Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FGUS75 KABQ 272023

Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
223 PM MDT Thu Sep 27 2018


Moisture associated with the remnants of Hurricane Rosa is
expected to impact portions of New Mexico as early as Monday as
the storm makes landfall along the Baja Peninsula early Tuesday
morning. Afterwards, computer models are in general agreement that
the remnants of Rosa will move northeasterly into the
Southwestern US and will be pushed eastward as a Pacific storm
system moves through California. The combination of the tropical
moisture and the two storm systems has the potential to produce
widespread rainfall over the Southwest including New Mexico from
the Continental Divide westward.

While there is broad agreement among the models in the general
movement of the remains of Rosa, there is still considerable
differences in the location, timing, and potential rainfall
amounts early next week. Models have been consistent in placing
precipitation over portions of western New Mexico from the Gila
Mountains northward into the Four Corners region with three day
rainfall totals from 0.5" to 2", with the highest rainfall totals
focused along the high terrain of northwest New Mexico.

At this time, the exact impacts of any rainfall from the remnants
of Rosa are unknown due to the uncertainty in the track forecast
after landfall. Hydrologic conditions across the region are poor
due to the extended drought, but extended rainfall periods or
localized high rainfall rates have the potential to produce
flooding in areas prone to flash flooding such as arroyos.
Widespread river flooding is not expected, but rapid rises may be
possible in areas that receive high rainfall totals or rainfall

Interests throughout western New Mexico should monitor forecasts
over the next few days as this weather event begins to develop.

For the official forecast track for Hurricane Rosa, please visit
the NWS/National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov


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