Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 230545 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1245 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


.AVIATION...Light and variable winds with some passing high clouds
prevail across deep south Texas early this morning. Light winds
overnight will gradually become east late this morning into the
afternoon. VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours with
surface high pressure in control.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 256 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018/

SHORT TERM (Now through Monday night): The weak cold front,
which was associated with a surface low near Louisiana, moved
through Deep South Texas this morning with mainly dry air and a
wind shift to the northeast behind it. Cloud cover has diminished
and moved out of the area for most locations with just a few upper
level clouds streaming overhead. There is no CAA to speak of with
this front, as temperatures this afternoon are still increasing
into the mid 80s, which is near normal for mid April. A pleasant
evening is expected with slightly cooler temperatures overnight
due to light winds and drier air having moved in behind the front.
With near-surface moisture in the lower RGV hanging on, combining
with surface high pressure overhead, low clouds and patchy fog
will be possible after midnight.

On Monday, temperatures will warm up to the mid to upper 80s with
surface winds shifting to the east. Light easterly flow and warm
temperatures may allow for seabreeze development late in the morning
and afternoon, but rain chances generally remain low across the

LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday): Quiet weather will prevail
Tuesday and Wednesday, with a weak ridge aloft and surface high
pressure over the Gulf. A weak cold front will push across the area
Wednesday night to Thursday morning, with slight model timing
differences. The GFS brings the front to the coast at 12z Thursday
while the ECMWF may be just a bit slower/weaker. Differences will
continue into the week, with the ECMWF digging a deeper, slower mid
level trough south across the Plains on Thursday. Thus, while the
GFS brings ridging over deep south Texas and the RGV on Friday, the
ECMWF is able to bring a front through Friday evening. Did not
change the inherited forecast significantly. Continued to carry brief
convection for both the Thursday morning and Friday evening fronts,
though the bulk of the energy will be north of the area. May see a
few storms come off the Sierra Madre Oriental range of Mex Wednesday
night and move toward the CWA. Sensible weather forecast elements do
not differ a whole lot between the two models this week, though the
ECMWF is cooler and cloudier than the GFS in the wake of its Friday
frontal passage. Temperatures overall this week will be near

Now through Monday night: Light to moderate northeast winds will
continue behind a weak cold front today. Surface high pressure
will move overhead tonight, bringing light winds and lower seas
through the rest of the period. As high pressure shifts eastward,
winds will gradually veer to the east Monday afternoon but range
from 5 to 10 knots.

Tuesday through Friday night: Light to moderate east to southeast
winds and low to moderate seas will prevail Tuesday through
Wednesday night. Winds will turn to light northeast or east Thursday
morning as a weak cold front passes across the area. Winds will veer
to southeast again by Thursday night, remaining east to southeast
through Friday night. Advisory condition chances will be low during
this period.




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