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000
FXAK69 PAFG 182138
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
138 PM AKDT Sun Apr 18 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong ridge of high pressure aloft dominates the state as warm
anomalies reach their max today. Another warm day is in store
tomorrow then a shortwave trough will move from the Arctic Coast
to the Eastern Interior, sending a strong cold front south with
it. This will bring snow and blowing snow to the eastern half of
the Northern Slope and Brooks Range as winds push into the 30-40
mph range.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
An impressive 570+ dam upper level high is dominating the state.
This is very anomalous and is resulting in temps skyrocketing
through the 50s across parts of the Interior. Beyond this feature,
the gradient is mostly weak with the exception along the far
northwest Arctic where the remnants of a stalled front remain.
Southeast flow is bringing in some mid and higher clouds,
especially out west where it is quite a bit cloudier.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Today will be the warmest day as temps skyrocket into the 50s and
low 60s across parts of the Interior this afternoon, followed by
another warm day tomorrow but slightly cooler. The big change
comes on Monday night and Tuesday as a strong cold front sweeps
down from the Brooks Range, bringing snow chances from the Upper
Tanana Valley to the AK Range and across the Fortymile Uplands.
This is a strong front and temps will drop quickly, but the best
snowfall will be over the Uplands and AK Range which will also
impact travel. North winds will increase out of the AK Range and
Brooks Range, too, Tue evening as the front moves through, so
there will likely be some blowing snow, as well. Tuesday night
will be cold with temps dropping into the teens again with nice
weather back on track for Wednesday as high pressure settles in.

West Coast and Western Interior...
A few rain/snow showers may clip the Lower Yukon and Yukon Delta
this evening, otherwise the warm high pressure will continue to
dominate the remainder of the region. A strong shortwave trough
will clip the northwest coast Monday, increasing the north
gradient as winds ramp up dramatically over the coastal areas and
across Saint Lawrence Island. North winds will reach high end gale
force with gusts possibly into the 55 mph range or so across the
Yukon Delta and Saint Lawrence. Some blowing and drifting snow is
possible as well, although most locations have probably crusted
over the top of the snow layer. Winds diminish Tuesday leaving
high pressure in its wake.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Quiet weather until a strong arctic front crosses the Arctic Coast
on Monday, bringing increasing west winds and much cooler air
along with snow and blowing snow. The worst snow and blowing snow
conditions will be over the eastern Arctic where a winter storm
watch remains for potential blizzard conditions, with a winter
weather advisory for the Dalton Highway heading into the Brooks
Range. Strong winds persist through Tuesday before diminishing
Wednesday.

Extended Period Forecast Days 4-7...
Beginning Wednesday evening, ridging aloft will begin to rebuild,
bringing another bout of warming temps and dry weather as high
pressure dominates and spring moves forward. This dry and quiet
weather looks to dominate through the weekend.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Winter Storm Watch for AKZ204.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ206.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ230-
PKZ235.

&&

$$

AHSENMACHER APR 21