000
FXAK69 PAFG 011502
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
702 AM AKDT Thu Jun 1 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and Wet pattern will persist through Fri, followed by
warming and drying over the Interior this weekend into next week,
while the West Coast remains wet and cool into early next week.

There are ongoing river flooding issues with minor flooding in the
Eastern Interior and near the Yukon Delta.

Could see several inches of snow over the Eastern Alaska Range
and Eastern Brooks Range above 2000 feet this morning.

Rain and snow over the West Coast from the Seward Peninsula south
will spread over the SW Interior today, then over the Western and
Central Interior this evening, and across the Eastern Interior
late tonight and Fri with 0.25-0.50 inches of rain. Expect several
inches of snow above 2000 ft over the West Coast and Interior
through Fri, with less than an inch along the West Coast close to
sea level.

Expect snow to spread over the Eastern North Slope late tonight
through Fri night with 4-6 inches over the Brooks Range from
Anaktuvuk Pass east.

Aloft...
A very deep low aloft over the CHukchi Sea will persist through
Sat then move north next week as a ridge over NW Canada builds NW
across Alaska next week. A series of strong short wave troughs
will move out of this low and east across Northern Alaska over the
next several days.

The first short wave that extends from Deadhorse to Denali will
move east to the ALCAN Border this afternoon then continue east.

A second short wave over the West Coast will move over the Western
INterior this afternoon, over the Central Interior tonight, over
the Eastern Interior on Fri then move east of the ALCAN Border.

Surface...
A 1008 mb low near Nome will move to Galena this afternoon, to
Anaktuvuk Pass tonight, and to near Barter Island on Fri. A cold
front trailing south of this low will move east to the ALCAN
Border by Fri. Snow and Rain will spread east with the low and
cold front. Expect 0.25-0.50 inch of liquid, with several inches
of snow above 2000 ft. Could see up to 6 inches of snow in the
Brooks Range tonight through Fri night with this. There is even
light snow accumulating along portions of the West Coast this
morning with the front. Temps will cool along and west of this
front. West winds gusting to 25 mph along the cold front will
spread east with the front today and tonight, with winds
decreasing west of the front.

A 1002 MB low north of Wrangel Is will move to 250 NM northwest
of Cape Lisburne by 4pm Thu, then to 100 NM northwest of Cape
Lisburne as a 998 mb low by 4pm Fri, and to 150 NM northwest of
Wainwright as a 999 MB low by 4pm Sat. This will bring snow to
northwest Alaska Fri night and Sat with 1-2 inches possible.

A low in the Southwest Bering Sea will move to the Southern
Bering Sea on Fri and to the Southeast Bering Sea on Sat. This
will bring rain to SW AK on Sat with a chance of rain over the
Western Interior and Seward Pen on Sat.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
At 00Z, models initialize well aloft and show similar solutions
through 4pm Fri. After that time there are increasing differences
in timing of short wave troughs. At this time there are no good
reasons to favor any models aloft so will use a blend of models
fore features aloft through 4pm Sat.

At 850 mb, temperatures range from 0C over SW Alaska and along the
ALCAN Border to -14C over NW Alaska. Will see 850 mb temps drop
4-8C along the West Coast today, then temps rising several C most
areas Fri, then rising another several C on Sat, with continued
warming most areas next week. Surface temps will follow same
trends with today being well below normal and slightly cooler than
Wed, then Fri warming a few degrees F, and Sat warming another
few degrees, with bigger warm up to near normal by Sun, and above
normal next week.

With precipitation, models show similar solutions for areal;
coverage and amounts through 4AM Fri, then the NAM decreases
coverage much faster than the GFS and ECMWF during the day Fri.
Will handle this by using a blend of models for areal coverage and
amounts through Sat. Should show the following highlights: Snow
likely over NE Alaska today with 1-2 inches, Snow above 2000 ft in
the Alaska Range this morning with 1-2 inches additional
accumulation, rain and snow over the West Coast from the Seward
Pen south spreading over the SW Interior today then over the
Western and Central Interior this evening, and across the Eastern
Interior late tonight and Fri with 0.25-0.50 inch of precip, and
several inches of snow above 2000 ft. Expect snow to spread over
the Eastern North Slope Fri and Fri night with 4-6 inches over the
Brooks Range from Anaktuvuk Pass east. Expect snow over NW Alaska
Fri night and Sat with 1-2 inches possible, then rain likely over
SW AK on Sat with a chance of rain over the Western Interior and
Seward Pen on Sat.

At the surface at 06Z, models verify well on most features but
all appear a bit weak on the low about 300 NM northwest of
Utqiagvik. Models have similar solutions at the surface through
4pm today, then the NAM and Canadian Models show a deeper low
moving northeast across the Interior and North Slope of AK. Since
there is a secondary cold front feeding cold air into this system
today and tonight, favor the deeper NAM and Canadian solutions.
Winds will be generally less than 25 mph today, except with the
cold front trailing the West Coast low as it moves northeast
across AK today through Fri where W winds gusting to 25 mph will
occur, and the East winds gusting to 25 mph over the Eastern
Arctic on Fri. Will also see SW winds 25 mph over NW AK on Fri and
Fri night. South gap flow through Alaska Range passes could see
gusts of 35 mph tonight diminishing on Fri.


Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Much cooler and wetter conditions than normal through Fri. RH
should remain above 30% through Fri. Warming and drying trend over
the Eastern Interior this weekend into next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Flood Warning for Cripple Creek at Central through 315 pm Thu.
Flood Advisory for the Yukon River from Anvik to the Yukon Delta
with high water slowly falling through the weekend. Flood Advisory
for the Salcha River and the Chena River upstream of the Moose
Creek Dam through 4pm Fri. People along rivers and streams
should prepare for elevated water levels through this week. River
access points and gravel bars will likely be covered with water
along with increased debris in rivers.



&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Flood Warning 220 near Central
     Flood Advisory for AKZ222>224.
     Flood Advisory for AKZ214-215.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ812.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ855.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.
&&

$$

JB