Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 091210 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 710 AM EST Fri Dec 9 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Spotty light rain this morning near and south of the VA/NC border will diminish as high pressure builds in from the north. High pressure remains across the area Saturday, followed by a weak low pressure system late Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure builds back into the area early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 350 AM EST Friday... Upper air analysis shows a closed low moving into Iowa from Nebraska with a belt of zonal flow stretching from W to E across the southern half of the CONUS. Upper ridging continues across the southern Gulf of Mexico. A weak surface low, associated with the upper level feature, will move into the Midwest today. Strong surface high pressure over in Ontario/Quebec will be a quasi-permanent feature through the majority of the forecast. Radar and surface observations show some very light rain early this morning, along and south of the I-64 corridor. These showers/sprinkles will become increasingly confined to the southwestern counties through sunrise as high pressure ridges southward to the east of the Appalachian terrain. Clearing will follow a similar pattern, spreading from N to S through the afternoon. Afternoon highs will not be quite as warm as the last few days with temps topping out upper 40s to low 50s for most of the area (mid 50s for far SE VA and NE NC). The aforementioned upper low and surface reflection will shear out/lose definition tonight as high pressure continues to build southward. Will maintain very slight chance PoPs across the far west this evening but the main impact to local weather will be more cloud cover along and west of I- 95. Lows tonight range from the mid/upper 30s along and SW of I-64 with upper 20s and low 30s for the Northern Neck and MD Eastern Shore where cloud cover is expected to be the thinnest. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 350 AM EST Friday... Canadian high pressure remains largely stationary just east of Hudson Bay with ridging stretching south into the local area. Some weak overrunning moisture atop the cooler surface layer will result in partly to mostly cloudy skies across the Piedmont on Saturday with more clearing expected from I-95 east. Temperatures will only rise into the mid to upper 40s for much of the area with low and mid 50s for the SE quarter of the area including Hampton Roads and NE NC. A shortwave trough dives under the ridge from the Midwest into the Ohio Valley Saturday night into Sunday, bringing a weak front towards the area. 00z guidance continues the downward trend with respect to measurable precip with this feature and have reduced PoPs to just a slight chance with the relative highest PoPs across our northern counties in VA and MD. Low temps Saturday and Sunday nights generally in the 30s with low 40s for the far SE portions of the area. CAD wedging holds across the Piedmont on Sunday with cloudy skies expected over most of the area. High temps range from the mid/upper 40s W to the low/mid 50s E. The cold front moves through late Sunday night with breezy NW/N winds near the coast. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 350 AM EST Friday... High pressure builds southward again Monday as low pressure deepens well offshore, resulting in dry/cool weather into midweek. Temps warm into the upper 40s and low 50s Monday with overnight lows falling back into the mid 20s to low 30s. A bit cooler Tuesday with high temps mostly in the mid 40s despite mostly clear skies inland. More clouds are expected for Hampton Roads and areas to the south with northerly winds bringing some bay-effect clouds to the region through mid to late afternoon. Low temps Tuesday night will fall into the mid 20s inland with low 30s near the coast. Low pressure across the central CONUS will have trouble dislodging the surface ridge on Wednesday but is expected to make some progress by Thursday, which will bring a chance for precip back to the region. Have capped PoPs during this period at Chance for now given how persistent the Canadian ridge has been. A warming trend in temperatures expected late in the period as southerly flow finally returns. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 650 AM EST Friday... VFR conditions in place this morning across the TAF sites. Winds are from the NE 5-10 kt and are expected to remain in that range through the day before diminishing to ~5 kt this evening. Satellite and surface observations show clearing across the Eastern Shore and Northern Neck expanding slowly to the SW. Radar shows some light echoes along and SW of a line from FVX to ECG but these will end before the afternoon with most of the area remaining dry through the period. Outlook: High pressure prevails Saturday, with a weak low pressure system bringing a slight chc of rain Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure returns Monday. && .MARINE...
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As of 700 AM EST Friday... Strong sfc high pressure is centered across Ontario this morning and is forecast to build east into Quebec through Saturday, strengthening to ~1050mb. Weak low pressure is currently passing by south of the waters and will get pushed well south today as the strong high to the north ridges south. SCAs remain in effect for the coastal waters through the weekend and the mouth of the Bay into Saturday primarily for elevated seas (5-7ft) and waves (3-4ft at the mouth of the Bay). Have also added SCA for the Currituck Sound through 21Z this aftn. Gusts to around 20kt will continue this morning elsewhere but expect this to be short-lived so have issued an MWS for the lower James/remainder of the Bay through 9am. Either way, boating conditions will be less than ideal with 2-3 ft waves in the remainder of the Bay. Fairly similar conditions persist overnight and on Saturday as the strong sfc high is slow to push east across Quebec. A sfc low slides off the Mid Atlantic/southern New England coast N of the local waters late Sunday allowing for a cold front to push across the area and for winds to become NW, increasing to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt late Sun night through Mon night. Additional SCAs will likely be needed for this surge (particularly across the Bay and the Currituck sound). Seas are forecast to build a little higher, potentially reaching to 7-9 ft by Mon night. Even as winds are forecast to slowly diminish by Tue, seas are expected to stay elevated, so SCAs will likely continue to be extended through at least the middle of the week.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... as of 400 AM EST Friday... Expect to see slowly rising water levels/tidal departures into the weekend with a continued N/NE flow and seas remaining elevated w/ long period swell. As of right now, only low end minor flooding or action stage water levels are forecast through early monday. However, given that seas are forecast to remain elevated or even increase further into Tuesday, the potential is there for water to become trapped in the Bay which could lead to more significant flooding. Still a lot of uncertainty but will need to monitor the trends closely over the next few days. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for ANZ650-652-654- 656-658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...RHR NEAR TERM...RHR SHORT TERM...RHR LONG TERM...RHR AVIATION...RHR MARINE...LKB/RMM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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