Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000 FXUS63 KABR 021705 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1105 AM CST Tue Mar 2 2021 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 1105 AM CST Tue Mar 2 2021 Temperatures warming up quickly this morning across the region even over the snow covered areas. With the current trend in rising temperatures along with sunshine and good mixing into the afternoon, have increased highs a few degrees mainly over the bare ground areas across the north. Could see a few record highs tied or broken today at Aberdeen and Sisseton with highs getting to around 60 degrees.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Afternoon) Issued at 415 AM CST Tue Mar 2 2021 Temperatures are the main challenge in the short term. This morning, downslope winds continue along the Prairie Coteau. Gusts up to 60 mph have been observed at times. Expect winds to slowly diminish by early afternoon as winds shift behind a dry fropa. The snow pack is still in place along and south of Hwy 212. Until winds shift to the northwest behind the front, the same issue of sfc colder air advecting off the snow will remain even for areas that are snow-free. As the wind direction changes, however, there will be good mixing but some mild caa from the northwest at H85. That said, continued to go on the warmer side of guidance this afternoon with highs across the north. Dropped highs in areas with snow cover about 5 degrees. Even if they do not reach full potential, temperatures should be well into melting territory in the 40s. Therefore, expect temps to rebound on Wednesday across central SD as upper ridging builds further into the northern Plains. May be a little too optimistic on highs across Deuel and Hamlin counties, though. The warmer temperatures and breezy northwest winds this afternoon will result in high to very high fire danger across north central SD. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Monday) Issued at 415 AM CST Tue Mar 2 2021 The main focus in the extended period is temperatures, with highs around 15 degrees above average. An upper-level ridge will already be well-established by Thursday, and it only intensifies into Friday. NAEFS and ECMWF ensemble means of geopotential height climb to the 97.5th plus percentile from Thursday evening through Saturday morning, particularly at 700mb, relative to this time of year. Sfc high pressure will continue to allow for plentiful sunshine as well, further accelerating the melting of whatever snow pack remains (thus having little to no dampening impact on temperatures). Given all this, have nudged up inherited high temps for Thu, Fri and Sat. Easterly breezes Thursday may keep conditions a little bit cooler across the eastern CWA than they would have otherwise been, given the deeper snow pack that currently exists across much of Minnesota. A shortwave trough may infringe upon the Northern Plains for the weekend, nonetheless, temperatures are to remain much above normal. Up until this point in the extended period, fire weather concerns have been somewhat limited given the relatively light sfc winds (despite 30s or lower percent RH especially across central SD). However, this shortwave and associated sfc low would lead to increased southerly winds, and thus increased fire concerns. Fuels will remain dry as Moderate to Severe Drought will have had no opportunity to improve by this time. In fact, very little to no precipitation is forecast through this period (somewhat of a cut-off low looks to stay south of the CWA Thursday evening, leading to perhaps just some low cloud cover across our area). && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning) Issued at 525 AM CST Tue Mar 2 2021 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions are expected through the day. Breezy south to southwest winds this morning will shift to the northwest through the day behind a front. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Mohr SHORT TERM...Wise LONG TERM...Lueck AVIATION...Wise

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