927
FNUS53 KAPX 111852
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
252 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

...More Rain Likely Late Sunday...

.DISCUSSION...The active weather pattern is expected to continue
with another round of showers and embedded thunderstorms expected
late Sunday into early Sunday night. Lesser chances for rain early
in the new work week followed by somewhat better chances once
again later next week. Temperatures are expected to be near
normal over the next few day with a warmup expected late next week
into next weekend. Winds are not expected to be particularly
strong over the next few days.


MIZ016-017-021>023-099-120815-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
252 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent). Patchy fog and
                    frost after 2400.
Min Temperature.....33-38...except around 40 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light. Gusts up to 25 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (19).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Patchy frost
                    until 1200. Chance of rain showers.
Max Temperature.....67-72...except around 60 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......10 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........40-45 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent drier...except 10 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (494).
Mixing Height.......2400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 9 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.02- 0.11 in.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Chance of
                    thunderstorms until 2400. Rain showers likely.
                    Patchy fog after 2400.
Min Temperature.....46-51.
   24 HR Trend......14 degrees warmer...except 7 degrees warmer
                    near the coast.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (41).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.06- 0.34 in.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Patchy fog until
                    1200.
Max Temperature.....69-74...except 52-57 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Min Humidity........34-39 percent...except 46-51 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......11 percent drier...except 5 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (415).
Mixing Height.......3500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-120815-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
252 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (45-55 percent) until 2400, then
                    partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
Min Temperature.....35-40...except 42-47 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (24).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in .

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....65-70...except 48-53 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......12 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........42-47 percent.
   24 HR Trend......26 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (355).
Mixing Height.......2500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 6 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.05 in .

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (45-55 percent). Rain showers
                    likely. Chance of thunderstorms after 2400.
                    Patchy fog after 2400.
Min Temperature.....49-54.
   24 HR Trend......12 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........92-97 percent.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (52).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.04- 0.24 in.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Patchy fog until
                    1200.
Max Temperature.....72-77...except 53-58 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......12 degrees warmer...except 3 degrees warmer
                    near the coast.
Min Humidity........36-41 percent.
   24 HR Trend......20 percent drier...except 13 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (494).
Mixing Height.......4200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.06 in .


$$

MIZ020-025>027-120815-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
252 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent). Patchy fog and
                    frost after 2400.
Min Temperature.....33-38...except 43-48 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light. Gusts up to 25 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (20).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Patchy fog and
                    frost until 1200. Chance of rain showers until
                    1200Slight chance of rain showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....69-74...except around 51 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......12 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........34-39 percent.
   24 HR Trend......13 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (606).
Mixing Height.......2700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 9 mph increasing to southwest
                    around 21 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.02- 0.17 in.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Chance of
                    thunderstorms until 2400. Rain showers likely.
                    Patchy fog after 2400.
Min Temperature.....46-51.
   24 HR Trend......13 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (27).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 9 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.11- 0.59 in.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Patchy fog until
                    1200.
Max Temperature.....68-73...except 48-53 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler...except 10 degrees cooler
                    near the coast.
Min Humidity........36-41 percent...except 45-50 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (273).
Mixing Height.......2500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ031>033-120815-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
252 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent). Patchy fog and
                    frost after 2400.
Min Temperature.....34-39.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (19).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent). Patchy frost
                    until 1200. Slight chance of rain showers until
                    1200Chance of rain showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....70-75...except 63-68 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......12 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........33-38 percent.
   24 HR Trend......11 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (774).
Mixing Height.......3300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 9 mph increasing to around 21
                    mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.05 in .

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Chance of
                    thunderstorms until 2400. Rain showers likely.
                    Patchy fog after 2400.
Min Temperature.....47-52.
   24 HR Trend......15 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........93-98 percent.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (30).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 9 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.21- 0.42 in.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Patchy fog until
                    1200.
Max Temperature.....70-75...except 58-63 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged...except 5 degrees cooler near the
                    coast.
Min Humidity........38-43 percent...except 47-52 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (462).
Mixing Height.......4300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-120815-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
252 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent). Patchy frost
                    after 2400.
Min Temperature.....35-40.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (23).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 9 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Patchy fog until
                    1200. Slight chance of rain showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....69-74.
   24 HR Trend......12 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........36-41 percent.
   24 HR Trend......16 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (638).
Mixing Height.......3100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 6 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.04 in .

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Rain showers
                    likely. Chance of thunderstorms after 2400.
                    Patchy fog after 2400.
Min Temperature.....50-55.
   24 HR Trend......15 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (52).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.08- 0.33 in.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Patchy fog until
                    1200.
Max Temperature.....71-76.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........33-38 percent.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (810).
Mixing Height.......6400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.05 in .


$$

.EXTENDED...

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID
60S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
MID 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

$$

AJS