010
FXUS66 KMTR 021235
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
534 AM PDT Wed Jul 2 2025

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 212 AM PDT Wed Jul 2 2025

 - Night and morning low clouds clearing to the coast each
   afternoon remains.

 - Near normal temperatures with a slightly below normal
   temperatures Thu & Fri.

 - Breezy northwest winds Thursday afternoon and evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 212 AM PDT Wed Jul 2 2025
(Today and tonight)

For a few days now we`ve been talking about a non-zero chance for
thunderstorms over the North Bay Tuesday evening into Wednesday
morning. So, how`s that playing out? Well, radar has been put into
surveillance mode as it`s not detecting any storms. Synoptically
speaking, we still have an upper low spinning overhead. Spokes of
moisture continue to rotate around the low with a few moisture
pockets traversing the North Bay. Satellite imagery even shows
some of the moisture. LAtest guidance still shows decent
instability and moisture. However, one change from yesterday to
today is the moisture and instability is overlapping with a higher
amount of CINH or inhibition. Additionally, flow aloft at jet
stream level is less divergent and more convergent. We`ll the
situation isn`t favorable for thunderstorms we`ll still be keeping
an eye on it.

Otherwise, marine layer is once again in control with profilers
putting the depth near 1200-1500 feet. Patchy drizzle and fog have
been added to the coastal regions this morning. Marine layer will
once again roll back to the coast by mid-morning with inland
sunshine. Temperatures will be seasonably cool. Marine layer will
move inland again tonight with another round of drizzle/fog.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 240 AM PDT Wed Jul 2 2025 (Thursday through Tuesday)

The former upper low is now a open wave by Thursday with its
sights on the Four Corners region. In its wake, another sharper
upper level trough takes aim at CA. While dry for the forecast
area, the trough will usher in slightly cooler temperatures and
much windier conditions on Thursday. Not strong enough for a wind
advisory, but gusts of 25-40 mph will be possible over the
waters, coastal areas, higher terrain, and inland gaps/passes.

For the upcoming holiday, expect seasonably cool conditions
remains with night/morning clouds with afternoon inland sunshine.

Broad upper level troughing remains Friday and into the weekend
making for a rinse and repeat forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 534 AM PDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Stratus, fog and patchy drizzle /IFR-LIFR/ continue along the
coastline, moving inland on onshore winds. This combination will mix
out back near the coastline during the afternoon with a return of
stratus and fog /IFR-LIFR/ tonight and Thursday morning.

Vicinity of SFO...Stratus /IFR/ prevails to 1630z today then VFR
forecast for the remainder of the day, stratus /IFR/ returns early
Thursday 10z. West to northwest wind 5 to 15 knots.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Stratus, fog and patchy drizzle /IFR-
LIFR/ lifting to MVFR-VFR KSNS by late morning while it may stay
IFR at KMRY today. Stratus and fog /IFR-LIFR/ tonight and Thursday
morning. Mainly onshore winds 5 to 15 knots.


&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 513 AM PDT Wed Jul 2 2025

A strong NW breeze and rough seas will continue through Thursday
before improving late week. A low-amplitude long period southerly
swell will arrive Thursday and persist through Friday.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this
     evening for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Thursday for Mry Bay-
     SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 PM PDT this
     afternoon for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PDT Thursday for
     Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT
     Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM PDT Thursday for Pigeon
     Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM PDT Thursday
     for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 9 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-
     60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....MM
AVIATION...Canepa
MARINE...Canepa

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