Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 221331
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
931 AM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will lead to quiet weather with long awaited
warmer temperatures. Above normal temperatures are expected
through the week with highs in the 60`s and lows in the 40`s.
The next chance of rainfall occurs by Wednesday into Thursday of
next week as low pressure tracks through the northeast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 931 AM EDT Sunday...Forecast remains on track for this
afternoon. The only real change was to lower surface dewpoints
as the boundary layer deepens today and entrains drier air
downward. Some variant or close match to most recent MET MOS
values seemed reasonable at this point, taking values down into
the teens by this afternoon. Have a great day!

Prior discussion...
High pressure will lead to both the long awaited warmer
Springtime temperatures as well as large diurnal swings. The
winds overnight have gone calm and temps are dropping rapidly.
Expect lows near MOS guidance in the upper 20s to even teens in
the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom. As soon as we see
sunlight however anticipate rapid warming across the North
Country. 925mb temps in the +4 to +5 support max temps similar
to yesterday in the low to mid 50s. Its going to be a blue bird
day with plentiful sunshine and mild northwesterly winds.

Heading into the evening hours the surface high will be cresting
over the region and temps should plummet as radiational cooling
takes effect. Boundary layer winds decouple and we will cool
rapidly back into the 20s to low 30s again. High clouds should
be starting to filter in late overnight so that may temper how
cold we get down to. Monday is expected to be another wonderful
North Country day as we warm into the mid 60s with light
southerly flow and no precip to speak of.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 344 AM EDT Sunday...Deep-layer ridge remains in control
Monday night and Tuesday as it shifts east of New England.
Monday night should be tranquil with light wind conditions and
nil PoPs. Will see overnight lows mainly in the mid 30s to
lower 40s. Tuesday should be our warmest day of the stretch,
and the warmest day at BTV since we reached 69F way back on
2/21. Generally looking at mid-upr 60s for afternoon highs with
light S-SW winds across the region. Should see advancing mid-upr
level clouds from southwest-northeast Tuesday afternoon, but
anticipate any showers holding off until after sunset. GFS-MOS
even indicated a high of 70F at BTV, but based on 850mb temps
4-5C and some increase in clouds during peak heating hrs, went
with 68F.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 344 AM EDT Sunday...Diffuse phasing of southern-northern
stream shortwave troughs will bring potential for developing
rain showers Tuesday night (40-60% PoPs), with periods of rain
(70-80% PoPs) on Wednesday and Wed. Night. May see an
additional closed mid-upr level low approaching Friday night
into Saturday, per 00Z GFS. The 00Z ECMWF has a weaker, open
wave toward Saturday with less potential precipitation. Overall
predictability of the pattern is considered lower than normal.
Best NWP consistency is for overcast conditions and
precipitation on Wednesday/Wednesday night, with increasing
spread in ops models and ensemble guidance thereafter. Abundant
clouds and potential precipitation should bring slightly cooler
temperatures, with highs mainly in the mid-upr 50s for
Wednesday-Saturday, and lows generally in the upr 30s-mid 40s.

Looking at Hydrology...still decent amount of snow in the
mountains (99" atop Mt. Mansfield) and upcoming weather will
promote snow melt. However, rainfall appears showery with rainfall
amounts largely around 1/2 inch for the day 4-7 period. Mountain
watersheds will see rises through the week due to the combination
of snow melt and rainfall, but all ensemble guidance and climatology
suggest more rain is needed for flooding issues. Strongest
signals are for the Otter Creek at Center Rutland (CENV1) and
the Ausable River (ASFN6) to potentially reach action stage Wed-
Thu per NAEFS based simulations. Still worth monitoring future
forecasts for any possible changes to rainfall amounts.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 12Z Monday...VFR through the forecast period. SKC with
no precipitation or restrictions to visibility expected. Winds
light and variable overnight, then light west/northwesterly once
again after 14Z Sunday the back to calm overnight.

Outlook...

Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Deal
NEAR TERM...JMG/Deal
SHORT TERM...Banacos
LONG TERM...Banacos
AVIATION...Deal



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