Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
567 FXUS63 KMKX 132045 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 345 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers with embedded thunderstorms will continue this afternoon and evening. A few afternoon thunderstorms may produce briefly gusty winds and marginally severe hail. - Smoke from Canadian wildfires will continue to impact air quality through this afternoon in portions of southwestern Wisconsin. - Additional rounds of showers and storms expected to impact southern Wisconsin late this week and into this weekend. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 345 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Tonight through Tuesday night: Spotty shower and thunderstorm activity should continue into this evening as a cold front sinks south and a lake breeze boundary pushes inland. So far this afternoon, brief gusty winds have been observed along with up to quarter sized hail with the stronger cells. This should be the ceiling of intensity for any more storms that develop this afternoon. Tonight, the front should sink south and thunder should give way to showery precipitation as weak WAA aloft continues north of an area of low pressure that`s expected to move east along the Ohio River Valley. Showery activity will continue for the first half of Tuesday, mainly along and south of I-94, and then we should dry out late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. CMiller && .LONG TERM... Issued 300 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Wednesday through Sunday: Wednesday will feature another day of quiet weather as we transition from weak ridging to another approaching trough. A weak shortwave swinging across MN will start to phase with a shortwave trough over the central Mississippi River Valley. This mid-level forcing, in combination with upper level forcing in the right entrance region of an upper jet streak, will help produce shower and thunderstorm chances Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. This is not a really favorable setup for severe, but it has some potential for marginal stuff (again). The next trough of interest comes across the MN/Canadian border Saturday night, but the better forcing is north of our area. Temps will be warming through the week. Upper ridging will then take hold for the weekend with some differences in timing of the sfc warm frontal passage. A warm weekend is expected with another Sunday possibly in the 80s. Rain chances of 20-30 percent chances are forecast via warm, moist advection. Cronce && .AVIATION... Issued 325 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue this afternoon along and ahead of a cold front that is slowly sinking southward. Winds north of the front will be northerly while winds south of the front will be south to southwesterly and are expected to remain light, save for any sites impacted by thunderstorms, where brief gusty winds may occur. Any ceilings the rest afternoon should be mostly VFR ranging from around 4000 to 7000 ft, with bases around 2500 ft possible with any storms. Overnight, ceilings will lower to MVFR with the lowest heights around 1000ft along the WI/IL border as low pressure passes south of the state. Showery rain will also continue along the border. Low celings along the WI/IL border will continue into the first half of tomorrow, and will rise with time Tuesday afternoon. CMiller && .MARINE... Issued 320 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Low pressure of 29.4 inches and a cold front will slowly sink southeast with time overnight. Behind the front, the pressure gradient will support gusty north to northeast winds over the middle third of the lake, with gusts to 25 knots. These gusts should continue through Tuesday into early Wednesday. High pressure will then build into the upper Great Lakes on Wednesday, allowing winds to become more easterly and ease in strength with time. Locally, a winds and waves will reach Small Craft Advisory conditions tonight and will continue into early Wednesday morning as the north to northeasterly winds become gusty. CMiller && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...1 AM Tuesday to 4 AM Wednesday. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee