National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS65 KABQ 182045
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
245 PM MDT Sun Apr 18 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated rain and mountain snow showers will continue through this
evening across southern New Mexico before diminishing after midnight.
Temperatures warm several degrees on Monday, but a strong cold front
arriving Monday night will result in a sharp cooldown on Tuesday.
Strong winds will also be felt across portions of the east Monday
night and Tuesday morning behind the cold front. Temperatures rebound
Wednesday and Thursday with drier and breezy conditions returning
for most.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms, along with clouds, will become
progressively relegated to the southwest third of the state early
this evening before diminishing as the upper low/trough continue to
slide to the south and west. By Monday, any remaining activity
should be confined to the southern border of our CWA. Northwest flow
on Monday along with a surface low over southeast CO/northeast NM
will result in some gusty winds Monday afternoon, especially from
the Farmington area across Clines Corners. Highs Monday overall will
be 10-15 degrees warmer than today`s but still about 5-10 degrees
below normal.

A strong cold front will plunge into northeast NM Monday evening and
down the remainder of the plains, finally bursting through gaps in
the central mountain chain and into the RGV early Tuesday. Some
meager snowfall is possible over far northeast NM and patchy blowing
dust is also possible as the boundary sweeps down the plains.
Increased wind speeds over most of the guidance near the TX border
with the front, where there could be a 1-3 hour period with gusts to
around 50 or 55 mph.

Colder temperatures in the wake of the front Monday night in eastern
NM, especially in the counties along the TX border, are currently
forecast to range from about 10 to nearly 20 degrees colder than
normal. Based on percentile values and dates for 28 deg F for
Clayton, Tucumcari, Clovis and Portales, freeze highlights may need
to be considered for those areas.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
The backdoor cold front continues to surge south and west early
Tuesday morning, likely creating a breezy east canyon wind in the
ABQ area. While the strongest winds will certainly be felt in eastern
NM Tuesday morning thanks to a strong surface pressure gradient, the
front weakens as it moves into central NM, and guidance keeps wind
speeds below advisory criteria for ABQ. The strong winds across the
east will relax by late morning, but breezy conditions will likely
persist through the rest of the day. Cold air advection behind the
front will result in a sharp cooldown Tuesday across the east with
highs about 15 to 20 degrees cooler compared to Monday. Finally,
models continue to depict light precipitation behind the front, but
also continue to back off on amounts and coverage. While snow will
still be possible across the northern Sangres and far northeast
highlands, it will remain light with no significant impacts expected.

By Wednesday, flow aloft becomes zonal and strengthens in response to
an H5 low over NV. Surface winds will become breezy to windy across
the area as a result. Temperatures start to rebound on Wednesday as
well, but will still remain several degrees below normal across the
plains. That low weakens into an open wave as it moves across CO
Wednesday night and Thursday. A few showers will be possible across
the northern high terrain, but increased cloud cover may be more
likely.

From here, low confidence still exists in the forecast late week and
into the weekend. On the heels of Wednesday night and Thursday`s
wave, another disturbance looks to move into the desert SW. The GFS -
which was largely discounted at the moment because it`s been all
over the place - deepens it into a strong upper-level that dives
southward into northern Mexico, bringing precipitation to portions of
the area through Saturday. The ECMWF keeps it as a weak wave that
moves across the state on Friday, bringing precipitation to northern
NM. Kept the forecast more in line with the ECMWF which has at least
been somewhat more consistent over the past couple of days. A
warming trend then looks on tap next weekend as a ridge builds
overhead.

15

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms focused over west central and
southwest NM as well as clouds over the southwest half of the state
will slowly diminish tonight as an upper trough slowly begins to
exit the state. Drier west to northwest winds increase Monday and
produce spotty 1-3 hours of critical fire weather conditions Monday
afternoon over portions of northwest and east central NM. At this
time the forecast areal coverage and duration are not sufficient for
any fire weather highlights.

A strong cold front will plunge into the eastern plains Monday night
and through gaps into the Rio Grande Valley early Tuesday. Any
precipitation as a result will be meager and confined to far
northeast NM mainly Monday night. A few showers and storms are
possible over the northern high terrain Tuesday, Wednesday and
Thursday but any precipitation will be very localized.

The potential for critical fire weather conditions becomes
widespread Wednesday afternoon generally along and west of the
Continental Divide and where about 5-10 consecutive hours of sub 15
percent humidities are forecast. These conditions will be preceded
and followed by poor overnight humidity recovery Tuesday night and
Wednesday night.

In the eastern plains, low level moisture will slosh in and out,
with potential for spotty critical conditions Thursday afternoon
along and east of the central mountain chain. Forecast confidence is
low late in the week with forecast models indicating the possibility
of unsettled weather returning for Thursday night and Friday, but
the upper air pattern is in turmoil.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Upper trough will continue sagging swd over NM through 19/12Z. Mts
occasionally obscured in lcl MVFR cigs over mainly central and wrn
NM where isold to sct rain showers and high terrain snow showers will
persist and a few short lived tstms are possible. Showers and clouds
to diminish aft 19/06Z. Sfc low developing over se CO by 19/15Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  29  68  35  65 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  24  62  27  61 /  10   5   0   0
Cuba............................  26  61  31  62 /   5   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  22  66  27  68 /   5   0   0   0
El Morro........................  22  61  28  64 /  10   5   0   0
Grants..........................  21  64  29  67 /   5   5   0   0
Quemado.........................  25  61  31  67 /  40   5   0   0
Magdalena.......................  31  63  36  68 /  20  10   0   0
Datil...........................  27  61  32  66 /  30  10   0   0
Reserve.........................  28  67  32  74 /  50  10   0   0
Glenwood........................  38  71  40  77 /  20  10   0   0
Chama...........................  21  56  23  53 /  10  10   5   5
Los Alamos......................  30  61  36  59 /   5   5   0   0
Pecos...........................  28  61  27  56 /  20   5   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  20  55  22  52 /   5  10  20  10
Red River.......................  20  48  19  46 /  10  10  20  10
Angel Fire......................  17  51  19  47 /  10  10  10  10
Taos............................  21  60  26  58 /   5   5  10   5
Mora............................  22  58  22  51 /  20   5   5   5
Espanola........................  28  68  29  65 /   5   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  30  62  32  59 /  10   5   0   5
Santa Fe Airport................  28  65  30  62 /   5   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  36  66  38  67 /   5   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  37  68  39  68 /   5   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  32  71  35  71 /   5   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  35  69  39  69 /   5   0   0   0
Belen...........................  35  71  38  72 /   5   5   0   0
Bernalillo......................  33  70  35  70 /   5   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  34  70  36  71 /   5   0   0   0
Corrales........................  34  70  37  71 /   5   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  35  70  37  71 /   5   5   0   0
Placitas........................  34  66  36  65 /   5   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  35  69  38  69 /   5   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  37  71  40  74 /  10   5   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  31  60  31  61 /  10   5   0   0
Tijeras.........................  31  63  32  64 /  10   5   0   0
Edgewood........................  28  63  30  62 /   5   5   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  25  64  28  62 /   5   5   0   0
Clines Corners..................  27  60  25  54 /  10   5   0   0
Mountainair.....................  28  61  30  62 /  10   5   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  30  60  31  61 /  10   5   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  35  64  36  67 /  20  10   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  30  57  32  59 /  10  20   0   0
Capulin.........................  29  59  19  42 /   0  20  30   5
Raton...........................  24  63  25  48 /   0  10  30   5
Springer........................  26  65  25  50 /   0  10  20   5
Las Vegas.......................  28  61  23  49 /  10   5   5   0
Clayton.........................  35  67  23  45 /   0  10  20   0
Roy.............................  31  65  25  46 /   0   5  10   0
Conchas.........................  31  71  27  53 /   0   5   5   0
Santa Rosa......................  33  69  30  53 /   0   5   5   0
Tucumcari.......................  36  72  31  53 /   0   5   5   0
Clovis..........................  34  70  29  52 /   0   5   5   0
Portales........................  35  71  30  55 /   0   5   5   0
Fort Sumner.....................  36  72  34  56 /   0   5   5   0
Roswell.........................  39  73  41  63 /   5  10   0   0
Picacho.........................  33  67  33  56 /  10  10   0   0
Elk.............................  30  63  32  57 /  10  20   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$