Oklahoma
and Arkansas with a sfc low and attendant front move along it
dropping another trough(not a synoptic cold front as there is no air
mass diff) into the gulf south. This will help gets sh/ts activated
once again. This front gets sent back north Monday and remains well
north through mid week. Another frontal system will orient along the
plains states meridionally or at leat roughly so. This is the same
as what we have been seeing for the last month, so back to the same
processes that were occurring. There is a hint that a strong arctic
cold front may actually make it to the gulf coast by the end of next
week. The word arctic is a bit midleading as temps would be greatly
modified behind it this time of year and only drop highs from the
upper 80s/low 90s back to low to mid 70s. But that is not the issue
with a frontal system like this, this would be more of a problem
with severe storms and flooding. That is if it even reaches the gulf
coast. But since this is far out on the horizon, we will simply need
to wait it out to see what changes or remains the same.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 406 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Mainly IFR to LIFR cigs and vis this morning for most areas. This
will lift into VFR levels later this morning. There is enough of a
chance for each terminal to get a TSRA or two today so this will be
timed in the 12z taf set. There could be some low cigs again tonight
mainly north but most should see MVFR to IFR again overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 406 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Overall synoptic view will be an onshore flow with light winds.
But today could see another MCS feature get started to the west
and develop along the coast to the east before collapsing by late
morning. This could cause some strong winds to move over the
marine areas as another wake low feature forms today. There is no
indication that this same type of feature will form Saturday so
the light onshore flow should commence. This should be the case
each day through mid next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  79  64  86  65 /  60  30  30  10
BTR  83  69  89  69 /  70  20  20   0
ASD  84  68  87  69 /  40  20  10   0
MSY  83  72  87  72 /  50  20  10   0
GPT  82  70  85  70 /  30  10  10   0
PQL  85  68  87  67 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE