Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS65 KABQ 182045 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 245 PM MDT Sun Apr 18 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Isolated rain and mountain snow showers will continue through this evening across southern New Mexico before diminishing after midnight. Temperatures warm several degrees on Monday, but a strong cold front arriving Monday night will result in a sharp cooldown on Tuesday. Strong winds will also be felt across portions of the east Monday night and Tuesday morning behind the cold front. Temperatures rebound Wednesday and Thursday with drier and breezy conditions returning for most. && .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)... Showers and isolated thunderstorms, along with clouds, will become progressively relegated to the southwest third of the state early this evening before diminishing as the upper low/trough continue to slide to the south and west. By Monday, any remaining activity should be confined to the southern border of our CWA. Northwest flow on Monday along with a surface low over southeast CO/northeast NM will result in some gusty winds Monday afternoon, especially from the Farmington area across Clines Corners. Highs Monday overall will be 10-15 degrees warmer than today`s but still about 5-10 degrees below normal. A strong cold front will plunge into northeast NM Monday evening and down the remainder of the plains, finally bursting through gaps in the central mountain chain and into the RGV early Tuesday. Some meager snowfall is possible over far northeast NM and patchy blowing dust is also possible as the boundary sweeps down the plains. Increased wind speeds over most of the guidance near the TX border with the front, where there could be a 1-3 hour period with gusts to around 50 or 55 mph. Colder temperatures in the wake of the front Monday night in eastern NM, especially in the counties along the TX border, are currently forecast to range from about 10 to nearly 20 degrees colder than normal. Based on percentile values and dates for 28 deg F for Clayton, Tucumcari, Clovis and Portales, freeze highlights may need to be considered for those areas. LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)... The backdoor cold front continues to surge south and west early Tuesday morning, likely creating a breezy east canyon wind in the ABQ area. While the strongest winds will certainly be felt in eastern NM Tuesday morning thanks to a strong surface pressure gradient, the front weakens as it moves into central NM, and guidance keeps wind speeds below advisory criteria for ABQ. The strong winds across the east will relax by late morning, but breezy conditions will likely persist through the rest of the day. Cold air advection behind the front will result in a sharp cooldown Tuesday across the east with highs about 15 to 20 degrees cooler compared to Monday. Finally, models continue to depict light precipitation behind the front, but also continue to back off on amounts and coverage. While snow will still be possible across the northern Sangres and far northeast highlands, it will remain light with no significant impacts expected. By Wednesday, flow aloft becomes zonal and strengthens in response to an H5 low over NV. Surface winds will become breezy to windy across the area as a result. Temperatures start to rebound on Wednesday as well, but will still remain several degrees below normal across the plains. That low weakens into an open wave as it moves across CO Wednesday night and Thursday. A few showers will be possible across the northern high terrain, but increased cloud cover may be more likely. From here, low confidence still exists in the forecast late week and into the weekend. On the heels of Wednesday night and Thursday`s wave, another disturbance looks to move into the desert SW. The GFS - which was largely discounted at the moment because it`s been all over the place - deepens it into a strong upper-level that dives southward into northern Mexico, bringing precipitation to portions of the area through Saturday. The ECMWF keeps it as a weak wave that moves across the state on Friday, bringing precipitation to northern NM. Kept the forecast more in line with the ECMWF which has at least been somewhat more consistent over the past couple of days. A warming trend then looks on tap next weekend as a ridge builds overhead. 15 && .FIRE WEATHER... Showers and isolated thunderstorms focused over west central and southwest NM as well as clouds over the southwest half of the state will slowly diminish tonight as an upper trough slowly begins to exit the state. Drier west to northwest winds increase Monday and produce spotty 1-3 hours of critical fire weather conditions Monday afternoon over portions of northwest and east central NM. At this time the forecast areal coverage and duration are not sufficient for any fire weather highlights. A strong cold front will plunge into the eastern plains Monday night and through gaps into the Rio Grande Valley early Tuesday. Any precipitation as a result will be meager and confined to far northeast NM mainly Monday night. A few showers and storms are possible over the northern high terrain Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday but any precipitation will be very localized. The potential for critical fire weather conditions becomes widespread Wednesday afternoon generally along and west of the Continental Divide and where about 5-10 consecutive hours of sub 15 percent humidities are forecast. These conditions will be preceded and followed by poor overnight humidity recovery Tuesday night and Wednesday night. In the eastern plains, low level moisture will slosh in and out, with potential for spotty critical conditions Thursday afternoon along and east of the central mountain chain. Forecast confidence is low late in the week with forecast models indicating the possibility of unsettled weather returning for Thursday night and Friday, but the upper air pattern is in turmoil. && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE Upper trough will continue sagging swd over NM through 19/12Z. Mts occasionally obscured in lcl MVFR cigs over mainly central and wrn NM where isold to sct rain showers and high terrain snow showers will persist and a few short lived tstms are possible. Showers and clouds to diminish aft 19/06Z. Sfc low developing over se CO by 19/15Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 29 68 35 65 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 24 62 27 61 / 10 5 0 0 Cuba............................ 26 61 31 62 / 5 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 22 66 27 68 / 5 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 22 61 28 64 / 10 5 0 0 Grants.......................... 21 64 29 67 / 5 5 0 0 Quemado......................... 25 61 31 67 / 40 5 0 0 Magdalena....................... 31 63 36 68 / 20 10 0 0 Datil........................... 27 61 32 66 / 30 10 0 0 Reserve......................... 28 67 32 74 / 50 10 0 0 Glenwood........................ 38 71 40 77 / 20 10 0 0 Chama........................... 21 56 23 53 / 10 10 5 5 Los Alamos...................... 30 61 36 59 / 5 5 0 0 Pecos........................... 28 61 27 56 / 20 5 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 20 55 22 52 / 5 10 20 10 Red River....................... 20 48 19 46 / 10 10 20 10 Angel Fire...................... 17 51 19 47 / 10 10 10 10 Taos............................ 21 60 26 58 / 5 5 10 5 Mora............................ 22 58 22 51 / 20 5 5 5 Espanola........................ 28 68 29 65 / 5 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 30 62 32 59 / 10 5 0 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 28 65 30 62 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 36 66 38 67 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 37 68 39 68 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 32 71 35 71 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 35 69 39 69 / 5 0 0 0 Belen........................... 35 71 38 72 / 5 5 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 33 70 35 70 / 5 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 34 70 36 71 / 5 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 34 70 37 71 / 5 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 35 70 37 71 / 5 5 0 0 Placitas........................ 34 66 36 65 / 5 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 35 69 38 69 / 5 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 37 71 40 74 / 10 5 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 31 60 31 61 / 10 5 0 0 Tijeras......................... 31 63 32 64 / 10 5 0 0 Edgewood........................ 28 63 30 62 / 5 5 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 25 64 28 62 / 5 5 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 27 60 25 54 / 10 5 0 0 Mountainair..................... 28 61 30 62 / 10 5 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 30 60 31 61 / 10 5 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 35 64 36 67 / 20 10 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 30 57 32 59 / 10 20 0 0 Capulin......................... 29 59 19 42 / 0 20 30 5 Raton........................... 24 63 25 48 / 0 10 30 5 Springer........................ 26 65 25 50 / 0 10 20 5 Las Vegas....................... 28 61 23 49 / 10 5 5 0 Clayton......................... 35 67 23 45 / 0 10 20 0 Roy............................. 31 65 25 46 / 0 5 10 0 Conchas......................... 31 71 27 53 / 0 5 5 0 Santa Rosa...................... 33 69 30 53 / 0 5 5 0 Tucumcari....................... 36 72 31 53 / 0 5 5 0 Clovis.......................... 34 70 29 52 / 0 5 5 0 Portales........................ 35 71 30 55 / 0 5 5 0 Fort Sumner..................... 36 72 34 56 / 0 5 5 0 Roswell......................... 39 73 41 63 / 5 10 0 0 Picacho......................... 33 67 33 56 / 10 10 0 0 Elk............................. 30 63 32 57 / 10 20 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.