Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 041126 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 626 AM EST Thu Mar 4 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A dry cold front moves through the area this morning. High pressure slowly builds into the area through this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 310 AM EST Thursday... Early morning wx analysis shows high pressure centered near the Hudson Bay, ridging south-southwestward into the MS River Valley. A fairly strong area of low pressure at the surface and aloft was centered near Newfoundland, with troughing aloft over ern Canada and the Northeast CONUS. A dry cold front is starting to enter the local area at this hour as winds are turning to the WNW (but remain light). Temperatures are mainly in the 30s to low 40s. That cold front is progged to push through the area this morning. NW winds will increase to 10-20 mph today (highest over the Ern Shore), with gusts to ~20 mph inland and 25-30 mph near the immediate coast/on the Ern Shore. Skies are will generally be clear through sunrise, but SCT CU or SC is expected today (especially NE). The bulk of the cold air will lag a bit behind the initial FROPA, so highs today are once again forecast to range from the low-mid 50s to low 60s (coolest over the Ern shore/warmest S). A secondary (stronger) CAA surge arrives from the NNW this evening and lasts through tonight. Any remaining cloud cover will clear from NNW-SSE by late this evening. Additionally, there will be a noticeable drop in dew points tonight with this secondary CAA surge. Lows fall into the mid 20s N, upper 20s central, and low 30s in SE VA/NE NC. Winds turn to the NNW and diminish a bit inland tonight, but remain gusty (to 20-25 mph) near the coast. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 310 AM EST Thursday... The high currently over the Hudson Bay is progged to slowly build south-southeastward from Friday-Saturday. Meanwhile, the low over Newfoundland will not move much and a long wave trough will remain in place from Ern Canada to the Mid-Atlantic. This will result in continued low-level NW-NNW flow and additional (mainly nocturnal) CAA surges. In addition, a southern stream shortwave is progged to track from the Deep South to off the SE CONUS coast from Friday night through Saturday. However, the aforementioned long wave trough over eastern Canada will keep this system and its moisture suppressed well to our south (from srn SC to FL). Skies remain clear through Fri evening, with potentially some high clouds overspreading srn/sern portions of the FA by early Sat AM (with clearing expected by late in the day on Saturday). Highs range from the low/mid 40s NE to low 50s SW on both days. Lows Fri night will generally be in the 25-30F range. On Friday, mixing up to ~850 mb and a downslope component to the low-level flow will allow dew points to fall into the single digits over a large part of the area during the day. Dew points are forecast to be slightly higher (teens) during the day on Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 310 AM EST Thursday... Mainly dry weather will continue from Saturday night through early next week. The strong long wave trough over Ern Canada/much of the ern CONUS will finally push offshore by Mon AM. The surface high continues to build toward the area before becoming centered just to our west Monday AM. Lows Sat/Sun nights will be in the mid/upper 20s in most areas, with highs Sunday in the 40s to around 50F. A warming trend begins early next week as ridging aloft builds over the ern CONUS and the surface high becomes centered off the Carolina coast. This will result in SSW-SW low level flow across the FA. High temperatures will warm each day from the 50s on Monday to upper 60s by Wednesday. Low temperatures will warm each morning and be in the 30s and 40s by Tuesday and Wednesday. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 625 AM EST Thursday... VFR conditions will prevail through the 12z TAF period. Winds are turning to the WNW at the terminals as a dry cold front is moving through the region. That cold front crosses the region this morning which will allow winds to turn to the NW by late morning and increase to 10-15 kt with gusts of 20-25 kt (highest gusts will last through late aftn). Could see some SCT CU/SC around 5000 ft AGL today as well (especially during the latter part of the day). SKC conditions return from NNW-SSE tonight with N-NW winds around 10 kt. Gusts to 20 kt will remain possible at ORF through tonight. OUTLOOK...A prolonged period of generally benign weather is expected to continue into early next week as high pressure builds back over the area. && .MARINE... As of 220 AM EST Thursday... Winds beginning to swing to WNW over the local waters as a cold front crosses the region. That front will be E and S of the local waters by mid/late this morning. There is still potential for a brief period of enhanced speeds to low end SCA for about an hour or two...esp over elevated terminals across the Ches Bay. Wind probs show AOB 20% prob of SCA criteria (30-50% over the nrn ocean waters) being met through this afternoon...so will hold off and cap winds at 15 kt...w/ poss gusts to ~20 KT. Winds briefly subside into the afternoon...to be followed by a second/stronger period of CAA late this afternoon/this evening through Fri morning with NNW winds increasing to 15-25 kt with gusts of up to 30 kt. SCAs will remain in place. Generally benign marine conditions then favored later Fri and over the upcoming weekend. Sfc hi pres rebuilds over the mid-Atlantic region...eventually pushing offshore late in the weekend into early next week while another weak area of sfc lo pres moves E-NE across the Gulf coast to the southeast coast. Looking to remain sub-SCA through this time frame...w/ with winds out of the N-NW Sun-Mon. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Friday for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to noon EST Friday for ANZ630>632-634-652-654. Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to noon EST Friday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to noon EST Friday for ANZ638. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Friday for ANZ656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for ANZ650. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ERI/RMM NEAR TERM...ERI SHORT TERM...ERI/RMM LONG TERM...CP/ERI AVIATION...ERI MARINE...ALB/MAM

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