


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
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-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --116 FXUS63 KABR 130153 AAB AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 853 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Wildfire smoke will keep visibilities down to 2-5 miles over northeastern SD and west central MN, before improving west to east overnight. - There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) of severe weather late Monday afternoon and evening, with a 50% chance of precipitation. - There will be a noticeable cool-down on Wednesday and Thursday, with highs potentially 10 to 15 degrees below normal. && .UPDATE...-- Changed Discussion --Issued at 842 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Smoke continues to reduce visibility to between 3-6 miles across the eastern CWA, mainly east of the James River. Made some minor adjustments to the smoke departure timing tonight based on the latest HRRR run, which has handled things well with this latest round of smoke. All signs continue to point to the smoke eventually pushing eastward and out of the CWA tonight. As for the rest of the forecast tonight, winds will gradually switch to the south-southwest (already beginning to see this) as temps drop into the upper 50s and low 60s by sunrise Sunday. Other than keeping up with areal coverage/placement of smoke mention, very little in the way of changes to the forecast for the overnight.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .DISCUSSION... Issued at 249 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 At 19Z, the latest Goecolor satellite imagery showed a thick ribbon on smoke stretching across the eastern Dakotas. Visibilities east of this ribbon have been between 2 and 6SM. On either side of the thicker smoke, fair weather cumulus clouds have developed. Despite the smoke, temperatures have been able to rise into the 70s to near 80 degrees early this afternoon. Taking a look at he solar radiation sensors from the SDState Mesonet platforms, there has been about a 10% reduction in solar radiation due to the smoke over the James River Valley. Taking a look at the afternoon weather map, we have surface high over KS and southern NE extending a ridge up through eastern SD and western MN. The main 500mb trough that was overhead this morning has shifted into MN, with northwesterly flow lingering over the Dakotas. Ridging aloft will be the theme for the next few days, along with increasing temperature. A weak/dry cold front will cross the area during the day Sunday. Temperatures will rise into the mid 80s to low 90s Sunday afternoon, highest west of the James River. Highs Monday will be mainly in the 90s, with a few locations flirting with 100 degrees near and west of the MO River. Look for increasing dewpoints, into the upper 50s and mid 60s, Monday as winds shift out of the south. CAPE values will near 1k J/kg Monday afternoon into the early evening hours, closer to the surface trough set up over western SD. The surface low looks to push across central SD by around daybreak Tuesday and be to our southeast by mid afternoon Tuesday. Thunderstorm chances look to return Monday and Tuesday. The SPC day 3 outlook highlight our 5 northwestern most counties in the marginal risk area (level 1 out of 5) for Monday afternoon and evening. We could see more Canadian wildfire smoke returning Tuesday, but it`s not a guarantee. The specific wind direction will make a big difference, on if the winds are more out of the west or northwest aloft. We will not be putting any mention of smoke in the forecast that far out. Check out the latest on the smoke near the surface and potential impacts from the EPA at airnow.gov Highs Wednesday and Thursday will be mainly in the 70s, with only a slow return to the upper 70s and to mid 80s by next Saturday. The chance of precipitation beyond Wednesday diminish to less than climatology, generally at or below 25% for any 12-hour period. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 641 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG MVFR/IFR VSBY in smoke (FU) will continue to affect KATY into the evening hours, but forecast to improve to VFR VSBY later tonight. Otherwise, VFR conditions can be expected across the rest of the area through the TAF period. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...TMT DISCUSSION...06 AVIATION...TMT