394
FXUS65 KABQ 051215 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
615 AM MDT Sun May 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 308 AM MDT Sun May 5 2024

A windy and dry period will begin today and continue through
Wednesday. This will keep a prolonged threat of high fire danger
and the potential for rapid fire spread going through the middle
of the week. A cold front will sweep through New Mexico tonight
into early Monday morning, and winds will remain strong and gusty
during the frontal passage. A few showers will also quickly race
across northern New Mexico tonight, but these will not bring much
in the way of appreciable precipitation. Temperatures will
fluctuate each day, running a bit cooler on Monday, rising some on
Tuesday, only to fall a few to several degrees on Wednesday.
Temperatures then look to hover slightly below normal through
Thursday and Friday with isolated to scattered thunderstorms
returning to the forecast in north central to northeastern areas
of New Mexico.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 308 AM MDT Sun May 5 2024

Widespread low clouds east of the central mountain chain, as well
as Santa Fe, will retreat from the west this morning finally
dissipating along the eastern border toward midday.

A broad longwave trough carving its way into the western US, with
multiple shortwaves moving through it, will steer the polar
jetstream over the forecast area today through Monday and beyond.
Southwest wind gusts today should peak from 40-55 mph across the
northwest two thirds of the forecast area, and from 30-40 mph across
the southeast third.  With this forecast package we will issue a
Wind Advisory for the Chuska Mountains and Gallup area, as well as
for Raton and Raton Pass, for this afternoon into the evening. The
flow aloft looks to peak tonight as a Pacific cold front pushes
through from the west, so winds won`t die down in the evening like
they normally do. Will issue a High Wind Watch for the Sangre de
Cristo Mountains, Raton Pass to Capulin area, and also Clines
Corners for late this evening through Monday morning, where gusts
should peak in the 50 to 70 mph range.  In addition, scattered to
isolated rain and snow showers are forecast this evening from the
northern mountains westward, but any accumulations will be light.

Westerly wind gusts Monday afternoon look to peak in the 45-55 mph
range along and east of the central mountain chain, and from 35 to
45 mph further west. After high temperatures varying from near to
around 7 degrees above 1991-2020 averages today, readings will fall
a few to 15 degrees in most places on Monday. Humidities will also
be very low today through Monday with widespread fire weather
concerns.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 308 AM MDT Sun May 5 2024

Winds at the surface should decouple and reduce in speed Monday
evening while the westerly flow aloft remains stiff. Currently,
700 mb winds are progged to range from 35 to 45 kt over much over
the central mountain chain eastward through Tuesday morning, so
there still could be some occasional mountain wave crashes, but
most lower elevation sites should have a nocturnal lull. The upper
low is shown to pivot into northeastern MT Tuesday. Closer to
home, the speeds aloft do not alter all that much into the daytime
Tuesday, broadly retaining speeds of 35 to 45 kt at 700 mb with
the daily lee-side low setting up shop near the northeast corner
of NM. This will drive a west to slightly southwest component that
will boost temperatures a few degrees Tuesday afternoon while
mostly clear skies prevail.

The primary upper low will wobble over the Dakotas and northern
NE Tuesday night into Wednesday while a shortwave trough drops
west of the Rockies and then across the Four Corners area early in
the day. This shortwave will then trek along the CO border
through the daytime, dragging a bit of a northwesterly component
and cooler air toward NM. It will keep winds strong well into
Tuesday evening, but by the daytime Wednesday winds will not quite
have the potential to be as strong as Tuesday. With the cooler
air seeping in on Wednesday, vertical mixing heights will start to
lower and a less optimal surface low placement is expected in the
afternoon.

A pattern shift finally looks to get underway into Thursday and
Friday and it will likely be a welcome one, offering a break from
the widespread persistent windy conditions. This will be the
result of another shortwave that drops west of the Rockies again
and pulls into the Great Basin as a broader cut-off low. This will
draw in cooler and slightly more moist air into NM via the east
Thursday and then more-so on Friday. Showers and thunderstorms
would take shape over the northern mountains and adjacent
highlands Thursday, expanding to the northeastern plains Friday.
While ample directional wind shear would be present, surface
dewpoints still look to be a bit too anemic for a robust severe
weather event, but if moisture advection persists into Saturday as
advertised that could nudge chances upward.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 550 AM MDT Sun May 5 2024

Widespread low clouds and areas of patchy fog will continue to
produce MVFR and IFR conditions east of the central mountain
chain, as well as at KSAF and KAXX, through the early morning
hours, then gradual improvement is forecast from west to east
during mid-to-late morning. Otherwise, south and southwest winds
will become strong today. The flow aloft will strengthen further
after sunset, and a gusty Pacific cold front will cross from the
west tonight, keeping winds strong into the late night hours.
There will also be a southwesterly or westerly wind shift with the
front. During the late night and early morning hours, high
resolution models depict mountain wave activity with strong
downslope winds on the upper east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo
Mountains. The potential exists for these strong downslope winds
to work their way over KRTN and/or KLVS from 09-15Z. In addition
tonight, over north central, northwest and west central areas,
the front will be accompanied by scattered to isolated rain and
snow showers lowering flight categories some and producing
mountain obscurations.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 308 AM MDT Sun May 5 2024

...FIRE GROWING PATTERN TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A persistent fire growing pattern will then develop today through
mid week as a broad longwave trough sets up over the western US with
multiple shortwave troughs rotating through it. These will keep the
flow aloft dry and strong over NM with daily rounds of widespread
critical fire weather conditions, except for some light rain and
snow showers from the northern mountains westward this evening. With
this forecast package will upgrade to a Red Flag Warning for Monday
and issue a Fire Weather Watch areawide for Tuesday. The latest
model guidance strengthened surface winds a few hours sooner over
western areas on Monday, so the Red Flag Warning no longer has
staggered start times between western and eastern areas that day.
Models differ significantly in the track and timing of a low
pressure system over the western US on Thursday, but there is some
agreement on weaker winds that day with a break from critical fire
weather conditions. A moist backdoor front will probably also push
through the forecast area during the latter half of the work week
with a chance for showers and thunderstorms, but confidence on
timing is low due to model differences.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  76  36  63  34 /  10  30   0   0
Dulce...........................  73  24  58  27 /  10  50   5   0
Cuba............................  73  33  60  32 /   5  20   0   0
Gallup..........................  74  29  64  30 /   0  20   0   0
El Morro........................  71  32  60  30 /   0  10   0   0
Grants..........................  76  32  65  29 /   0   5   0   0
Quemado.........................  72  36  65  32 /   0   5   0   0
Magdalena.......................  77  42  70  41 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  72  38  65  34 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  77  35  75  30 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  82  48  78  42 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  66  24  52  27 /  10  50  10   0
Los Alamos......................  72  40  60  40 /   5  10   0   0
Pecos...........................  73  40  60  37 /   5   5   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  67  37  54  34 /   5  20   5   0
Red River.......................  64  29  52  28 /   5  20  10   0
Angel Fire......................  66  28  52  29 /   5  10   5   0
Taos............................  73  34  60  28 /   5  20   5   0
Mora............................  71  37  60  36 /  10   5   0   0
Espanola........................  79  43  68  38 /   5  10   0   0
Santa Fe........................  75  41  62  37 /   5  10   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  78  41  66  35 /   0   5   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  80  47  70  42 /   0   5   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  82  47  72  43 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  84  47  75  37 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  82  47  72  43 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  84  46  75  39 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  83  47  72  41 /   0   5   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  84  46  75  37 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  83  47  73  41 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  84  47  75  38 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  78  44  67  41 /   0   5   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  82  47  72  42 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  86  50  82  45 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  72  42  62  41 /   0   5   0   0
Tijeras.........................  75  43  66  40 /   0   5   0   0
Edgewood........................  77  42  67  38 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  78  40  68  35 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  74  39  64  36 /   5   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  75  43  67  40 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  75  44  69  39 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  79  54  76  48 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  73  49  69  44 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  70  44  64  34 /  10   5   0   0
Raton...........................  74  42  67  34 /   5   5   0   0
Springer........................  75  44  67  36 /  10   5   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  73  42  65  38 /  10   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  75  54  74  42 /  10   5   0   0
Roy.............................  73  49  70  41 /  10   5   0   0
Conchas.........................  82  54  76  43 /  10   5   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  79  49  72  42 /  10   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  81  54  77  44 /  10  10   0   0
Clovis..........................  79  57  80  47 /   5  10   0   0
Portales........................  81  57  83  46 /   5  10   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  82  53  78  46 /  10   5   0   0
Roswell.........................  88  56  88  51 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  84  52  79  47 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  82  52  78  46 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 10 PM MDT this evening for
NMZ101-105-106-109-120>124.

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 10 PM MDT Monday for NMZ101-
104>106-109-120>126.

Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
for NMZ101-104>106-109-120>126.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 2 AM MDT Monday for
NMZ202-205.

Wind Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM MDT this evening
for NMZ227-228.

High Wind Watch from this evening through Monday morning for
NMZ213>215-223-227.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...44