Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
708 FXUS63 KMKX 111942 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 242 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm on Sunday, with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Rain chances continue Monday. - Additional rain chances middle to end of the week. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 242 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Rest of this Afternoon through Sunday night: Scattered showers will continue to impact the lakeshore areas mainly north of Milwaukee through this afternoon, within an area of deeper moisture and cyclonic flow. Elsewhere, scattered to broken fair weather cu will persist through late afternoon, before dissipating this evening. Winds will remain breezy from the northwest. High pressure builds into the region this evening, which should result in a period of mostly clear skies, along with light winds. Temperatures are expected to fall into the mid to upper 40s, before leveling off and then slowly rising toward sunrise as warm advection increases across the region, which will also result in an increase in mid and high level clouds. An area of showers and a few thunderstorms associated with the warm advection will develop over northern Wisconsin, but should remain north of the forecast area through Sunday morning. Warm temperatures are expected on Sunday, with gusty southwest winds helping to boost highs into the upper 70s and low 80s. A weak frontal boundary will begin to sink southward into the region during the afternoon hours, setting off scattered showers and thunderstorms. A number of places may remain dry, and those that do see a shower/storm shouldn`t expect the rain to last too long. Rain chances will persist into the late evening as the weak boundary pushes south, before coverage wanes late Sunday night. Boxell && .LONG TERM... Issued 242 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Monday through Saturday: The aforementioned frontal boundary will settle into northern Illinois by early Monday. Lift will increase across the boundary Monday and Monday evening ahead of a shortwave moving across the central Plains, aided by the right entrance region of a strengthening upper jet over the UP and eastern Ontario. This should result in several rounds of showers and thunderstorms across southern Wisconsin, with the greatest concentration along and south of I-94. Highs will be a touch cooler, topping out in the low to mid 70s. High pressure will nose in from the north on Tuesday and Wednesday, with cooler north to northeast flow and dry weather expected. Another series of shortwaves look to affect the region Thursday and/or Friday, with increasing rain chances. Boxell && .AVIATION... Issued 242 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 VFR conditions will continue across the region. Scattered to broken fair weather cu will begin to dissipate late this afternoon. A few showers may affect the Sheboygan terminal for the next few hours, but will be very short lived. Northwest winds will remain breezy through late afternoon as well, before becoming light and variable tonight as high pressure moves into the area. Winds will turn southerly late tonight, becoming gusty from the southwest tomorrow morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected on Sunday afternoon and evening as a weak frontal boundary moves into the area. Boxell && .MARINE... Issued 242 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Northwest winds will become light and variable tonight as weak high pressure moves across the lake. The high will shift east early Sunday morning while a wave of low pressure and its associated cold front moves across northern Lake Michigan Sunday night. This will result in breezy southerly winds on Sunday shifting to northerly and weakening late Sunday night. The cold front will move south on Monday bringing light to modest northerly winds to the entire lake. High pressure is then expected to move across the Great Lakes Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds will be from the north during this time. Gusty north winds may reach Advisory levels on Tuesday. Boxell && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee