688
FXUS63 KMPX 302301
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
601 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) of severe weather across south
  central Minnesota this evening. The main threats are damaging
  wind and large hail, along with the chance for an isolated
  tornado or two.

- Unsettled weather pattern continues, with multiple chances for
  rain in the upcoming forecast. The next round of widespread
  rain will be Thursday, followed by additional rain chances
  Saturday and again early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 530 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

A pleasant afternoon will quickly return to more rainfall and breezy
conditions tonight. Visible satellite showing partly cloudy to mostly
clear skies across much of central MN and cirrostratus over Western
WI. Radar reflectivity returns an area of scattered showers and
thunderstorms associated with warm front now entering SW MN which
stems from a larger surface low currently located over the SD/NE
border.

The rest of today, CAM guidance feels confident that this initial
band of showers and storms will gradually weaken over SW MN. Over
the next few hours into this evening, an upper-level trough will dig
across the northern plains. The aforementioned surface low will
continue across southern MN and the associated cold front will this
system will tap into a suitable environment capable of producing
strong to severe thunderstorms this evening across central and
southern MN. Timing for the strongest convection reaching central MN
should occur within the next couple of hours, the earliest the twin
cities metro could see storms is 5 PM and most likely by 7 PM. Areas
across western WI can expect the line of storms mainly after 8 PM
into overnight. The primary hazards will be large hail and damaging
wind gusts. Considering the amount of low level shear exceeding
30kts in today`s environment especially along the I-90 corridor, an
isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

Once this system departs to our east, we enter a shortwave train
pattern. High pressure will briefly return Wednesday with partly
cloudy skies and temperatures ranging in the mid 60s before our next
wave tracks across northern MN by Thursday. Forecast guidance
maintaining its confidence about likely PoPs once again across much
of MN/WI for much of the day with QPF amounts ranging between
another 0.5 to 1.0" of rain possible. There is also a marginal
chance of severe thunderstorms across southeastern MN but the track
of this low as well as health of the thermal environment will
greatly decide our chances of seeing any severe convection Thursday
afternoon.

On and off chances for rain and thunder will continue through the
remainder of the forecast period which aligns with the current CPC
outlooks indicating a slightly warmer and wetter 14 day period. By
Friday into early next week, temperatures will range in the mid to
upper 60s and low 70s. By early next week, we will need to keep a
close eye on another low that passes through Monday into Tuesday.
Current track and environment would be suitable for more convection.
Still lots on the table before specifics can be solidified but as
mentioned in the previous discussion, keep the umbrella and rain
slicker handy for the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 530 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

A line of showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will move
across the region this evening. The highest chance for thunder
is at KMSP, KMKT, and KEAU. Visibility could drop down to IFR at
times as the rain moves through, with southwest wind gusts near
20 to 30 kts possible. The rain will move out overnight, with
MVFR clouds to follow before clearing out Wednesday morning.
West/northwest winds will increase Wednesday morning, and then
taper off toward evening.

KMSP...Rain should be over MSP at the start of the TAF period. .
There is a chance for thunder, so have continued that as a
tempo in the TAFs. The rain will exit this evening with MVFR
ceilings this evening, clearing out overnight. Expect

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...MVFR/-RA likely with IFR possible. Wind E 10-20G30 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind W 10-15G25 kts.
SAT...MVFR/-RA. Wind N at 10G15 kts

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...JRB