Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 180825
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
325 AM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

The short term will be dry for most of the area with temperatures
warming to near normal on Thursday.

An area of surface low pressure was centered in northeast Kansas
as of 08Z and is forecast to move into the western Ohio/eastern
Indiana area by 00Z Thursday. The upper level wave was over
Nebraska early this morning and it will move east through the day.
Another weaker shortwave was moving south through northeast
Minnesota and western Lake Superior this morning and was
generating an area of clouds. Much of the guidance is in agreement
keeping most of the precipitation south of the Northland today and
we only have a small chance for rain or snow over southern Price
County for a time this afternoon. Forecast soundings show plenty
of dry air present and even the GFS which does generate some light
QPF has very dry air above 800MB. Any precipitation that does
develop will be quite light. North to northeast winds will
increase this morning, especially around Lake Superior where
gusts around 25 mph will occur. Highs will range from the mid to
upper thirties over northwest Wisconsin where thicker clouds will
occur, to the lower to mid forties over far northern Minnsota
which should see more sun.

High pressure will build into the region tonight and continue into
Thursday providing mostly clear skies. Lows tonight will be
colder than normal with upper teens to lower twenties expected.
Highs Thursday will range from the mid forties to lower fifties.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

After the first half of the month tied for the record coldest on
record for Duluth, normal to slightly above normal temperatures will
be in store this weekend into next week. A very low chance for light
precipitation Sunday night then again Monday night but otherwise a
dry period in store.

On the synoptic scale the broad pattern across North America will be
progressive over the next week or so, with successive mid-level
shortwave troughs tracking across southern Canada helping to keep
the arctic air at bay. In general the storm track will take much of
the precipitation north or south of the Upper Midwest, leading to a
generally dry weekend with temperatures near normal. Late in the
weekend guidance is in good agreement for a weak mid-level shortwave
trough resulting in a chance for light precip along a warm front
Sunday night in northern Minnesota, then a better chance for
precipitation Monday into Tuesday as a cold front slowly tracks from
west to east across the Northland. With milder air in place, most of
this precipitation will fall as rain or a rain/snow mix early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

High pressure will remain to the north through the period as a
storm tracks from the Central Plains into the Mid-Mississippi
Valley. KINL is expected to remain well north of any expected
impacts from this system and remain VFR through the period. Some
lower clouds continue to stream inland off Lake Superior ahead of
the system, affecting KDLH and KHYR. However, these lower CIGS are
still VFR. Lower CIGS will arrive from the west through the
overnight hours at KBRD, KHIB, KDLH and KHYR, bringing MVFR
conditions. These lower CIGS are expected to persist through the
afternoon on Wednesday before quickly clearing out around sunset,
bringing a return to VFR conditions for the end of the period.
There remains some uncertainty as to any possible precipitation in
the KBRD area as latest trends look to keep this activity to the
south of the terminal. There is also the potential for some lower
CIGS at KHYR that could approach IFR, but this potential looks
low.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  38  22  49  28 /  10   0   0   0
INL  45  20  51  25 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  42  25  51  26 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  35  22  48  23 /  10  10   0   0
ASX  35  23  49  26 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM CDT this
     afternoon for LSZ144>147.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ140.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this
     evening for LSZ148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Melde
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...BJH



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