000
FXAK69 PAFG 192338
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
338 PM AKDT Sat Jun 19 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
We are expecting an active today for the Eastern Interior with
the potential for thunderstorms (some of which could produce
strong winds, heavy downpours and gusty winds) as a disturbance
moves through the area. This disturbance will push into the
western Interior on Sunday. Another system will bring increased
chances for rainfall on Elsewhere conditions will be relatively
quiet.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Aloft, at 500 mb, a ridge currently stretches from the Yukon
territory northwest into the Chukchi Sea. A shortwave will push
from southeast to northwest over the Interior along the west side
of the ridge. A low moving to the north in the Gulf of Alaska on
Monday will push the ridge to the north and will cause a trough
to move over the southeastern Interior. The ridge looks to push to
the south on Tuesday. The ridge looks to be push off to the east
starting on Wednesday as a low approaches the Aleutians; however
the details of this are are still somewhat uncertain at the
moment.

Central and Eastern Interior...
A disturbance moving from east to west over the area will bring
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Satellite and radar
imagery already shows development of storms southeast of
Fairbanks, with radar imagery suggesting the presence of hail
within some of the cells along with decent amount of lightning.
Any storms today will be capable of producing hail along with
gusty winds and heavy downpours. On Sunday scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are expected north and west of Fairbanks as
this disturbance pushes west. A low moving into the Gulf of
Alaska has the potential to bring decent rainfall to the
southeastern Interior Sunday night and Monday although there is
still a lot of model uncertainty in exact details of this system
at the moment. Highs in the 70s are expected on Sunday. Cooler
temperatures are expected for Monday, with the area from Fairbanks
southeast expected to remain in the 60s. The northern Interior
has the potential to see gusty east to northeasterly winds late
Monday into Tuesday. Showers will taper off early Tuesday and
temperatures will warm some compared to Monday. Thunderstorm
activity looks to be limited on Tuesday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
We are starting to see fog and low stratus along the coast this
afternoon. Satellite a sizable area of fog and stratus offshore.
With onshore flow expected overnight, we expect to see fog and low
stratus along the coast overnight and into Sunday Morning.
Thunderstorms have started to develop along the Brooks Range this
afternoon. We expect expect thunderstorms to continue again this
evening, with thunderstorms expected to develop again East winds
pick up over the west Arctic Sunday.

West Coast and Western Interior...
A disturbance that is currently moving over the Central and
Eastern Interior will move into the Western Interior this
evening. Rainfall could become heavy overnight although there is
still some uncertainty in the placement of the heaviest
precipitation. More showers and isolated thunderstorms are
expected on Sunday over the Interior and possibly higher terrain
of the Seward Peninsula with more of the same Monday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended Period Forecast Days 4-7...
Beginning the extended period on Wednesday there is a strong
upper level high over the North Slope and Chukchi Sea with broad
easterly flow over the AK Range. This should continue the warming
and drying trend for the Interior. Thereafter, the pattern
becomes a little bit more uncertain although it looks like the
threat for showers and thunderstorms will increase.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Scattered thunderstorms have developed to the east of Fairbanks
this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected this evening
north of Fox and south of Beaver with isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms elsewhere. Red Flag warnings for lighting
have been posted for this evening for portions of zones 220 and
222. Gusty south winds will develop through the AK Range passes
this evening and into Sunday. Less instability and a bit
drier/warmer on Sunday with the instability axis shifting
northward into the Upper Koyukuk and Yukon Flats. On Monday, a
front shifts south which pushes the isolated thunderstorm and
shower threat back south across the southern Interior toward the
AK Range.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Water levels may remain high across the Eastern Alaska Range today
as more heavy rainfall fell last night, thus backcountry
travelers should continue to be cautious as the stream and creek
levels will likely be high and fast through this evening. There is
a potential for heavier rainfall on Monday in the southeast
Interior that may bring rises to streams and creeks in the
Fortymile Country. There are currently no concerns with the
mainstem rivers north of the Alaska Range. For the latest river
information go to www.weather.gov/aprfc.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

JUN 21