900
FXUS63 KMKX 030215 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
915 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms should move through
  parts of the area this evening into the overnight hours,
  before shifting east by early Friday morning.

- Limited rain chances late Saturday into Saturday night,
  followed by additional precipitation chances for the early to
  middle portions of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 915 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Weak low pressure and an associated cold front should push east
northeast across the area this evening into the overnight hours,
before exiting by early Friday morning. There is enough upward
vertical motion along and ahead of these features to help bring
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms through parts of the
area. Instability has weakened with the loss of daytime heating,
but should still see at least a few storms move through. No
severe weather is expected. This activity should move east of
the area by early Friday morning. There may be some fog that
develops near the lake overnight into early Friday morning, with
light winds and lingering moisture.

Wood

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Issued 320 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024)

Tonight and Friday:

Low pressure is stationed over central Iowa north of Des Moines
this afternoon with warm front into far northern Illinois.
Earlier convection that moved through late this morning through
midday formed along nose of H85 moisture advection and on
northern edge of weak elevated CAPE has shifted north of the area
to central Lake Michigan while next round of showers moving into
southwest WI is just ahead of primary lead shortwave lifting
across WI into early evening. Also starting to see sfc based
convection developing over far northern Illinois. Isolated severe
storm has developed recently to the southwest of Chicago.

Warm front that severe cell has formed along is trying to edge
into far southern Wisconsin and should gradually make it but maybe
not until after 20-22z/3-5pm. Warm front very well could get hung
up even longer over far SE Wisconsin closer to Lake Michigan due
to cool/moist and stable SE flow off Lake Michigan. Changes to the
pops/wx through this evening were not too significant. Still like
idea showed by various hi-res models and continuity that showers
and some thunderstorms will redevelop over far southern WI vcnty
of the warm front. This convection will have slightly more
instability to work on especially near the Illinois state line
where if the warm front can fully arrive (sfc dewpoints to around
60) our area will be on the northern edge of MLCAPES up to
1000J/kg. Effective shear for convection to work with is more than
sufficient with at least 30 kts so if convective initiation can
occur, then would have potential for isolated strong to severe
storm, especially with the warm front nearby.

After midnight, main cold front sweeps eastward across the area.
Continued to carry a chance for some showers and isolated thunder
before precip chances end around daybreak as the cold front moves
across Lake Michigan. Forecast soundings show some mid clouds and
low clouds quickly evading from west to east in wake of the front
leading to mostly sunny skies areawide by mid morning. Lows tonight
will settle into mainly the lower 50s while highs on Friday will
reach around 70. Cooler temps are likely in the afternoon near the
lake due to a lake breeze off Lake Michigan.

JLA

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 320 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Friday Night through Thursday:

Precipitation...Dry weather will reside over the forecast area for
Friday night, before the next chance for precip arrives on Saturday
from a disjointed surface cold front and trailing upper-level
trough. Models are still showing the better instability to be south
of the forecast area, where the surface low center is located, but
cannot rule out the low potential for some thunderstorms along the
WI/IL border. This system also appears to move quickly across the
area (exiting by Saturday night), so anticipate the majority of
the forecast area to see QPF amounts less than a half inch.

Surface high pressure follows for Sunday, allowing plenty of
sunshine over the area. Upper-level ridging will then build over the
Upper Mississippi Valley for Monday, as the high pressure gradually
departs and causes low-level winds to turn easterly and increase.

The next system will wrap up over the Northern Plains and allow the
southwest flow ahead of it to bring southern stream energy and
moisture into the Midwest Tuesday into Wednesday. Much uncertainty
remains with this system in terms of timing and placement.
Regardless of this, convective parameters at this time appear to
provide enough support for thunderstorms, potentially strong or
severe, to develop sometime Tuesday afternoon or evening. Given
there is still time for changes to occur, will continue to monitor
the potential for strong or severe storms.

Temperatures...Saturday`s temperatures will be tricky to nail down
given the presence of a cold front and precip. For now, have
temperatures rising into the low to mid 70s for inland locations,
and mid to upper 60s along the lakeshore. Similar temperatures are
expected for Sunday and Monday, with the high pressure overhead.
Tuesday is looking to be the warmest day through the long term
forecast, as the forecast are has the potential to be in the warm
sector. This would allow temperatures to rise into the mid to upper
70s.

Kruk

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 915 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Weak low pressure and an associated cold front should push east
northeast across the area this evening into the overnight hours,
before exiting by early Friday morning. Scattered showers and a
few thunderstorms should move through parts of the area. This
activity should move east of the area by early Friday morning.

There may be some fog with 2 to 5 mile visibility that develops
near the lake overnight into early Friday morning, with light
winds and lingering moisture. Fog is expected to be more
concentrated over Lake Michigan during this time.

Ceilings should drop from VFR category to below 2000 feet AGL
behind the front overnight into early Friday morning, before
moving out by middle morning. Mostly clear skies should return
for the rest of the day, with light winds. Winds should become
east for lakeshore terminals with the lake breeze Friday
afternoon.

Wood

&&

.MARINE...
(Issued 915 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024)

Low pressure around 29.6 inches will move from northeast North
Dakota to far southwest Ontario overnight. South to southeast
winds overnight will shift west on Friday, as a cold front moves
east through the region. Areas of fog will be possible
overnight into Friday morning, prior to winds shifting to the
west, especially over the south half of the lake. Some
possibility for dense fog to occur, and will watch how trends
with visibility go during this period.

Lighter winds are expected Friday afternoon and night, with high
pressure around 30.0 inches moving east through the region. A
cold front will move across Lake Michigan on Saturday afternoon
and evening, before high pressure around 30.1 inches moves into
the region for Sunday. Winds are expected to be light to modest
through the upcoming weekend.

Wood

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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