-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
615
FXUS65 KABQ 041727 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1127 AM MDT Sat May 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 208 AM MDT Sat May 4 2024

A cold front is currently racing southwestward over the plains of
New Mexico and toward the Rio Grande valley and eventually the
Continental Divide. This will lead to very gusty winds in eastern
Albuquerque, particularly this morning. As the front encounters
moisture in the east central to southeastern plains this
afternoon, it is expected to lead to shower and thunderstorm
development with a few strong or even severe storms possible.
Windy south and southwest winds will then develop on Sunday with
drier air overtaking western and central areas of New Mexico. The
dry air will spread into eastern areas of the state by Monday,
Tuesday, and Wednesday with breezy to windy conditions remaining
common. The dry and windy conditions could lead to high fire
danger and rapid fire spread Sunday through Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 208 AM MDT Sat May 4 2024

A gusty backdoor cold front surging south and southwestward through
the eastern plains will push through gaps in the central mountain
chain early this morning with a fairly strong east wind below
canyons opening into the central valleys.  Gusts will probably reach
around 45 mph below Tijeras Canyon in Albuquerque, up to 40 mph in
the Santa Fe and Carrizozo areas. The strong gap winds should taper
off during late morning. Meanwhile, areas of low clouds over the far
eastern plains should break up by late morning. This afternoon and
evening, a disturbance crossing in southwest flow aloft will
interact with low level moisture delivered by the backdoor front to
produce scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly over
northern and eastern parts of the forecast area. Shear and
instability look sufficient for strong to severe thunderstorms east
of the central mountain chain and south of I-40, where large hail,
damaging winds, and an isolated tornado will be possible. Meanwhile,
over northwest areas, and in the Albuquerque area, some
thunderstorms will produce dry microbursts with little  or no rain
and localized/erratic gusts up to 50 mph. Late tonight, as the
disturbance gradually exits eastern NM, scattered to isolated
showers and thunderstorms will continue to be possible mainly east
of the central mountain chain.  A few showers could linger over
northeast and east central areas into Sunday morning.

Otherwise, high temperatures will fall a few to as much as
15 degrees this afternoon across central and eastern areas compared
to Friday`s readings. Temperatures should then rebound a few to 9
degrees there on Sunday. A strong low pressure system crossing
the Great Basin on Sunday will strengthen the flow aloft over NM.
There will also be ample atmospheric mixing as high temperatures
climb near to around 7 degrees above 1991-2020 averages, enabling
wind gusts to reach 40-55 mph across northern, central, and
eastern parts of the forecast area during the afternoon, and up to
35 mph across the southeast. Meanwhile, humidities will drop into
the single digits across central and western areas, where fire
weather concerns will be widespread.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 208 AM MDT Sat May 4 2024

The upper low will pull away from the Great Basin and toward the
central to northern Rockies Sunday night. This will drag the mid
level jet across NM during this time, somewhat of a good thing, as
it will not be crossing during peak heating which will limit the
potential of strong surface winds. Still, with a broad area of 700
mb flow expected to reach 40 to 55 kt, initially from the
southwest, then turning westerly after the frontal passage, there
should be very gusty winds on ridge tops and peaks through Monday
morning with the potential for some mountain wave activity. The
bulk of the stronger forcing aloft will be drug into CO with
generally fringe showers expected along the NM-CO border Sunday
night into Monday. Even while the primary vort lobe pivots into
the northern Great Plains Monday, there will be enough of a
longwave trough getting carved out to keep stiff westerlies going
over NM through the afternoon while temperatures run cooler by
several degrees.

This upper level trend of stiff westerly flow aloft over NM will
continue into Tuesday and even Wednesday while the low loops
around the Dakotas and MT/WY. Lee-side surface lows will redevelop
each day, keeping a sufficient gradient in place with a well-
mixed boundary layer that will transport the stronger momentum
aloft toward the surface. The placement of the upper low on
Wednesday will allow a satellite vort lobe to orbit around and
clip NM. This will bring slightly cooler air in with more of a
northwesterly wind component for several zones late Wednesday.

Subsequent shortwaves on the western side of the decaying central
plains low will coalesce with notable pressure falls over UT/NV on
Thursday. This help draw in an easterly surface wind component to
at least northeastern NM during the day before much more of the
state is overtaken Thursday night. This scenario would moisten up
the eastern half of NM (at least with regard to dewpoints and
surface humidity) while perturbed westerly flow aloft overrides
some of this moist easterly low level flow in the northern tier
of NM. This could reintroduce precipitation chances for northern
mountain and surrounding highland zones both Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1106 AM MDT Sat May 4 2024

Backdoor cold front continues to progress south and west late
this morning. Patchy low clouds with MVFR to IFR condtions will
continue through the afternoon before becoming more widespread
after sunset. Elsewhere this afternoon and evening, widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast over northern,
central, and eastern portions of the forecast area. A few storms
could produce large hail, and damaging winds over southeast areas
this afternoon through evening. Additionally, a few showers or
thunderstorms west of the central mountain chain could produce dry
microbursts with localized and erratic wind gusts up to 45 KT.
Gusty east canyon winds are forecast to strengthen again this
evening and continue through early morning Sunday. The east winds
will allow low clouds with MVFR and IFR conditions to become
widespread east of the central mountain chain this evening, where
showers and some thunderstorms may linger until sunrise. The low
clouds are forecast to push as far west as KSAF Sunday morning
with MVFR cigs possible.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 208 AM MDT Sat May 4 2024

...FIRE GROWING PATTERN SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Higher humidities over eastern areas will spread into central areas
as well this morning as a gusty backdoor front plunges into the
central valley with a strong gap wind. The increased moisture
will enable scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms to
develop across northern and eastern areas this afternoon and
evening. Some thunderstorms will produce dry microbursts with
erratic wind gusts up to 50 mph across the continental divide
region of northwest NM this afternoon, then into the Albuquerque
area during the early evening. A persistent fire growing pattern
will then develop Sunday through mid week as a broad longwave
trough sets up over the western US with multiple shortwave troughs
rotating through it. These will keep the flow aloft dry and
strong over NM with daily rounds of widespread critical fire
weather conditions. With this forecast package will keep the Red
Flag Warning and Fire Weather Watch going over central and western
areas for Sunday, and issue a Fire Weather Watch for the entire
fire weather forecast area on Monday. However, the winds look to
kick in significantly later over western areas than eastern areas,
so will stagger the start times.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  77  46  76  39 /  20  10   0   5
Dulce...........................  73  35  74  32 /  20  30   0  20
Cuba............................  69  40  74  36 /  20  20   0   5
Gallup..........................  75  38  74  32 /   5   0   0   0
El Morro........................  69  38  71  34 /  20   5   0   0
Grants..........................  73  36  76  37 /  20  10   0   0
Quemado.........................  73  39  72  36 /   5   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  74  45  76  44 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  71  42  71  39 /   5   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  77  37  76  36 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  81  50  81  45 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  67  35  67  27 /  40  30   5  20
Los Alamos......................  68  47  71  43 /  20  20   0   0
Pecos...........................  66  44  73  41 /  20  30  10   5
Cerro/Questa....................  65  43  67  40 /  30  20   0  10
Red River.......................  61  34  64  31 /  50  30   5  10
Angel Fire......................  60  31  66  34 /  40  20  10  10
Taos............................  70  36  73  40 /  20  20   0   5
Mora............................  63  38  71  40 /  20  30  20  10
Espanola........................  76  46  79  45 /  20  20   0   0
Santa Fe........................  70  46  75  44 /  10  30   5   5
Santa Fe Airport................  73  47  78  42 /  10  20   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  76  52  80  49 /  10  20   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  78  49  81  48 /   5  20   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  80  48  84  43 /   5  20   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  78  49  82  48 /   5  20   0   0
Belen...........................  81  44  84  47 /   5  10   0   0
Bernalillo......................  78  49  83  46 /  10  20   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  80  44  84  44 /  10  10   0   0
Corrales........................  79  49  84  47 /   5  20   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  80  45  84  45 /   5  10   0   0
Placitas........................  73  49  78  47 /  10  20   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  78  49  82  47 /   5  20   0   0
Socorro.........................  84  47  86  51 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  67  46  72  43 /  10  20   0   0
Tijeras.........................  71  45  76  45 /  10  20   0   0
Edgewood........................  71  44  77  44 /  10  20   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  71  42  78  43 /  10  20   0   0
Clines Corners..................  65  42  73  39 /  10  20   5   0
Mountainair.....................  71  41  75  45 /  10  10   0   5
Gran Quivira....................  71  41  76  47 /  10  10   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  79  48  79  53 /  10  10   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  69  44  73  47 /  20  20   0   5
Capulin.........................  61  40  69  43 /  10  20  10  10
Raton...........................  68  41  74  42 /  10  20  10  10
Springer........................  67  43  75  45 /  10  20  10  10
Las Vegas.......................  65  43  74  43 /  20  40  20  10
Clayton.........................  65  44  74  52 /   0  20  10  10
Roy.............................  66  46  73  49 /  10  40  20  10
Conchas.........................  72  51  80  55 /  10  50  20   5
Santa Rosa......................  69  49  77  50 /  20  50   5   5
Tucumcari.......................  71  50  79  56 /  10  50  20  10
Clovis..........................  73  52  79  55 /  40  40  10  10
Portales........................  73  52  79  55 /  30  50   5  10
Fort Sumner.....................  73  51  81  54 /  30  50   5   5
Roswell.........................  81  56  87  56 /  30  50   5   5
Picacho.........................  73  49  84  52 /  20  30   0   5
Elk.............................  75  45  82  51 /  20  20   0   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon to 10 PM MDT Sunday for NMZ101-105-
106-109-120>122-124.

Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
for NMZ101-105-109.

Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
for NMZ104-106-120>126.

Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
for NMZ123.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...33