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060
FXAK69 PAFG 132351
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
351 PM AKDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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Even though ridging is the most prevalent feature over the next
week, several disturbances keep features transient and progressive.
The first disturbance is a trough that approaches the West Coast
Sunday night and exits into Canada by Tuesday night. This brings
beneficial wetting rains to the West Coast and Western Interior with
lighter and more spotty shower/thunderstorm chances farther east.
Ridging builds across the northwest interior Wednesday through
Friday when the next series of disturbances track north along the
West Coast next weekend. The AK Range scours out the additional
moisture and keeps much of the interior drier from Tuesday night
onward with temperatures warming back above normal.
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&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
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Central and Eastern Interior...

- Winds shift from west to southwest tonight with areas of smoke and
haze becoming focused across the northern interior by Monday morning.

- Interior high temps cool from around 80F Sunday evening to near or
below 70F on Tuesday then warming back to near 80F by Friday.

- Light west-southwest winds on Sunday increase Monday and Tuesday,
especially across the Yukon Flats where gusts to 25 mph are possible
Monday afternoon and 30 mph on Tuesday. Gap winds increase to around
25 mph on Monday too.

- Slight chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms mainly across
the higher elevations on Sunday with better chances Monday, except
for perhaps the Yukon Flats.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- High temperatures for most interior locations cool from the 60s
and 70s Sunday afternoon into the 50s by Tuesday.

- Increasing south winds across St. Lawrence Island and the West
Coast through Tuesday night before subsiding on Wednesday. Gusts up
to 40 mph are possible through the Bering Strait tonight and across
the Norton Sound on Tuesday.

- Rain chances increase across the southern interior Sunday
afternoon then spread along the west coast on Monday through Tuesday
night. Between 1/3 and 2/3 inches of rain is most likely with local
amounts greater than 1 inch mainly along the southern Seward Pen.

North Slope and Brooks Range..

- South-southwesterly offshore winds and above normal temperatures
in the 60s or even low 70s continue through midweek.

- Showers and thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon and
evening from Anaktuvuk Pass eastward across the North Slope.

- Southwest gusts of 30-40 mph Sunday night through Monday night
along the Northwest Arctic Coast between Point Hope and Wainwright.

- A few chances for light rain Monday night through Thursday before
onshore flow and low stratus/fog return late this week.
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&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
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Southwest flow between a 535dm low near Wrangel Island and a 575dm
ridge near Yakutat results in an influx of Bering Sea moisture.
Satellite and radar imagery indicates showers and thunderstorms
building across southern portions of the west-central interior
Sunday afternoon. This activity diminishes overnight before flaring
up farther northeast Monday afternoon, including north of the Brooks
Range east of Anaktuvuk Pass. An area of more steady rainfall moves
onto the West Coast during the day on Monday through Tuesday before
lifting north along the West Coast Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Moderate rainfall amounts mainly around 0.5" are forecast for areas
between the YK Delta and the western Brooks Range with higher
amounts >1" possible along south-facing slopes of the Seward Pen.
Ridging shifts from southeast to northwest for the middle of the
week and should build to around 574 dm over the western Brooks Range
by Thursday evening before lifting north across the Arctic Ocean.
One last fly in the ointment is gap winds through the AK Range with
latest model guidance indicating gusts up to around 30 mph,
primarily contained within the gaps due to a westerly component to
winds.
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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
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Over the next 24 hours a ridge expands its footprint across
eastern Alaska and into Canada, with moist southwest flow
becoming more pronounced along the western coast later tonight.
While we are seeing active fire behavior driven by warm and dry
weather for most of the area, expecting the western zones to begin
moderating as widespread wetting rains becoming more prevalent
Monday into Tuesday. Peaking into the central and eastern
interior, wet thunderstorms and showers are anticipated which will
also help moderate fire activity, more so Monday. Expecting
cooler temps, higher minimum RH, and better RH recoveries into
Wednesday before weak ridging returns across the state. Despite
improving RH, southwest winds increase Monday night and Tuesday
for valley locations across the western and northern interior. By
Wednesday and Thursday we should see seasonable temperatures and
drying from south to north that continues through the end of the
workweek. Light east- northeast winds may overspread the northern
interior Friday and Saturday as ridging builds across the Beaufort
Sea.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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No concerns at this time.
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&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
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Agreement amongst extended range model guidance has improved over
the past day with ridging looking to prevail across much of Alaska.
Even though that`s the case, ridging magnitude isn`t particularly
noteworthy and is similar to ridging that traverse the state over
the weekend. Therefore above normal temperatures are expected, but
with sufficient cooling overnight to make smoke and air quality the
primary concerns, but winds are light and several of the larger
fires should be doused with rain over the coming days. The next
forecast challenge is ridge breakdown and even though details are
murky, there seems to be a good signal for a trough pivoting around
the Bering Sea low Friday night or Saturday. Ensembles show a low to
medium chance for sufficient moisture/convergence for thunderstorms
across the interior on Saturday. However, there`s a better ensemble
signal for the Bering Sea low to lift north allowing for more zonal
flow north of ridging across the Gulf of Alaska. If it materializes
then westerly flow would bring potential for a more prolonged period
of lighter rainfall by the end of the extended period.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None
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&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PCs. Small Craft Advisory for
PKZ807-810. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811-856>858. Small Craft
Advisory for PKZ812. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-817-854.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850-853. Small Craft Advisory for
PKZ851. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859.
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$$
KUTTA/PARK