Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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000 FXAK69 PAFG 182138 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 138 PM AKDT Sun Apr 18 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A strong ridge of high pressure aloft dominates the state as warm anomalies reach their max today. Another warm day is in store tomorrow then a shortwave trough will move from the Arctic Coast to the Eastern Interior, sending a strong cold front south with it. This will bring snow and blowing snow to the eastern half of the Northern Slope and Brooks Range as winds push into the 30-40 mph range. && .DISCUSSION... Upper Levels and Analysis... An impressive 570+ dam upper level high is dominating the state. This is very anomalous and is resulting in temps skyrocketing through the 50s across parts of the Interior. Beyond this feature, the gradient is mostly weak with the exception along the far northwest Arctic where the remnants of a stalled front remain. Southeast flow is bringing in some mid and higher clouds, especially out west where it is quite a bit cloudier. Central and Eastern Interior... Today will be the warmest day as temps skyrocket into the 50s and low 60s across parts of the Interior this afternoon, followed by another warm day tomorrow but slightly cooler. The big change comes on Monday night and Tuesday as a strong cold front sweeps down from the Brooks Range, bringing snow chances from the Upper Tanana Valley to the AK Range and across the Fortymile Uplands. This is a strong front and temps will drop quickly, but the best snowfall will be over the Uplands and AK Range which will also impact travel. North winds will increase out of the AK Range and Brooks Range, too, Tue evening as the front moves through, so there will likely be some blowing snow, as well. Tuesday night will be cold with temps dropping into the teens again with nice weather back on track for Wednesday as high pressure settles in. West Coast and Western Interior... A few rain/snow showers may clip the Lower Yukon and Yukon Delta this evening, otherwise the warm high pressure will continue to dominate the remainder of the region. A strong shortwave trough will clip the northwest coast Monday, increasing the north gradient as winds ramp up dramatically over the coastal areas and across Saint Lawrence Island. North winds will reach high end gale force with gusts possibly into the 55 mph range or so across the Yukon Delta and Saint Lawrence. Some blowing and drifting snow is possible as well, although most locations have probably crusted over the top of the snow layer. Winds diminish Tuesday leaving high pressure in its wake. North Slope and Brooks Range... Quiet weather until a strong arctic front crosses the Arctic Coast on Monday, bringing increasing west winds and much cooler air along with snow and blowing snow. The worst snow and blowing snow conditions will be over the eastern Arctic where a winter storm watch remains for potential blizzard conditions, with a winter weather advisory for the Dalton Highway heading into the Brooks Range. Strong winds persist through Tuesday before diminishing Wednesday. Extended Period Forecast Days 4-7... Beginning Wednesday evening, ridging aloft will begin to rebuild, bringing another bout of warming temps and dry weather as high pressure dominates and spring moves forward. This dry and quiet weather looks to dominate through the weekend. Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && .FIRE WEATHER... None. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Watch for AKZ204. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ206. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ230- PKZ235. && $$ AHSENMACHER APR 21

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