Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK

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000 FXAK67 PAJK 010025 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 325 PM AKST Sun Feb 28 2021 SHORT TERM.../Through Tuesday night/...The surface low currently near Yakutat will dissipate later tonight bringing an end to the strong winds across the Northern Panhandle. The active pattern will continue though as a second low forms tomorrow in a similar location, thus helping to continue the current conditions. The front associated with this low will move into the panhandle on Monday afternoon. This will moderate temperatures into the evening hours, but still expect the transition from rain to snow to be delayed until Tuesday morning. The winter storm warning for the Klondike Highway remains in effect until 11 pm tonight. Precip remains in the forecast through Tuesday with the possibility of breaks in the clouds early tomorrow morning, similar to what some areas saw today. Snow totals will be variable, ranging from a trace to as much as 5 inches. These totals will need to be monitored, as additional QPF could see some areas yield higher amounts. Currently anticipate the highest totals near Yakutat, Petersburg, and higher elevations including the highways. Southerly gales over the Gulf will calm down later tonight, but will pick up again to a similar force by Monday afternoon. Small craft advisories will take place in the northern inner channels specifically over Lynn Canal, Northern Chatham, Stephens Passage, and Cross Sound. Continued to adjust QPF based on GFS/NAM with some additional changes made to account for orographic shadowing in certain areas. Timing of temperatures was adjusted to accompany the system on Monday. Overall forecast confidence is average with lower confidence on snow/rain transitions. LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Sunday night/...The active weather pattern continues, though a chance for some drier weather does emerge towards the end of the week. Much of the week`s weather will be centered around a broad trough and its corresponding surface reflection in the Gulf. A series of impulses moving around this system will continue to deliver moisture and precipitation to the panhandle. Much of the area will see rain during the daytime hours with snow mixing back in as temperatures settle overnight. Some guidance is suggesting that a particularly strong impulse will impact the area during the Thursday-Friday timeframe, but agreement on timing and location remains poor. As the trough and its corresponding surface low slowly weaken through the latter half of the week, some chance of drying for parts of the area is present Friday through Sunday. However guidance, both operation and ensemble, remain in disagreement and confidence remains low. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for AKZ018-019-025. Strong Wind until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ022-023. Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM AKST this afternoon for AKZ018. Strong Wind Monday afternoon for AKZ018. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-021-022-031-032-042-043-052. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ033>035-041-051-053. && $$ KRT/GFS Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

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