694
FXUS63 KMPX 302037
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
337 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) of severe weather across south
  central Minnesota this evening. The main threats are damaging
  wind and large hail, along with the chance for an isolated
  tornado or two.

- Unsettled weather pattern continues, with multiple chances for
  rain in the upcoming forecast. The next round of widespread
  rain will be Thursday, followed by additional rain chances
  Saturday and again early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

A pleasant afternoon will quickly return to more rainfall and breezy
conditions tonight. Visible satellite showing partly cloudy to mostly
clear skies across much of central MN and cirrostratus over Western
WI. Radar reflectivity returns an area of scattered showers and
thunderstorms associated with warm front now entering SW MN which
stems from a larger surface low currently located over the SD/NE
border.

The rest of today, CAM guidance feels confident that this initial
band of showers and storms will gradually weaken over SW MN. Over
the next few hours into this evening, an upper-level trough will dig
across the northern plains. The aforementioned surface low will
continue across southern MN and the associated cold front will this
system will tap into a suitable environment capable of producing
strong to severe thunderstorms this evening across central and
southern MN. Timing for the strongest convection reaching central MN
should occur within the next couple of hours, the earliest the twin
cities metro could see storms is 5 PM and most likely by 7 PM. Areas
across western WI can expect the line of storms mainly after 8 PM
into overnight. The primary hazards will be large hail and damaging
wind gusts. Considering the amount of low level shear exceeding
30kts in today`s environment especially along the I-90 corridor, an
isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

Once this system departs to our east, we enter a shortwave train
pattern. High pressure will briefly return Wednesday with partly
cloudy skies and temperatures ranging in the mid 60s before our next
wave tracks across northern MN by Thursday. Forecast guidance
maintaining its confidence about likely PoPs once again across much
of MN/WI for much of the day with QPF amounts ranging between
another 0.5 to 1.0" of rain possible. There is also a marginal
chance of severe thunderstorms across southeastern MN but the track
of this low as well as health of the thermal environment will
greatly decide our chances of seeing any severe convection Thursday
afternoon.

On and off chances for rain and thunder will continue through the
remainder of the forecast period which aligns with the current CPC
outlooks indicating a slightly warmer and wetter 14 day period. By
Friday into early next week, temperatures will range in the mid to
upper 60s and low 70s. By early next week, we will need to keep a
close eye on another low that passes through Monday into Tuesday.
Current track and environment would be suitable for more convection.
Still lots on the table before specifics can be solidified but as
mentioned in the previous discussion, keep the umbrella and rain
slicker handy for the next several days.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

While conditions are currently VFR, showers have already begun
to develop and move into southern MN. Continual development is
expected through this afternoon, with an eventual line of
thunderstorms moving west to east across the southern half of MN
and into WI late this afternoon and into this evening.
Conditions will fall to at least MVFR with IFR likely within
heavier storms. For southern MN terminals (MKT, RWF, and MSP),
VFR expected after midnight after storms move through as skies
clear out. Farther north, MVFR cigs will continue through
Wednesday morning as overcast skies will be slower to clear.
Southeasterly winds will increase to near 10 knots this
afternoon and then flip to westerly after the storms and cold
frontal passage this evening. Winds will increase overnight with
sustained values of 15-20 knots and gusts of 25 to 30 knots
before slowing towards sunrise Wednesday. 40 knot southwesterly
LLWS is also likely for our southern and eastern terminals.

KMSP...Adjusted TEMPO for thunderstorms to be from 00-02Z with
conditions falling to IFR. Showers should end by 04Z while
westerly winds will strengthen into Wednesday morning with gusts
approaching 25-30 knots.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. Wind W 10-15G25kts.
THU...MVFR/-SHRA. Chc IFR. Wind E 10-20G30 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind W 10-15G25kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...CTG