079
FXUS61 KILN 120550
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
150 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the central Great Lakes and
middle Ohio Valley tonight. The high will then push east across
the region Sunday into Sunday night. Clouds will increase on
Monday. Showers and thunderstorm chances will increase Monday
night into Tuesday ahead of the next low pressure system.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Areas of mid clouds that has developed across the area will move
off to the southeast through the rest of the night. Still expect
temperatures to fall into the mid to upper 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
The surface ridge will move east across the region on Sunday.
Mostly sunny skies are expected. A modifying and warming airmass
will move in from the west during the day. This will allow
temperatures to rise into the 70s for highs.

For Sunday night, as the surface ridge moves east, a mid level
ridge axis will move east into the middle Ohio Valley. Clouds
will increase from the west overnight. Lows will be warmer,
mainly in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
On Monday morning, ridging over the southeastern CONUS will be
sliding off to the east, as an upstream trough (possibly with a
closed low) moves into the middle Mississippi Valley by Tuesday
morning. Deep-layer southerly flow ahead of this system will
bring an increase in moisture, with showers beginning to move
into the area by Monday afternoon, and a greater chance of
widespread precipitation by Monday evening. As the upper trough
slowly moves eastward across the Ohio Valley, there will be
occasional chances for showers and storms through Wednesday,
though both the upper low (and eventually open wave) and surface
low will be weakening with time. A southward-moving cold front
will follow into the region behind the surface low on Wednesday,
providing drier and cooler air and ending the chances for
precipitation by Wednesday night. Confidence in this part of the
forecast is medium, with good confidence in the overall
pattern, but still details to work out, particularly in timing
the individual waves of forcing rotating around the trough. Some
of the mesoscale details will help determine if there will be
any severe or flood threats with this system, but there are no
obvious signs of any major issues at this point. Some lower-end
flood risk could develop whenever forcing and moisture transport
maximize, perhaps on Tuesday.

Ridging and surface high pressure will bring drier conditions
on Thursday. Confidence is low in the pattern for Friday and
Saturday, as there remains model disagreement in how quickly
southerly flow and upstream troughing will return to the area.
For now, will keep low chances for precipitation in on both
days.

Temperatures on Monday, ahead of the incoming system, will
reach the mid 70s to around 80. Somewhat cooler conditions are
expected for the next few days, before a warming trend begins
again by the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR will prevail through the period. Mid clouds across the
region at the start of the forecast will move off early. There
could be some diurnal high based cumulus this afternoon at some
locations. Additional cumulus may linger into the latter part of
the period. Winds will be less than 10 kt, starting out west
northwesterly and then backing to the south towards 00Z.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are likely Monday night
into Wednesday, with a period of IFR ceilings and visibilities
possible. Thunderstorms will also be possible Monday into
Tuesday night.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...Hatzos
AVIATION...