746
FXUS62 KILM 192036
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
436 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure and drier air will move into the area to start
off the work week. Temperatures warm through mid week with rain
chances not returning until Friday into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Other than the potential for lingering showers into the evening,
mainly southern areas, the big question for the near term is
when clouds will depart/dissipate. Forecast shows improving
skies tonight into Monday but it should be noted that abundant
moisture trapped below an inversion in the low levels could
delay this process into Monday. Lows tonight should fall to the
upper 50s to lower 60s with highs Monday in the upper 70s to
lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Dry weather continues for the duration of this period as sfc
high pressure over the Carolinas gradually shifts east and
offshore through the week, with weak mid-level ridging in
place. This will allow for increasing temps each day...highs
mainly in the low 80s Tuesday rising to around 90 by Thursday.
Otherwise, expect daily sea breezes with skies averaging mostly
sunny/clear.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low chances for rain return with shortwave energy passing
through the fairly zonal flow aloft. Daily sea breeze will also
aid in afternoon convection with a warm and moist airmass in
place. PoPs are consistent each day (20-40%) with the fairly
stagnant pattern in place. Some guidance (e.g. 12Z ECMWF) even
keeps it dry most days with shortwave energy staying just off
to the north. Temps remain slightly above normal with highs
averaging in the mid/upr 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Stratus has spread to affect all terminals attm with cigs in the
1100 to 1800 ft range. This is up a little as daytime heating
has risen ceilings a little. Guidance is insistent that cigs
will rise to MVFR by late afternoon and vfr overnight into
Monday as drier air works in from the NE. The forecast reflects
this idea but there are caveats as abundant moisture was noted
in AM soundings below an inversion, particularly MHX. Satellite
shows low clouds all the way up to southern NY with few breaks
attm, so it`s entirely possible that we may see another night of
low cigs tonight. Additionally, some guidance is showing
IFR/MVFR BR developing late tonight, particularly inland.

Extended Outlook...VFR during the day on Monday. VFR should
otherwise prevail with early morning vis or cig restrictions
possible each day through the end of the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Monday...Expect NE winds of 10 to 15 KT tonight and
Monday with 20 KT possible nearer 20 NM on Monday. Seas will
generally run 2 to 4 FT through the period, though 2 footers
will be confined to areas sheltered from NE flow Monday.

Monday Night through Friday...Sub-SCA conditions will continue.
Sfc high pressure over the Carolinas slowly slides farther
offshore through the week, with southerly flow becoming
established Wednesday afternoon through Friday, no higher than
10-15 kt. After 2-4 ft seas Monday night, expect only 1-3 ft
heights with a weak ESE 9-10 second swell component for the
remainder of the week.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for NCZ107.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...31
MARINE...MAS/31