Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 241907

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
307 PM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018

...Above Normal Temperatures with Increasing Rain Chances

.NEAR TERM...This afternoon through Sunday...

Surface high pressure across south Florida was shifting gradually
ESE as a frontal system was edging ESE across the Mid-West.
Locally, dry conditions and mostly sunny skis prevailed with above
normal temperatures under SSW winds with highs in the upper 70s
inland to low 70s coast due to the east coast sea breeze. Although
some low level cumulus were starting to pop, such a dry low level
airmass will continue dry conditions. Mid and high clouds will
continue to drift ESE across the area over a mid-upper level ridge
axis that was de-amplifying across the western GOMEX/Mexico.

Tonight dry conditions through about 09Z then a low chance of
passing showers generally from Douglas to Jesup near the Altamaha
River basin as a weakening front approaches from the north. Do not
expect much fog development due to elevated boundary layer winds
and passing clouds bringing partly to mostly cloudy skies. Mild
low temperatures will trend above normal with lows in the 50s,
warmer temperatures across SE GA where more cloud cover is

Sunday rain chances will further increase across SE GA Sunday
morning as frontal zone settles farther south, with enough low
level instability to support isolated tstorms by late morning.
Sunday afternoon rain chances will focus between the Altamaha
River basin and north of the I-10 corridor, with rainfall amounts
generally 0.25 inches or less. South of the frontal zone, breezy
SW winds across NE FL will near 15 mph with gusts near 25 mph due
to good mixing and 850 mb winds 25-30 kts, with a reduction of
winds into the afternoon as cloud cover thickens. NE winds will
increase along the SE GA Sunday afternoon on the north side of the
frontal zone with cloudy skies and a chance of passing showers
settling across NE FL into Sunday evening as the strongest
mid/upper level frontal forcing presses downstream of the area,
but low level convergence along the front and near the coast
continue a chance of showers.

.SHORT TERM...Sunday night through Tuesday night...Cold front across
ne Fl Sunday evening will shift south of the area by Monday morning
as strong surface high pressure wedges down the east coast. Monday
will be cooler with gusty ne winds and a chance of showers mainly
near the east coast. High pressure will start to weaken on Tuesday
with the pressure gradient decreasing as winds veer to the east.
Shower activity will taper off as upper ridge builds to the east
coast with temperatures rebounding to near average levels on Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday...Deep layered ridge will
shift off the east coast on Wednesday. Southeast winds will push the
east coast seabreeze well inland with temperatures near normal on
Wednesday. Airmass will be dry with a mid level cap in place. Upper
trough over the central U.S. will start to push short wave energy
and a moisture axis towards western Ga on Thursday with the 12z GFS
faster with timing than the 12z ECMWF. Concensus shows a chance of
showers and isolated thunder over se Ga Thursday night with a good
chance area wide on Friday. Drier conditions expected for Saturday.
Temperatures will be at or a few degrees above average through the



Prevailing VFR conditions expected. Low probability of MVFR due to
shallow ground fog near GNV between 09-12z, but increasing SW flow
ahead of approaching front will keep fog development minimal, and
lack of significant low level moisture will keep low stratus
development north and west of terminals tonight. Chances for MVFR
cigs encroach upon SSI by midday Sunday with a chance of rain
showers, with deteriorating ceilings and breezy onshore flow
pushing south across the area Sunday night.



High pressure centered over south Florida will drift farther east
and offshore of the Florida Atlantic coast through tonight. SW winds
will increase over the outer waters tonight ahead of a weakening
front with exercise caution conditions expected. The weakening cold
front will shift south of the Altamaha River basin Sunday. The front
will press southward over the Florida waters through Sunday night
trailed by increasing northeast flow into Monday. Strong onshore
flow and building seas will bring advisory conditions to portions of
the local waters through mid-week. Winds shift southerly Wednesday
as high pressure builds east of the local Florida waters.

Rip Currents:

Moderate risk of rip currents today NE FL beaches, low risk for
SE GA beaches. Low risk expected Sunday. Elevated risk (moderate
to high) expected Monday through mid week due to strong onshore


AMG  59  72  48  60 /  20  60  60  20
SSI  59  70  55  61 /   0  70  70  30
JAX  55  78  56  67 /   0  70  70  40
SGJ  58  77  58  69 /   0  30  60  50
GNV  53  80  58  72 /   0  10  40  20
OCF  51  81  57  76 /   0   0  30  20




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