National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXAK69 PAFG 041229
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
329 AM AKST Thu Mar 4 2021

SYNOPSIS...Very active on the West Coast as a strong front is
moving into the area this morning with a mix of Warnings and
Advisories in effect from Wainwright south to the Lower Yukon
Delta. The front will weaken as it moves inland but will still
spread some light snow to areas west of Manley Hot Springs. Winds
increasing near the passes in the Alaska and Brooks Range today as
leeside troughing develops. Gusty winds in those area, and on
summits in the White and Ray Mountains, will produce blowing and
drifting snow that may impact travel. Temperatures across the area
will be warming today and Friday, then cooling this weekend.

.DISCUSSION...

Models...The 04/00Z solutions are in pretty good agreement
through the short term. Biggest differences in solutions seem to
be wind speeds which will impact some of the coastal locations.
Will be leaning toward the higher wind speeds along the coast
north to Wainwright. Solutions initialized well against the 04/06Z
surface analysis. Precipitation solutions are very similar in the
short term as far as timing with the ECMWF and Hi Res solutions
bringing in a lot more QPF than the GFS and NAM. Will lean toward
a blend to get to middle ground.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Troughing over the eastern half of the state
extends south to a 511 dam low over the southern Gulf of Alaska
and will slide over the AlCan Border this evening, and the Yukon
Territory by Friday morning. High amplitude ridging over the West
Coast extends from the North Pacific to the Southwest Arctic and
will slide east as it weakens and will lie from the Gulf of Alaska
over the Eastern Interior and Eastern Arctic Coast by Friday
morning. A 475 dam low just north of the Kamchatka Peninsula is
sending a strong trough across the Bering Sea. The trough is near
the Dateline this morning and will move over the Eastern Bering
Sea by this evening. By Friday morning the low will be north of
the Gulf of Anadyr at 470 dam with the trough extending southeast
over St Lawrence Island, the southwest coast, and Bristol Bay. The
trough will weaken and stretch out as it slowly moves inland
while the low moves west, and a 520 dam high develops over the
Northern Yukon Territory. At 850 hpa...The -20C isotherm has
started morning north as the system to the west approaches moves
to the Eastern Bering Sea today and will be north of the Arctic
Coast this evening. The -10C isotherm will be pushed north of St
Lawrence Island today as the front moves through, and a dome of
-10C will be pushed over the Central Interior most of Friday
before it moderates as colder air wraps around the low.

Surface...A 980 mb low is just south of the Gulf of Alaska with
low pressure extending north to the Eastern Arctic Coast. Weak
high pressure has moved over the West Coast extending from the
North Pacific over Nikolski to the Bering Strait and Western
Arctic, with a 1028 mb high 300 nm north of Utqiagvik. A 964 mb
low is just north of the Kamchatka Peninsula this morning with a
front moving into the Eastern Bering Sea. The high pressure will
move into the Interior this morning as the front to the west moves
to the coast south of the Bering Strait as the low moves to the
Western Gulf of Anadyr at 962 mb. By this evening the high
pressure will be hanging on over the Central and Eastern Interior
while the front to the west will lie from the Bering Strait to
Anvik to a 994 mb low near the southern tip of Kodiak Island.
Leeside troughing will develop north of the Ranges today with some
gust south winds developing. A 1018 mb high developing over the
Upper Porcupine River Basin will tighten the pressure gradient
across the White Mountains, near Finger Mountain, and on summits
south of the Koyukuk River with gusty winds to 25 mph developing
this evening and diminishing early Friday.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...High pressure over the Arctic
will slide east with troughing developing over the plains today
and sliding north over the coast this evening. Northeast to east
winds 10 to 20 mph will persist over the coast east of Wainwright
with variable winds to 10 mph inland. As the front moving to the
West Coast moves to the Northwest Arctic Coast southeast winds
will increase in advance of it today with ground Blizzard
conditions developing this afternoon and evening. Conditions
improving as winds diminish late tonight. The front will bring a
little snow, less than an inch, to the northwest Friday morning.

West Coast and Western Interior...Strong front moving to the
coast this morning and Warnings and Advisories remain in effect
for the coastal areas. Blizzard conditions on St Lawrence Island
will improve late this evening, while conditions in the Lower
Yukon Delta, Norton Sound Region, and the Chukchi Sea Coast will
deteriorate late this afternoon and evening as the winds pick up
in advance of the front. As the front moves inland and weakens
winds will not be as strong, but snowfall amounts will be highest
in the southeast Nulato Hills, and the Lower Yukon Delta with 3 to
5 inches. The remainder of the area will see 1 to 3 inches of
snow by Friday morning. Temperatures will warm into the single
digits below to teens above today as strong south flow associated
with the front pulls warmer air into the area. Temperatures will
be in the teens above for most area Friday, then cool Friday night
as cold air is pulled around the low into the area.

Central and Eastern Interior...Clearing skies today with slightly
warmer temperatures this afternoon. Temperatures will fall
sharply tonight under the partly cloudy skies with lows from 5 to
30 below. High pressure over the northern Interior and Copper
River Basin will strengthen, but leeside troughing will dig in
north of the Alaska range with a strong pressure gradient
developing later this morning. Winds will increase to 25 gusting
to 40 mph with blowing and drifting snow developing. Travel on the
Richardson and Parks Highways may be impacted. Expect some
blowing and drifting snow in the White and Ray mountains north of
Fairbanks. Temperatures warming back up this weekend with chances
of snow Saturday and Sunday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...Another strong front will
move to the West Coast Sunday and Monday, then slowly move inland
and across the Interior through mid week spreading light snow to
most areas. High pressure will persist over the Arctic with
troughing developing over the Arctic plain and coast. High
pressure will hang on over the Eastern Interior, Upper Tanana
Valley, and Upper Yukon Flats through Tuesday, then slide east as
the front moves into the area.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

inter Storm Warning for AKZ214.

Blizzard Warning for AKZ201-AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ213.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ206-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ215-
AKZ225-AKZ226.

Gale Warning for PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

Storm Warning for PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ235-PKZ245.

&&

$$

SDB MAR 21