012
FXAK67 PAJK 090600
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1000 PM AKDT Tue Jul 8 2025

.UPDATE...For Insertion of the 06Z Aviation Section...

&&

.SHORT TERM...Conditions across the panhandle remain rather damp
and grey Tuesday afternoon, with some locally heavy showers moving
through the central and southern panhandle earlier in the day. An
upper level trough will continue to move eastward Tuesday night,
before s surface ridge builds in over the panhandle form the south
into Wednesday. Some cloud breaks tonight as showers diminish and
allow for radiational cooling and lower overnight temperatures
heading into Wednesday morning, with isolated patchy fog possible.
With persistent onshore flow, coastal communities could still see
an isolated shower Wednesday due to orographic effects, but
overall precipitation chances fall throughout the overnight period
into Wednesday with the departure of the upper level trough.

With the ridge building in on Wednesday, conditions across the
panhandle will be relatively benign, with the exception being
areas that could see stout sea breezes such as Lynn Canal up to
Taiya Inlet. For Wednesday night into Thursday, light winds
combined with less cloud cover could see more patchy fog
development, particularly further inland from the coast, ahead of
an approaching gale force front late Wednesday into Thursday. For
more information on the next impactful system later this week,
see the long term discussion.

.LONG TERM...

Key messages:
- Surface ridge gets pushed out by approaching low in the gulf
- Atmospheric river brings moderate to heavy rain Thursday
- Gale force winds along the NE coast and near Dixon Entrance

Details: The main long term impact will be the atmospheric river
funneling moisture into the panhandle Thursday into Friday. The
ridge over the panhandle will continue getting pushed eastward by
a surface low pressure system with an upper level low in the
western gulf. With the help of the upper level jet, the associated
warm front will reach the panhandle through late Thursday
morning, fueled by a large plume of increased moisture from a
moderate atmospheric river. This system is expected to bring
widespread moderate to heavy precipitation through Thursday
afternoon. Highest rates will occur Thursday night into early
Friday morning, with a majority of areas (mostly in the southern
panhandle or along the coast) seeing potential for 1.5 to 2 inches
of rain in this period.

Sustained gale force winds of 35 to 40 kts are expected toward
the NE gulf with the strongest winds off the coast of Cape
Yakataga. The rest of the eastern gulf coast will still see
increased winds to strong breezes of 25 to 30 kts along the
outside marine waters. Inner channels winds increase up to 30 kts
with the strongest at ocean entrances and in Clarence Strait near
Dixon Entrance. Land areas in the southern panhandle and off the
coast of Yakutat could experience wind gusts around 35 mph.

Confidence continues to increase in the strength of the AR with
multiple IVT ensembles showing the likelihood of a magnitude of
>500 kg/m/s of integrated water vapor transport, a moderate
atmospheric river, moving over the panhandle. EFIs are indicating
a high QPF potential for the southern panhandle with a shift of
tails of 2. NBM guidance is indicating much higher amounts of
precipitation than initially expected, leading the decision to
increase amounts for areas of the southern panhandle to >0.5
inches of rain in 6 hours. In 24 hours, areas across the panhandle
will receive 1 to 2 inches of rain, with southern Baranof Island
and higher elevations receiving up to 3 inches. Currently, no
flooding impacts are expected, but increased snow levels with
heavy rain rates can lead to rises in rivers and creeks to bank
full.

Active weather continues for SE AK into next weekend as onshore
flow with a few embedded shortwaves keep the panhandle damp. Stay
tuned as we will continue to update the forecast ahead of this
system.

&&

.AVIATION...Until 06Z Thursday/...As far as CIGs & VISs, a mix of
MVFR & VFR flight conditions this evening will give way to a mix
of MVFR & IFR category conditions overnight. Conditions should be
improved to within the VFR category by Wednesday afternoon as the
current weather system continues to depart the area & a ridge
builds-in over the eastern Gulf & Panhandle region. As far as SFC
winds, rather breezy/gusty conditions out of the south are in
store for the entire TAF period for the northern Lynn Canal
region, including PAGY & PAHN, as a relatively tight south to
north oriented pressure gradient will remain in place over that
area. LLWS values appear rather benign across the entire region
through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Inside waters: As a surface trough over the northern inner
channels shifts off to the east today, high pressure will build in
from the south. Southerly winds have increased through the day,
with strongest winds being observed along Lynn Canal. The ridge
will be quite flat for the next 24hrs, leading to a general W
wind, which means some N-S passage wind directions will want to
kink either NW or SW, or become variable <10kt. Sunny breaks will
enhance sea breeze winds in the afternoon and early evening
Wednesday.

Outside waters: Generally west winds of around 15 kt as ridge
builds in from the southeast. Seas still remain on the low end
with gulf buoys reporting 4 - 5 ft combined seas and a S swell
with a 15 second period. Expect seas of 4-6ft to persist until a
stronger front approaches late Wednesday night and winds increase
to gale force (+35kt) out of the southeast by Thursday morning.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM....ZTK
AVIATION...JLC
MARINE...STJ

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau