Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT
280 FXUS65 KMSO 011944 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 144 PM MDT Wed May 1 2024 .DISCUSSION...Low pressure spinning east of the Continental Divide will result in snow over about 4000 feet in elevation for the Glacier Park region, east of about Essex, this evening and overnight tonight. The main impacts of this system will be about 3 to 6 inches of snow on Highway 2 from Essex to Marias Pass, with higher amounts east of the Marias Pass summit. Backcountry travelers in Glacier Park and the surrounding Flathead, Swan, and Mission Ranges will experience winter-like conditions today and on Thursday as the higher peaks look at about 6 to 12 inches of new snow. The low will move east on Thursday. A broad trough will remain over the Northern Rockies on Thursday as the upper level jet stays to our south. Enough moisture will remain for scattered showers and cloudy skies. The best chance for fair weather during the current forecast period will be Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon as a ridge tries to form over the Northern Rockies. High pressure does not last long, though. There is good agreement among model ensemble solutions for a closed low pressure circulation to enter the Pacific Northwest later in the day on Saturday. Showers will begin over north- central Idaho on Saturday evening and spread north and east into western Montana by Sunday morning. Ensemble clusters support an active weather pattern under a general upper level trough with intermittent showers and cooler temperatures Sunday (May 5th) through the first full week of May. Many details are still uncertain, but snow levels will likely drop to at least pass levels once again. && .AVIATION...Low pressure east of the Continental Divide will keep persistent mountain snow showers going near the Divide with reduced ceilings, especially in the Glacier National Park region, and in the vicinity of the Swan and Mission Ranges through early Thursday. The remainder of the region will experience an uptick in afternoon showers with gusty winds of 20-30 kts. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM MDT Thursday for West Glacier Region. ID...None. && $$