883
FXUS64 KFWD 010039
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
739 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

...New Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/This Evening through Thursday Morning/

As of the issuance time of this product, the dryline remains well
to our west and the 00Z FWD sounding shows that a decent cap
still holds on at around 850mb. Guidance had shown that the
northern section of the dryline would be much closer to our
northwestern counties, allowing any storm that forms to more
easily move into our CWA. However, as we all know: the models do
not always mirror the event`s reality. While there still remains a
low conditional chance for a couple storms to move across the
western portions of North Texas tonight, the likelihood is
becoming less and less. We have persisted with 15-20% isolated
PoPs in our northwestern counties for now to account for the
continued uncertainty of storm resilience as they move east. IF a
storm is able to make it into our area, hail and wind gusts would
be the main threats. Otherwise, expect another night with stratus
by morning and patchy fog potential.

The better storm chances for our area will be later in the day
Wednesday. The afternoon should be relatively quiet with highs in
the 80s region-wide. The dryline to our west will be another focus
point for convective initiation as a shortwave disturbance moves
across the state late Wednesday into Thursday. Majority of CAMs
show that as storms move off the dryline and advance east, rapid
upscale growth will allow for the formation of an MCS to move
across our area. Forecast soundings show deep layer shear, lapse
rates, and instability favorable for strong to severe storms
capable of large hail and damaging winds. Low-level wind shear
profiles look favorable for tornado potential, but the overall
SRH does not look terribly impressive at this time. Thus, there is
a low, but non-zero threat.

Veering to flood potential: stout PWATs in excess of 1.5" are
expected across the region, with the greatest  PWATs up to 2"
generally in our southeast (near/east of I-35 & near/south of
I-20). Coupled with long, skinny CAPE profiles, this storm system
looks to be an efficient rainfall producer. Most likely rainfall
totals over 24 hours (Wed. evening through Thursday afternoon) for
the aforementioned area range from 2-3.5" with isolated higher
amounts up to 5-6". Elsewhere, you can most reasonably expect
~0.5-2".

Prater

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 234 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024/
/Wednesday Night and Beyond/

Bottom Line: An unsettled weather pattern will lead to periodic
chances for thunderstorms through the end of the week. Severe
weather and heavy rainfall will be possible at times, potentially
leading to additional flooding concerns.

Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop off a sharpening
dryline across West Texas late Wednesday afternoon and gradually
progress east toward North and Central Texas late Wednesday
evening into Wednesday night. Ascent associated with a passing
shortwave and rich moisture transport on the nose of a 25-35 kt
low-level jet will likely sustain this convection as it enters our
area and may lead to additional thunderstorm development ahead of
the primary cluster of thunderstorms during the overnight hours.
Abundant moisture marked by surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and
lower 70s and PWATs in the 1.7-1.9" range (approaching
climatological maxima) will support heavy rainfall as this
activity increases in coverage Wednesday night. 20-30 kt storm
motions should be progressive enough to keep a more widespread
flood event from occurring. However, if there are continuous
signals for back-building and/or training thunderstorms in the
newer high-resolution guidance, the threat for localized flash
flooding may increase rapidly, especially with region-wide
saturated soils from the recent rainfall. As of now, a widespread
0.5"-1.5" seems likely with a 10-20% chance for 3+" through
Thursday morning, primarily along/south of I-20 and along/east of
I-35. 20-30kts of effective bulk shear will keep the threat for
widespread severe weather on the low end, but 2000-2500 J/kg
MLCAPE will support at least a marginal threat for severe hail in
a few of the stronger cells.

Most of this activity will push into East Texas by late Thursday
morning leading to a relative lull in thunderstorm activity for
much of Thursday. Additional chances for thunderstorms will
arrive late Thursday into Friday as a cold front approaches from
the north. The spatial coverage of convection late Thursday into
Friday will depend on the southern extent of the frontal passage.
A majority of medium-range guidance keeps the frontal boundary
near the Red River, subsequently keeping the better rain chances
along/north of I-20. Another round of showers and thunderstorms
seems possible over the weekend, with guidance highlighting the
potential for a more potent shortwave entering the Southern Plains
in the Saturday-Sunday timeframe. There are still timing and
location discrepancies, so keep an eye on the forecast through the
week!

Langfeld

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 649 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024/
/00Z TAFs/

Occasionally breezy south-southeast winds will decrease slightly
alongside the eroding cloud cover as we go into this evening.
A surge of MVFR-IFR stratus is expected to blanket the TAF sites
overnight, with MVFR starting around 08Z at ACT and 11 for D10.
IFR cigs will overspread ACT between 11-16Z, with lower
probabilities for D10 between 13-17Z. Patchy mist may be possible
at the airports overnight, but probabilities are low enough to
preclude inclusion in this TAF issuance.

By mid-afternoon tomorrow, the cigs should lift up to low VFR for
the remainder of the TAF period, with occasionally gusty S-SE winds
around 15 kts. The better storm chances will remain outside of
the TAF window, but there are chances for isolated convection
within the TAF sites around 04Z and after. The better storm
chances will be covered in future TAFs.

Prater

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    69  84  67  81  69 /  20  30  80  80  50
Waco                68  83  67  80  69 /   5  30  80  70  40
Paris               65  84  66  77  66 /   5  30  60  80  70
Denton              67  83  65  80  67 /  20  30  80  70  50
McKinney            68  84  66  79  67 /  10  30  80  80  50
Dallas              69  85  67  81  69 /  10  30  80  80  50
Terrell             66  84  66  78  67 /  10  30  80  90  50
Corsicana           68  86  68  80  69 /  10  30  80  80  40
Temple              68  83  67  80  69 /   5  40  70  60  30
Mineral Wells       68  83  66  83  66 /  20  30  80  60  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$