494
FXUS64 KLCH 101800
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
100 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1030 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Regional 88Ds show widely scattered convection developing upstream
along the middle TX coast in association with a weak disturbance
aloft in the wrly flow. 12z KLCH sounding showed nothing but dry
air above 900 mb so am a bit skeptical about rain chances through
the day. But having said that, at least have to entertain the
chance that the atmosphere can overachieve and a shower/storm or
two manage to pop up with max heating here later, which latest
blended guidance is advertising. Thus, have inserted a small POP
for mainly the srn 2/3 of the forecast area for this afternoon.

Elsewhere, no changes to inherited grids/zones. Update out
shortly.

25

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

The cold front is still moving though the area this morning
although associated showers and storms have tapered out. Cooler
and drier air will begin to filter into the area, bringing down
our current lower to upper 70s temps and dewpoints. Fair weather
to hold today and tomorrow as a high pressure moves into the area.

Going into Sunday, the high pressure will move off to the east
with southerly flow and moisture rich gulf air moving in. An upper
level cutoff low will move out of the Rockies and into the Plains.
Scattered to numerous showers will become widespread across the
area. We already have saturated grounds and more rounds of heavy
rain coming in, as a result we are in a Slight Risk for excessive
rainfall.

Stigger/87

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Rain event will be ongoing at the start of the forecast period as
upper level low approaches the area along with a weak frontal
boundary. PWATS increase to near 2 inches with good southerly flow.
The weak front will move through ending rain chances by late
Tuesday. With the potential for heavy rainfall, WPC currently has
the region in a slight risk of excessive rainfall.

Return flow will begin on Tuesday with showers and thunderstorms
increasing Wed into Thursday with the approach of another
disturbance and front.

Temperatures will be near seasonal values.

27

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Essentially just a wind forecast as forecast soundings indicate
minimal low-level moisture through the period. Elevated nerly
winds look to continue through the afternoon before relaxing with
sunset.

25

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 305 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

The cold front will continue to move into and through the coastal
waters this morning. Offshore flow will result, with elevated
seas and winds tonight and into tomorrow. While conditions are
expected to remain below advisory criteria, small craft should
exercise caution. Onshore flow will return tomorrow night into
Sunday as the surface high pressure moves off to the east.
Precipitation chances will also increase again Sunday and Monday
as a series of upper level disturbances move across the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  85  60  82  62 /   0   0   0  10
LCH  88  65  85  67 /  20   0   0  10
LFT  89  66  85  68 /  20   0   0  10
BPT  89  68  85  68 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....27
AVIATION...25