Area Forecast Discussion
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FXPQ60 PGUM 252156

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
756 AM ChST Sat May 26 2018

.Marianas Synopsis...
There were scattered clouds around the Marianas early this
morning, with isolated showers mainly to the northwest and
southeast. Combined seas were generally between 3 and 4 feet at
the buoys.


The generally dry weather should continue through the weekend,
with moisture increasing a bit early in the week. It is possible
that there will be some more showers Monday or Tuesday. It is
also possible that there could be a period of scattered showers
during Monday or Tuesday. However, the guidance differs on when
this is most likely to occur and confidence is low, so have not
added them to the forecast at this time. Drier weather returns
later in the week with nothing more than isolated showers.

Some model guidance continues to indicate a circulation near the
Marianas by Saturday or Sunday. There is not much agreement at
all on the timing or location with the NAVGEM having a circulation
northeast of the Marianas by Saturday, the GFS south and west of
the Marianas by Sunday and the ECMWF soesn`t have much of anything
at all. So while any potential development will be watched, it is
way too early to put in the forecast.


Winds have increased a bit and are now moderate, which have caused a
slight bump in wind waves. Seas will remain in the 3 to 4 foot
range and could possibly hit 5 feet over the next few days. There
will be about a foot increase in easterly swell around the middle
of next week. Rip current risk remains moderate through the
weekend and likely beyond.


.Eastern Micronesia...
Widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are seen in Eastern
Micronesia this morning. These are due primarily to upper-level
divergence south of an upper-level trough. A zone of trade-wind
convergence sets up early next week. It is expected to affect Pohnpei
the least, only on Monday. It should affect Majuro Sunday through
Tuesday and Kosrae Monday through Wednesday. Winds of 20 knots or
less and seas of 8 feet or less are below hazardous thresholds, so
no weather related hazards are expected through the middle of next


.Western Micronesia...
The convergence area from Eastern Micronesia could affect Chuuk in
the Monday to Wednesday time frame. Meanwhile, Palau and Yap will be
affected by the convection being caused by the upper-level divergence
south of an upper-level trough. This is creating a band of at least
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, could be numerous
showers with scattered thunderstorms. This activity is expected to
affect Yap Sunday through Monday, and to affect Palau this afternoon
through Monday. Otherwise, winds less than 20 kt and seas less than
6 feet mean we do not anticipate any weather related hazards through
the middle of next week for Western Micronesia either.


Marianas Waters...None.


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