Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --850 FXUS65 KABQ 040605 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1205 AM MDT Sat May 4 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 205 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024 Severe weather is possible this afternoon in far eastern New Mexico and again tomorrow afternoon and evening in the southeast. Dry, warm, and windy weather begins Sunday and persists through Wednesday, creating widespread critical to extreme fire weather conditions. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 205 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024 The 1pm SPC mesoanalysis across northeast NM shows an area of low level convergence with MLCAPE values near 1000 J/kg, effective bulk shear values close to 30 kt, lifted indices near -6C, and surface dewpoints in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Convective initiation along the I-25 corridor between Las Vegas and Raton will develop upstream into this airmass thru late afternoon where SPC still has a Marginal Risk for severe storms. `Severe Weather Outlook` timing shows the main threat window for damaging wind and large hail impacts between about 2pm and 8pm from Clayton to Clovis. These storms will move east/northeast into TX after sunset. Low level return flow then deepens westward across eastern NM thru midnight followed by a strong backdoor cold front overnight. Northerly wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph are expected thru sunrise across northeast and east-central NM. This boundary will allow a few more showers and perhaps a couple storms to develop overnight, along with widespread low stratus for eastern NM by sunrise. There is high likelihood the front will also push thru gaps in the central mt chain and allow for a period of perhaps moderate canyon winds in ABQ. Gusts up to 50 mph may occur immediately downwind of Tijeras Canyon. The focus then shifts to a potential second round of severe weather across southeast NM Saturday afternoon. Surface winds will veer out of the east then southeast thru the day across eastern NM with the deepest moisture and instability persists over Chaves, Roosevelt, and perhaps Curry counties. A 70-80kt upper level speed max will approach from the southwest and allow bulk shear values to increase over 45kt. The latest SPC outlook now has a Slight Risk for severe storms over parts of Roosevelt and Chaves counties. The main threat window will occur between 2pm and 8pm with large hail and damaging winds as the main threat again. There is however a small tornado probability in this area compared to today. The Marginal Risk area was also extended farther west where a few strong storms may occur around Santa Rosa to Tucumcari and Ft Sumner. Meanwhile, sufficient mid level moisture with low level southeasterly flow, orographics, and daytime heating across northern NM will allow for a few showers and storms to develop during the afternoon. This activity is more on the wet/dry side and will be capable of producing brief rain with strong gusty winds. Showers and storms may continue through late Saturday evening across eastern NM followed by more low stratus and perhaps some patchy fog. Moderate gap winds will return to the Rio Grande Valley as well with potential for gusts up to 50 mph again below Tijeras Canyon. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 205 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024 Dry southwest flow takes over Sunday out ahead of a trough, increasing wind speeds and dropping dewpoints. Despite winds trending down somewhat, patchy blowing dust is still likely across the lower elevations of western and central NM. On the other hand, winds have trended stronger during the Sunday night/early Monday time frame along a Pacific cold front that will sweep across the state from west to east. Moisture looks to be just deep enough for some showers across the northwest along the front, but precipitation amounts are expected to remain below 0.1". Monday will be both drier and cooler than Sunday in the wake of the front, with temps a few to as much as 10 degrees below seasonal averages. The strongest winds on Monday will focus along the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo mountains thanks to the development of a ~996 sfc low in the TX Panhandle. Troughing hangs around over the High Plains Monday through Wednesday, allowing zonal flow to persist across central and northern NM. 700 mb winds won`t be anomalously strong, but the combination of sunny skies and unidirectional westerly flow will efficiently mix stronger winds down to the surface during the afternoon hours. High temps each day will hover near seasonal averages. It looks like the critical fire weather pattern will finally break down late in the week as the High Plains trough moves eastward into the Great Lakes region. That being said, guidance is in disagreement on how quickly this transitions will occur. Storm chances will favor the northeast corner of the state late in the week and next weekend. && .AVIATION...-- Changed Discussion --(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1145 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024 A strong backdoor cold front will briefly produce wind gusts up to 40 KT as it dives southwestward through the eastern plains for the remainder of tonight, except near 45 KT across northeast areas. The front is forecast to push through gaps in the central mountain chain with a strong east canyon wind in the central valleys from Santa Fe southward. Gusts could reach up to 35 KT at KSAF, up to 45 KT at KABQ, and up to 35 KT in Carrizozo. An Airport Weather Warning will be issued for KABQ for wind gusts exceeding 35 KT from 12-18Z Saturday morning. Areas of low clouds are expected to produce MVFR and localized IFR conditions behind the front across the far northeast and east central plains, and more of the southeast plains, late tonight through much of Saturday morning. Saturday afternoon and evening, scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms are forecast over northern and eastern areas. Some storms are likely to produce large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps an isolated tornado over southeast areas. Meanwhile, some cells over the continental divide region Saturday afternoon will be capable of producing dry microbursts with localized and erratic wind gusts up to 45 kt. Saturday night, low clouds with MVFR and IFR conditions look to become widespread east of the central mountain chain, where thunderstorms will probably also linger.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 205 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024 ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PATTERN FOR POTENTIAL LARGE FIRE GROWTH SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK... Marginal critical fire weather conditions will continue over western NM thru Saturday while eastern NM sees greater chances for showers and storms with wetting rainfall. A mixture of wet/dry showers and storms is possible for the northern mts Saturday. Slightly better moisture trending into this area may allow for some small wetting footprints rather than the dry storms previously expected. However, activity along the western periphery within the Jemez and San Juan/ Tusas range may be drier. An extended period of critical to locally extreme fire weather is expected to begin Sunday as an upper level trough progresses slowly east across the southern Rockies. The strongest winds are focused on Sunday with gusts of 45 to 55 mph with single digit humidity and high Haines. A cold front moving thru Sunday night and Monday may bring some brief relief to far northwest NM however the rest of the area will stay windy with single digit humidity. More critical fire weather is likely Tuesday and Wednesday before a potential pattern change toward lighter winds and higher humidity arrives for parts of the area Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...-- Changed Discussion --Farmington...................... 77 37 78 42 / 0 0 5 0 Dulce........................... 70 31 74 34 / 0 0 30 5 Cuba............................ 72 36 71 38 / 0 0 20 5 Gallup.......................... 73 34 75 36 / 0 0 5 0 El Morro........................ 67 38 71 39 / 0 0 10 0 Grants.......................... 72 31 74 34 / 0 0 10 0 Quemado......................... 72 39 74 40 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 76 46 74 47 / 0 0 5 0 Datil........................... 72 41 71 42 / 0 0 5 0 Reserve......................... 76 32 77 35 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 80 47 81 48 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 66 30 67 33 / 0 0 40 20 Los Alamos...................... 71 45 67 46 / 0 0 30 10 Pecos........................... 75 40 66 41 / 10 0 30 30 Cerro/Questa.................... 69 36 64 39 / 5 0 40 20 Red River....................... 64 29 60 32 / 10 0 50 30 Angel Fire...................... 65 24 60 28 / 10 0 40 30 Taos............................ 73 31 71 35 / 5 0 30 20 Mora............................ 69 34 63 36 / 10 0 30 30 Espanola........................ 78 43 77 45 / 0 0 30 10 Santa Fe........................ 71 45 70 46 / 5 0 30 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 78 42 73 44 / 0 0 20 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 78 48 75 50 / 0 0 10 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 79 49 77 52 / 0 0 10 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 81 49 79 49 / 0 0 10 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 82 47 78 48 / 0 0 10 5 Belen........................... 83 46 81 46 / 0 0 5 0 Bernalillo...................... 79 46 79 48 / 0 0 10 5 Bosque Farms.................... 81 44 80 45 / 0 0 10 5 Corrales........................ 80 45 79 47 / 0 0 10 5 Los Lunas....................... 81 43 80 44 / 0 0 10 5 Placitas........................ 77 48 73 48 / 0 0 10 10 Rio Rancho...................... 79 48 78 49 / 0 0 10 5 Socorro......................... 86 51 85 51 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 72 46 67 46 / 0 0 20 10 Tijeras......................... 75 43 70 44 / 0 0 20 10 Edgewood........................ 73 43 70 44 / 0 0 10 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 76 36 71 39 / 5 0 10 10 Clines Corners.................. 73 39 64 40 / 10 0 10 20 Mountainair..................... 75 43 70 44 / 0 0 10 10 Gran Quivira.................... 75 41 72 42 / 0 0 5 10 Carrizozo....................... 79 49 79 49 / 0 0 5 10 Ruidoso......................... 75 46 71 46 / 0 0 10 20 Capulin......................... 71 38 60 40 / 30 10 10 20 Raton........................... 77 37 67 39 / 20 5 20 20 Springer........................ 79 39 67 41 / 20 0 20 20 Las Vegas....................... 75 38 64 40 / 10 0 20 30 Clayton......................... 73 41 63 44 / 30 30 5 30 Roy............................. 78 44 65 45 / 20 10 10 40 Conchas......................... 86 51 71 51 / 20 10 10 60 Santa Rosa...................... 84 49 68 49 / 20 5 10 40 Tucumcari....................... 85 49 68 49 / 20 20 20 60 Clovis.......................... 89 51 70 51 / 20 10 30 60 Portales........................ 89 52 72 52 / 20 5 40 60 Fort Sumner..................... 86 49 73 50 / 20 10 20 50 Roswell......................... 94 55 80 55 / 5 0 20 40 Picacho......................... 84 48 75 49 / 5 0 10 20 Elk............................. 80 46 79 47 / 0 0 10 20-- End Changed Discussion --&& .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from noon to 10 PM MDT Sunday for NMZ101-105- 106-109-120>122-124. Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for NMZ123. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...44