-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
593
FXUS65 KABQ 182324 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
524 PM MDT Sat May 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 127 PM MDT Sat May 18 2024

Temperatures continue to warm up Sunday with areas along
the Rio Grande in Albuquerque approaching 90F while Roswell will
likely reach 100F. Dry, breezy to windy and warm conditions persist
through Monday with critical fire weather focused through western NM
and the Rio Grande Valley south of Santa Fe. Cooler temperatures
filter in Tuesday, but conditions remain dry and windy. The northern
mountains will be the exception Monday night where showers will
reach the higher terrain. Cooler air and higher moisture swings
through the eastern plains along the TX border Wednesday and
Thursday while central and western areas remain dry and windy as
temperatures warm back up. These dry and windy conditions look to
strengthen further again Friday to end next work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 127 PM MDT Sat May 18 2024

The warming trend continues today and will persist into Sunday
across eastern NM as an upper level ridge moves overhead and exits
to the east. Lingering moisture in the mid levels of the atmosphere
combined with daytime heating is leading to some shallow and high-
based buildups this afternoon, mostly notably across north central
NM where virga showers may produce strong/erratic wind gusts and
sprinkles through the evening hours. Moderate westerlies will
replace the exiting ridge on Sunday and when combined with daytime
heating will lead to deep layer mixing and breezy to locally windy
conditions by afternoon. Roswell is forecast to hit 102 for a high
Sunday, which will be the 2nd day in a row to hit at least 100
assuming Roswell gets there later this afternoon. Large diurnal
temperature ranges are forecast from Sunday into Sunday night as the
westerlies scour out what remains of our moisture and brings is a
very dry airmass.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 127 PM MDT Sat May 18 2024

Monday begins the long term period with an amplifying
troughing pattern over the western CONUS and strengthening southwest
winds over NM. Despite lowering pressure heights, warm air advection
and downsloping will keep forecast high temperatures fairly
consistent with Sunday`s forecast. Numerical model guidance
continues to show a modest slug of mid-level moisture moving over
western NM Monday afternoon. Virga showers and erratic gusty winds
will be possible from this over west-central NM. Otherwise,
prevailing wind speeds look to top out at 15 to 25 mph most areas,
with the strongest gust potential up to 50 mph focusing through west-
central NM including Gallup. A quick hitting vortmax being ingested
into the larger troughing pattern will eject quickly through NM
Monday night with an associated Pacific cold front turning winds
westerly by Tuesday morning. The main trough axis will pass north of
NM over CO bringing showers to the CO Rockies that will reach
southward into the northern mountains of NM Monday night and Tuesday
morning. Most of the forecast area will see cooler temperatures and
dry westerly winds Tuesday, missing out on precipitation chances.

Wednesday sees the upper level troughing pattern exit the region
with a cold front backing through eastern NM Wednesday morning.
Forecast high temperatures fall some through northeastern NM while
the northern and central NM sees rebounding temperatures. Another
troughing pattern moves into the northwestern CONUS with
strengthening southwest flow returning to NM. Dry, breezy and windy
conditions are favored across the forecast area Thursday.
Uncertainty remains regarding the amplitude of the upper level
troughing pattern. A more amplified solution would yield a strong
Pacific cold front swinging across the NM Friday bringing a sharper
cool down to end the work week. Unfortunately, dry conditions remain
favored in either scenario with the upper level trough staying too
far north to yield meaningful precipitation chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 517 PM MDT Sat May 18 2024

An upper level jet approaching from the west will interact with
sufficient mid level moisture to produce high-based showers over
northern and central NM thru sunset. Dry microburst wind gusts up
to 40 kt are possible in the vicinity of this activity. Confidence
is too low to place VCSH at any terminals but the area from near
KABQ to KSAF has the greatest chance to see sprinkles and very
gusty winds this evening. Otherwise, high level turbulence will
be the main impact overnight as the upper jet spreads over NM.
Southwest winds will strengthen after 11am Sunday with gusts of
20 to 30 kt common at many terminals.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 127 PM MDT Sat May 18 2024

A warming/drying trend continues today under the influence of an
upper level ridge. A fire growth pattern begins Sunday and will
continue through the work week as the westerlies trend up and a
couple of upper level troughs pass over the region. Winds and
humidity will reach critical threshold across eastern portions of
the area Sunday, but recent rain and greenup is significantly
lowering potential for large fire growth. Hot, dry and unstable
conditions will be the rule each day going forward, especially
across western NM. An approaching upper level trough will bring
stronger winds and a deepening lee side trough for Monday, when
humidity and winds will easily exceed critical threshold across a
large portion of the area. Western NM and the middle Rio Grande
Valley will be the area of concern given more receptive fuels and
recent lightning activity, so will go with a watch for Monday for
those areas. Winds and humidity will exceed critical threshold again
Tuesday as stronger westerly winds move over the area with a trough
moving east across CO and northern NM. Will get a break from the
wind on Wednesday, but speeds will trend back up Thu/Fri in response
to a trough moving from the Great Basin toward the central/southern
Rockies. Critical fire weather conditions are likely, at least over
portions of the area, both Thursday and Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  48  82  47  80 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  41  77  37  73 /  10   0   0   0
Cuba............................  46  76  43  74 /   5   0   0  10
Gallup..........................  40  79  38  74 /   0   0   0   5
El Morro........................  42  76  40  72 /   0   0   0  10
Grants..........................  41  80  39  76 /   0   0   0  10
Quemado.........................  44  79  40  77 /   0   0   0   5
Magdalena.......................  52  83  49  81 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  47  78  43  76 /   0   0   0   5
Reserve.........................  41  83  38  79 /   0   0   0   5
Glenwood........................  54  86  53  83 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  40  71  37  67 /  10   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  53  78  51  74 /  10   0   0   5
Pecos...........................  48  77  48  75 /  10   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  46  71  46  70 /  10   0   0   0
Red River.......................  39  65  39  66 /  10   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  36  68  35  69 /  10   0   0   0
Taos............................  42  77  39  75 /  10   0   0   0
Mora............................  44  75  43  75 /  10   0   0   0
Espanola........................  52  84  47  81 /  10   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  52  80  50  76 /  10   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  51  82  48  80 /  10   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  57  85  55  83 /  10   0   0   5
Albuquerque Heights.............  56  87  53  85 /  10   0   0   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  53  89  51  87 /   5   0   0   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  56  87  53  84 /  10   0   0   5
Belen...........................  53  91  49  88 /   5   0   0   5
Bernalillo......................  56  88  52  85 /  10   0   0   5
Bosque Farms....................  52  90  50  87 /   5   0   0   5
Corrales........................  55  88  53  86 /  10   0   0   5
Los Lunas.......................  53  90  51  87 /   5   0   0   5
Placitas........................  56  84  53  81 /  10   0   0   5
Rio Rancho......................  56  87  53  84 /  10   0   0   5
Socorro.........................  56  92  53  91 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  53  79  50  76 /  10   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  52  81  49  80 /  10   0   0   5
Edgewood........................  49  81  46  80 /   5   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  45  83  43  82 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  48  78  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  50  81  47  80 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  50  83  48  81 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  57  87  56  86 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  54  79  53  79 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  48  80  46  79 /  10   5   0   0
Raton...........................  47  82  43  83 /  10   0   0   0
Springer........................  48  84  43  83 /  10   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  48  79  45  78 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  53  88  54  88 /  10   5   0   0
Roy.............................  51  84  48  83 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  55  92  51  90 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  56  89  53  86 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  56  95  53  92 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  58  95  58  94 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  58  96  57  95 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  57  94  56  93 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  61 102  61 101 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  58  91  56  91 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  55  88  56  89 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
for NMZ101-105-106-109.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...42