096
FXUS61 KCAR 111437
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1037 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak upper level trough of low pressure will cross the area this
morning and begin to swing into the Maritimes this afternoon. High
pressure will build over the area tonight into Saturday then slide
east of the region Saturday night. A new upper trough will approach
Sunday into Monday followed by weak upper ridging on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1035 AM Update...Added chance for thunder over the North Woods
this morning as convection is already beginning to fire in an
area that remained clear of low clouds this morning. Expect
storm development to continue in this region aided by upper-
level support from an approaching small shortwave on the
backside of the larger trough.


We will be on the southern edge of a weak upper level trough of low
pressure sliding into quebec today. The trough axes will cross the
area late this morning then start to lift out to the northeast this
afternoon. Cooler air pooled aloft in this trough combined with the
days heating will result in some thundershowers building up across
the north today. Temperatures will begin to warm aloft this
afternoon as the trough begins to lift out. This may offset the risk
of intense convection. However, if surface heating can occur a
little faster than the warming aloft, a slight net increase in
instability should sustain some convection into the afternoon,
mainly across eastern areas.

The upper trough will continue to lift out to the east northeast
tonight as a large weak area of surface high pressure builds over
the area. Calm air and a clearing sky will likely result in some
patchy fog forming tonight, mainly in valleys, with fog being
most likely anywhere the ground has been moistened by rain.

High pressure and shortwave upper ridging will bring a partly to
mostly sunny day on Saturday with the warmest air over the far
north where highs will be near 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure begins to slide east of Maine during Saturday
night and Sunday as a frontal system slowly approaches from the
west. This will allow winds to turn southerly and dew points to
rise. Patchy fog and low stratus will be possible late Saturday
night into early Sunday morning for Bangor and Downeast. Lows
Saturday night will mainly be in the lower 60s, with 50s for
Coastal Downeast.

As the front moves closer, showers will become possible by
Sunday afternoon. The best chance will be near the Quebec
border, but anywhere north and west of Katahdin will see the
threat of showers. Some thunder will also be possible,
especially near the Quebec border. With southerly flow, the
warmest highs Sunday will be in the North. Some spots could
approach 80 degrees there. Otherwise, highs will be in the 70s,
with 60s at the immediate coast and outer islands. Shower threat
increases Sunday night, but will still be limited to areas north
of Bangor. Lows once again will be in the lower 60s for most
places, with upper 50s Downeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A slow-moving frontal system is forecast to cross the region
Monday. This will bring the threat of showers and thunderstorms,
with the greatest threat being from the Central Highlands
northward. Models show PWAT values between 1.75 and 2.00 inches
by Monday afternoon. This means some heavier downpours could
occur with any thunderstorms. The front weakens Monday night and
Tuesday, reducing the shower and thunderstorm threat. Tuesday
looks to be mostly dry, except for an isolated shower or
thunderstorm in northeastern Aroostook County. Ridging will
bring dry weather Tuesday night and Wednesday. A cold front is
expected to approach the region late week, but timing remains
uncertain. High temperatures will be close to normal Monday, and
above normal Tuesday through Thursday next week.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
MVFR to IFR conditions over parts of the north will improve to
VFR around midday and remain VFR into this evening with the
exception of any thunderstorms today and patchy fog late
tonight. VFR conditions are expected on Saturday. IFR to MVFR
conditions Downeast will improve to VFR around midday into this
evening before dropping back to MVFR or IFR in lower clouds and
some fog late tonight. Conditions will return to MVFR late
morning Saturday. Winds very light S today through Saturday.


SHORT TERM:
Saturday night...IFR/LIFR with any low clouds or FG, mainly BGR
& Downeast. Otherwise, VFR/MVFR. S-SE winds 5 to 10 knots.

Sunday...IFR/LIFR early with any low clouds or FG, mainly BGR
and Downeast. Otherwise, VFR/MVFR with the slight chance of
-SHRA or TS mostly north. S-SE winds 10 to 15 knots.

Sunday night...IFR/LIFR with any low clouds or FG. Otherwise,
VFR/MVFR with a chance of SHRA/TS mostly north. S winds 5 to 10
knots.

Monday through Tuesday...Variable conditions with any -SHRA or
TS. Also, with any low clouds or FG. Otherwise, generally VFR.
S winds 10 to 15 knots Monday. SW-W winds 5 to 10 knots Monday
night. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:
Winds will be light and seas around 3 ft today through Saturday.
Some fog and mist is likely over the waters.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will remain below Small Craft
Advisory criteria Saturday night through the middle of next
week. Patchy fog could reduce visibility on the waters Saturday
night into Sunday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029-
     030.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Bloomer
Short Term...Clark
Long Term...Clark
Aviation...Bloomer/Clark
Marine...Bloomer/Clark