Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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860
FXAK69 PAFG 232226 CCA
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
226 PM AKDT Sun Sep 23 2018

.DISCUSSION...

An unsettled and wet pattern will continue across Northern Alaska
(especially south of the Brooks Range) through Wednesday.
Gap winds likely for the Alaska range and west of the Tok cutoff.
Drier conditions for the west coast and interior on Thursday and
Friday as ridging builds over the state.

Aloft...At 500 mb, a 532 dam low continues to slowly drift across
the eastern Brooks range this afternoon into Sunday evening. A
537 dam low is drifting over Emmonak this afternoon then drift
near Saint Lawrence Island by Monday morning. Another upper level
535 low will track northeast and push across Southcentral Alaska
and the Alaska Range Monday morning into Monday evening and then
over the Eastern Interior by Monday night. From Tuesday morning
through Wedneday, multiple weak shortwaves will move over
Interior Alaska, before upper level ridging builds in over the
state on Thursday.

Surface...A 996 mb low just over Emmonak will drift north into
Norton Sound and weaken through early Monday morning as a 994 mb
low. The low in Norton sound will wobble back to the south again
Tuesday morning. Weak lows will develop over the western and
eastern interiors Monday afternoon Leeside troughing north of the
Alaska Range will develop ahead of this low by Monday morning and
persist into Monday evening. High pressure will continue to
build over the Arctic through Monday.

West Coast and Western Interior...Unsettled, showery pattern will
continue across the area through Tuesday before shower coverage
decreases Tuesday night as an upper level ridge builds north. Dry,
but cloudy conditions will prevail through late Thursday before
moist southerly flow develops over the Bering Sea and West Coast
Friday into next weekend.

Central and Eastern Interior...Numerous to widespread showers will
continue across the area through early this evening before
tapering off as the low over the Eastern Brooks Range moves into
western Canada and ridging aloft and south to southwest flow over
the Alaska Range develops. Strong gusty gap winds will increase
in Alaska Range passes after midnight tonight, peaking late Monday
morning and afternoon along the Parks Highway and then Monday
afternoon and evening along the Richardson Highway. As the flow
becomes southwest Monday afternoon and evening, strong southwest
winds are possible along the Alaska Highway between Dot Lake and
Tanacross and over higher terrain of the fortymile country. Wind
advisories are in effect for zones 225 and 226 mainly in the
passes. Wind advisory is in effect for zone 224 mainly for west of
the Tok cutoff between Dot Lake and Tanacross and portions
of the fortymile country. Rain showers will develop again for the
western interior and central interior Monday evening into
Tuesday.


North Slope and Brooks Range...Snow in the Brooks range
will taper off this evening. High pressure will remain
in control through Tuesday producing areas of fog with visibility
below one mile along with low ceilings along the north slope.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...The models
are hinting at an active pattern along the west coast for late
next week into next weekend. Strong wind and rain is possible
for the Bering strait and Seward Penn on Friday into Saturday.
Will continue to monitor.

HYDROLOGY...Rainfall across the west coast and the Interior
will cause some rises in rivers; however, no issues are expected
at the moment.




&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory for AKZ224-AKZ225-AKZ226.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210.
&&

$$

SEP 18



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