Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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000 FXAK69 PAFG 041229 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 329 AM AKST Thu Mar 4 2021 SYNOPSIS...Very active on the West Coast as a strong front is moving into the area this morning with a mix of Warnings and Advisories in effect from Wainwright south to the Lower Yukon Delta. The front will weaken as it moves inland but will still spread some light snow to areas west of Manley Hot Springs. Winds increasing near the passes in the Alaska and Brooks Range today as leeside troughing develops. Gusty winds in those area, and on summits in the White and Ray Mountains, will produce blowing and drifting snow that may impact travel. Temperatures across the area will be warming today and Friday, then cooling this weekend. .DISCUSSION... Models...The 04/00Z solutions are in pretty good agreement through the short term. Biggest differences in solutions seem to be wind speeds which will impact some of the coastal locations. Will be leaning toward the higher wind speeds along the coast north to Wainwright. Solutions initialized well against the 04/06Z surface analysis. Precipitation solutions are very similar in the short term as far as timing with the ECMWF and Hi Res solutions bringing in a lot more QPF than the GFS and NAM. Will lean toward a blend to get to middle ground. Aloft...At 500 hpa...Troughing over the eastern half of the state extends south to a 511 dam low over the southern Gulf of Alaska and will slide over the AlCan Border this evening, and the Yukon Territory by Friday morning. High amplitude ridging over the West Coast extends from the North Pacific to the Southwest Arctic and will slide east as it weakens and will lie from the Gulf of Alaska over the Eastern Interior and Eastern Arctic Coast by Friday morning. A 475 dam low just north of the Kamchatka Peninsula is sending a strong trough across the Bering Sea. The trough is near the Dateline this morning and will move over the Eastern Bering Sea by this evening. By Friday morning the low will be north of the Gulf of Anadyr at 470 dam with the trough extending southeast over St Lawrence Island, the southwest coast, and Bristol Bay. The trough will weaken and stretch out as it slowly moves inland while the low moves west, and a 520 dam high develops over the Northern Yukon Territory. At 850 hpa...The -20C isotherm has started morning north as the system to the west approaches moves to the Eastern Bering Sea today and will be north of the Arctic Coast this evening. The -10C isotherm will be pushed north of St Lawrence Island today as the front moves through, and a dome of -10C will be pushed over the Central Interior most of Friday before it moderates as colder air wraps around the low. Surface...A 980 mb low is just south of the Gulf of Alaska with low pressure extending north to the Eastern Arctic Coast. Weak high pressure has moved over the West Coast extending from the North Pacific over Nikolski to the Bering Strait and Western Arctic, with a 1028 mb high 300 nm north of Utqiagvik. A 964 mb low is just north of the Kamchatka Peninsula this morning with a front moving into the Eastern Bering Sea. The high pressure will move into the Interior this morning as the front to the west moves to the coast south of the Bering Strait as the low moves to the Western Gulf of Anadyr at 962 mb. By this evening the high pressure will be hanging on over the Central and Eastern Interior while the front to the west will lie from the Bering Strait to Anvik to a 994 mb low near the southern tip of Kodiak Island. Leeside troughing will develop north of the Ranges today with some gust south winds developing. A 1018 mb high developing over the Upper Porcupine River Basin will tighten the pressure gradient across the White Mountains, near Finger Mountain, and on summits south of the Koyukuk River with gusty winds to 25 mph developing this evening and diminishing early Friday. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...High pressure over the Arctic will slide east with troughing developing over the plains today and sliding north over the coast this evening. Northeast to east winds 10 to 20 mph will persist over the coast east of Wainwright with variable winds to 10 mph inland. As the front moving to the West Coast moves to the Northwest Arctic Coast southeast winds will increase in advance of it today with ground Blizzard conditions developing this afternoon and evening. Conditions improving as winds diminish late tonight. The front will bring a little snow, less than an inch, to the northwest Friday morning. West Coast and Western Interior...Strong front moving to the coast this morning and Warnings and Advisories remain in effect for the coastal areas. Blizzard conditions on St Lawrence Island will improve late this evening, while conditions in the Lower Yukon Delta, Norton Sound Region, and the Chukchi Sea Coast will deteriorate late this afternoon and evening as the winds pick up in advance of the front. As the front moves inland and weakens winds will not be as strong, but snowfall amounts will be highest in the southeast Nulato Hills, and the Lower Yukon Delta with 3 to 5 inches. The remainder of the area will see 1 to 3 inches of snow by Friday morning. Temperatures will warm into the single digits below to teens above today as strong south flow associated with the front pulls warmer air into the area. Temperatures will be in the teens above for most area Friday, then cool Friday night as cold air is pulled around the low into the area. Central and Eastern Interior...Clearing skies today with slightly warmer temperatures this afternoon. Temperatures will fall sharply tonight under the partly cloudy skies with lows from 5 to 30 below. High pressure over the northern Interior and Copper River Basin will strengthen, but leeside troughing will dig in north of the Alaska range with a strong pressure gradient developing later this morning. Winds will increase to 25 gusting to 40 mph with blowing and drifting snow developing. Travel on the Richardson and Parks Highways may be impacted. Expect some blowing and drifting snow in the White and Ray mountains north of Fairbanks. Temperatures warming back up this weekend with chances of snow Saturday and Sunday. Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...Another strong front will move to the West Coast Sunday and Monday, then slowly move inland and across the Interior through mid week spreading light snow to most areas. High pressure will persist over the Arctic with troughing developing over the Arctic plain and coast. High pressure will hang on over the Eastern Interior, Upper Tanana Valley, and Upper Yukon Flats through Tuesday, then slide east as the front moves into the area. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... inter Storm Warning for AKZ214. Blizzard Warning for AKZ201-AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ213. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ206-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ215- AKZ225-AKZ226. Gale Warning for PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230. Storm Warning for PKZ210. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ235-PKZ245. && $$ SDB MAR 21

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