Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 210203

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1000 PM EDT Sun May 20 2018


Strong Atlc Ridge extending from Bermuda to the Carolinas will
maintain a deep and brisk SE flow acrs central FL overnight. Deep
moisture remains overhead as evng RAOBs measured PWat values btwn
1.75"-2.00", while the RAP40 analysis shows H100-H70 mean RH values
btwn 70-80pct upstream. Aloft, RAP40 is picking up an inverted trof
over the NE GOMex/Big Bend area, placing central FL on its ascending
flank. Not surprisingly, H85-H30 omega/H30-H20 divergence fields are
strongly positive over the south half of the peninsula, working
their way north. Deep lyr vort fields are also displaying
instability with a noteworthy axis extending from the FL Straits to
the waters north of the Bahamas.

GFS MOS continues to indicate likely PoPs over the Space/Treasure
Coast and the Lake-O region overnight, decreasing to chc PoPs along
and north of the I-4 corridor. Solution looks reasonable given the
strength/depth of the onshore flow, as well as the available
moisture and instability overhead and upstream. No sig changes to the
aftn fcst package.


.AVIATION...Thru 22/00Z.
Sfc Winds: Thru 21/04Z...E/SE 7-11KTS bcmg SE 3-6KTS. Btwn 21/12Z-
21/15Z...bcmg E/SE 7-11KTS. Btwn 21/15Z-21/18Z...coastal sites E/SE
8-12KTS with ocnl sfc G18-22KTS. Aft 21/18Z...bcmg S/SE 8-12KTS with
ocnl sfc G18-22KTS.

Vsbys/WX/Cigs: Thru 21/06Z...cigs btwn FL100-120 chc MVFR shras.
Btwn 21/06Z-21/12Z...cigs btwn FL040-060...E of KTTS-KOBE nmrs MVFR
shras/chc IFR tsras...W of KTTS-KOBE chc MVFR shras. Btwn 21/12Z-
21/18Z...cigs btwn FL0035-050...coastal sites nmrs MVFR shras/chc
IFR tsras...interior sites chc MVFR shras. Aft 21/18Z...MVFR cigs
btwn FL020-030...interior sites nmrs MVFR shras/chc IFR tsras...
coastal sites chc MVFR shras.


Atlc ridge axis will generate a moderate SE breeze acrs the lcl Atlc
overnight. Poor conditions for small craft overnight as these winds
push a 3-4FT easterly swell into the east FL coast...combined seas 4-
5FT nearshore and 5-6FT offshore...dominant pds btwn 7-8sec north of
Sebastian Inlet, btwn 5-6sec south of the Inlet. Isold shras thru
midnight...bcmg likely from the Cape southward and sct north of the
Cape in the early hrs as a surge of moisture works its way up from
the south.





Short Term/Aviation...Bragaw
Radar/Impact WX.......Smith is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.