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000
FXUS65 KABQ 041142 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
442 AM MST Thu Mar 4 2021

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
A round of showers developing ahead of an approaching upper level low
may bring short-lived MVFR conditions to KFMN and KGUP this morning
into early afternoon. Areas of mountain obscurations will develop
today as well, mainly across the northern mountains, then gradually
dissipate overnight. Strong winds will develop today, with the
potential for patches of blowing dust to develop across eastern NM
and possibly impact KTCC and KROW. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail
and are forecast to persist with windy conditions through at least
early evening.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...237 AM MST Thu Mar 4 2021...
.SYNOPSIS...
Windy to very windy and cooler weather is forecast for today as a
Pacific storm system slides east along the Colorado border. Scattered
snow showers will favor the northern mountains through the day with
only slight chances for rain or snow showers elsewhere. Winds decrease
on Friday with high pressure building over the region from the west.
The warmest temperatures so far this year are forecast by Sunday and
Monday with strong winds and cooler temperatures returning Tuesday
and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...

A very dry atmosphere over our area preceding a Pacific low,
currently progressing east along the AZ/UT border per the latest
water vapor satellite imagery, will significantly limit
precipitation today except for along the peaks and higher west-
facing slopes of the northern mountains due to strong mechanical
forcing. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the Tusas
Mountains where up to 6" of snow is possible across the peaks.
Perhaps the bigger impact associated with the Pacific low as it
moves rapidly along the NM/CO border later today will be windy to
locally very windy conditions along with the potential for blowing
dust. Added the Sandia/Manzanos, Estancia Valley, South Central
Highlands and Chaves County to the Wind Advisory for today.
Otherwise, today will be cooler than yesterday by 5-15 degrees and
below normal central and west. The eastern plains will be 5-10
degrees above normal thanks to strong downslope winds and cold air
advection delayed there until later this afternoon.

Strong winds will persist across the northeast plains on the
backside of the ejecting upper low overnight and a Wind Advisory may
be required. A very stable atmosphere will prevail Friday as a
fairly amplified upper level ridge moves in behind the departing
upper low and easterly flow prevails near the surface, bringing
below normal temperatures for the eastern plains.

LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
Models agree that a high amplitude ridge axis will move overhead
Friday night into early Saturday. Dry weather with light winds and
warming temperatures will result. By Saturday night, a dry and very
weak upper trough slides eastward through the state. The wind shift
near and above mountain-top level will result in a lee side surface
low in eastern CO and northeast NM. Breezy winds will likely keep low
temperatures rather mild for eastern portions of the state Sunday
morning. The progressive pattern continues with another ridge
building overhead Sunday. The warmest temperatures so far this year
are looking more likely for Sunday and Monday as a result.

For what seems like an eternity of the same or a very similar upper
level flow pattern in the EPAC and Western U.S. continues through
much of next week with relatively deep upper-level troughs/closed
lows dropping southeastward through OR and CA. The increasing flow
ahead of this low will result in wind increases for Tuesday and
Wednesday along with slight chances for a few showers across mainly
the northern mountains given sufficient mid-level moisture.

Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is forecast to remain weak and
quasi- stuck through the next couple of weeks thanks to a continuing
weak La Nina. The resulting near neutral or weak negative Pacific-
North American pattern will likely hold for at least another couple
of weeks.

11/33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A Pacific low and associated cold front are on approach and will
move across the region later today through tonight. Strong winds
will develop later today and when combined with downslope warming
will bring critical fire weather conditions to the northeast and
east central plains, where fuels may be receptive to the spread of
fire. The Pacific low will bring chances for wetting precipitation,
mostly in the form of snow, to the northern mountains and
surrounding high terrain. An upper level ridge will follow Friday
into Saturday. The southwesterlies will trend up Sunday through
early next week with temperatures rising above to well above normal.
Winds will be on the uptrend from Sunday through the middle of next
week, but the jetstream will bring Pacific moisture into the region
which would limit the potential for critical fire weather
conditions.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM MST this evening for
the following zones... NMZ223-229-232>237.

Wind Advisory from noon today to 6 PM MST this evening for the
following zones... NMZ221-222-224-238.

Red Flag Warning from noon today to 6 PM MST this evening for the
following zones... NMZ104-108.

Wind Advisory until 6 PM MST this evening for the following zones...
 NMZ226-239-240.

Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for the
following zones... NMZ210.

&&

$$