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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 211959
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
359 PM EDT Wed Oct 21 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
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A ridge of high pressure remains over the area through Friday
night. A cold front will cross the area Saturday night.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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As of 355 PM EDT Wednesday...

Very nice aftn across the area under a partly to mostly sunny
sky, as the high off the New England coast continues to
dominate. Temps were ranging from the mid 70s to lower 80s.

High pressure, sfc and aloft, will maintain dry wx thru Fri
night, as it will be right over the area then shifts father into
the Atlc. Clear to mostly clear sky through early tonight, then
expect more low clouds (stratus) and fog by early Thu morning.
Lows tonight in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 355 PM EDT Wednesday...

Morning fog/stratus gives way to another partly to mostly
sunny/mild aftn Thu. Highs 75-80. Clear to mostly clear again
through early Thu night, then areas of stratus/fog possible
early Fri morning. Lows Thu night in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
A little more cloud coverage on Fri (partly sunny). Highs in
the mid to upper 70s.

Dry wx Fri night with some more increasing clouds, as a cold
front approaches from the WNW. Lows in the upper 50s to lower
60s. The cold front slowly drops into the region on Sat,
bringing a chance of showers Sat aftn/evening. Highs on Sat will
range through the 70s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 355 PM EDT Wednesday...

Latest model guidance has come into better agreement showing a cold
front moving through the region Saturday through Saturday evening. A
few isolated showers will remain possible (30-35% PoPs) through the
evening before gradually diminishing overnight. Any precipitation
should be light. The cold front will usher in cooler temperatures
for Sunday with highs ranging from around 60F NW to the low to mid
70s SE. An isolated shower cannot be ruled out early Sunday (25-30%
PoPs) before drying out later in the day. Monday and Tuesday will be
warmer with highs ranging from the low 70s NW to the upper 70s to
near 80F SE. Another cold front moves through Tuesday into Tuesday
evening and will remain mostly dry with just a few isolated showers
possible (25-30% PoPs). This cold front will drop the highs on
Wednesday into the low 60s NW and into the low 70s SE. Lows will
range from the low 50s NW to the low 60s SE on Saturday, Sunday, and
Tuesday nights. Lows will range from the upper 50s NW to the low to
mid 60s SE on Monday night and from the upper 40s NW to the upper
50s SE on Wednesday night.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 215 PM EDT Wednesday...

VFR conditions expected this aftn with SCT_BKN CU 3000-4000 ft,
and E-S winds less than 10 kt. Another episode of fog and ST
likely tonight into Thu morning, as winds will be variable 5 kt
or less. VFR conditions expected at all TAF sites by around 16Z
on Thu.

Outlook...
Much of the same for the rest of the week with IFR conditions from
fog/low clouds possible Thu/Fri nights. Otherwise, the next
chance for showers is Sat aftn through Sun, as a cold front
moves through the region.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 235 PM EDT Wednesday...

Overall thinking with the forecast remains the same as high
pressure centered over the Mid-Atlantic states stretches
eastward into the northern Atlantic the afternoon with Hurricane
Epsilon continuing to strengthen over the Central Atlantic. The
area of high pressure will remain in place over the region from
this afternoon through Friday before finally breaking down as a
cold front approaches the region on Saturday and cross the area
by Sunday morning. With the area of high pressure in place for
the next several days expect generally light winds of 5 to 10
kts through Friday with a gradually turn to easterly flow by
Thursday night and more southerly flow by Saturday morning. Each
morning will likely see more patchy fog as has been the case for
the last few mornings. Seas will be on the increase however as
the swell from Hurricane Epsilon begins to arrive on Thursday
with seas increasing to 5 - 6 Ft in the coastal waters by
Thursday evening and continuing into the weekend. Expect that
some of this energy will also creep into the lower Chesapeake
Bay. So with this update will add SCA for the mouth of the Bay
zone with 3 to 4 ft waves expected beginning on Thursday
evening. Might need to add one more bay zone, but for now have
held to just the mouth of the baby zone.

On Saturday, with the cold front moving through the waters will
see a wind shift from SW to the NW and North Sat night into
Sunday behind the front. The off shore flow combined with
Hurricane Epsilon being pushed away from the coast should begin
to reduce the approaching swell and allow seas to begin to fall.
For now have left the SCA through Friday afternoon, but it will
likely need to be extended and additional 24 to 36 hours when
the seas finally diminish.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
As of 220 PM EDT Wednesday...

KDOX radar is back on line.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Thursday to 6 PM EDT Friday for
     ANZ634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Thursday to 6 PM EDT Friday for
     ANZ650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...MPR/TMG
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...ESS/JDM
EQUIPMENT...AKQ