488
AWUS01 KWNH 031901
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-040100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0581
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
259 PM EDT Thu Jul 03 2025

Areas affected...New Mexico & West Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 031900Z - 040100Z

SUMMARY...Broad upper-level troughing and an unstable air-mass
coupled with anomalous moisture and saturated soils could result
in additional areas of flash flooding today, especially near burn
scars.

DISCUSSION...An upper-level trough approaching from Arizona will
place a more efficient diffluent flow over much of New Mexico and
as far south as West Texas. GOES-19 visible satellite imagery and
GLM show a growing field of thunderstorms along the Southern
Rockies that continue to strengthen. Visible satellite shows this
area has generally been free of thick low-mid level clouds,
allowing for surface-based heating to occur relatively unimpeded.
RAP mesoanalysis depicts as much as 1,000 J/kg of MLCAPE in place
over eastern NM with 17Z RAP guidance showing anywhere from
1,000-2,000 J/kg later this afternoon. The region continues to
sport highly anomalous moisture aloft with PWATs over the Southern
Rockies and Rio Grande Valley generally between 1.0-1.25", while
the High Plains of eastern New Mexico are more commonly between
1.5-1.75". Regardless of the exact numbers, all these PWATs are
comfortably above the 90th climatological percentile per ECMWF ENS
guidance and even topping the 99th climatological percentile in
southeast New Mexico.

The approaching upper-level trough, copious amounts of moisture,
and modest instability should allow for the thunderstorm threat to
linger into the early evening hours. As the upper trough
approaches, SWrly 850-300mb mean winds should accelerate to >15
kts, which while this does help to keep storms moving along, this
can also further act as a trigger for additional storms or
back-building storms along windward-facing slopes. Storms along
the Sangre De Cristo and Sacramentos could also move northeast
into eastern New Mexico where any outflows emanating off the
terrain or from thunderstorms over western Texas could aid in the
development of thunderstorms producing >1.5"/hr rainfall rates.
NASA SPoRT-LIS 0-40cm soil moisture percentiles still suggest
soils of that depth remains quite saturated, or to the tune of
80-95%. Given the favorable atmospheric parameters and sensitive
soils, there is the potential for widely scattered thunderstorms
to pose a flash flood threat. Burn scars and rugged terrain, as
well as low-lying areas that drain poorly are most at-risk through
this evening.

Mullinax

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   36850564 36730511 36410479 36070451 35400405
            34560351 33720326 32840317 32170336 31250425
            30980511 30970555 31270612 31680679 31800713
            31860746 31980787 32300823 32640823 33060812
            33650803 34140818 34800815 35140796 35540754
            35700743 36030666 36280640 36620594