Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA

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FXUS66 KEKA 232155
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
255 PM PDT Mon Apr 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will maintain partly cloudy skies and
dry conditions through the middle of the week with temperatures
above normal in the inland areas. Late week and for the weekend
an upper level low approaching the area will bring cooler
temperatures and the chance for showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...High pressure remains in place across the area today
for a continuation of mostly clear skies and dry conditions.
Coastal areas will begin to see more onshore flow and marine layer
influence as an upper level low starts to approach the area. This
will cool temperatures at the coast and it may spread inland to
the near coastal areas. Wednesday the marine layer will likely be
slightly deeper and the stratus will be a bit more persistent.
Inland temperatures will remain nearly steady through Wednesday.
but a reduction in afternoon high temperatures will be felt
beginning Thursday. Toward Friday and into the weekend the models
start to diverge with their solutions. The ECMWF keeps the low
just off the coast on Friday and moves it onshore on Saturday. The
Canadian is similar, but the GFS quickly ejects the low out of
the area and moves an open trough over the area for the weekend.
Both of these solutions will keep the high temperatures below
normal and there will be showers around. The GFS came around with
better convective parameters (cape/TT`s)to support the addition
of thunderstorms to the forecast for Friday and Sunday as well.
Beyond next weekend solutions range from a strong ridge (the
Canadian), a weak ridge (the ECMWF) and a deep trough (the GFS).
Confidence is low on any particular solution, but a ridge building
back in has been a more consistent solution. MKK/JT


&&

.AVIATION...A ridge of high pressure...plus inland heat troughing...resulted in
predominantly VFR conditions under mostly warm temperatures and sunny
skies today. However, a few pockets of patchy morning IFR fog was
briefly reported at CEC, and a couple of reports of haze at both ACV
and CEC this morning. Overnight and Tuesday morning...concur with
previous discussion: High resolution model data indicates little low
cloud formation over land during the next 24 hours with a low
confidence of some scattered to broken clouds around the Eel River
Delta and offshore Mendocino county (adding North Coast). Winds will
be light.


&&

.MARINE...N winds continue to slowly weaken and as a result,
the steep seas will continue to subside. Wave heights have primarily
fallen below Small Craft Advisory criteria. Conditions will continue
a gradual improving trend through mid-week with winds shifting to
light southerly by week`s end. NW swell trains will continue to
traverse the area through the period.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ470-
     475.

&&

$$

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