Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 211959 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 359 PM EDT Wed Oct 21 2020 .SYNOPSIS...
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A ridge of high pressure remains over the area through Friday night. A cold front will cross the area Saturday night.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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As of 355 PM EDT Wednesday... Very nice aftn across the area under a partly to mostly sunny sky, as the high off the New England coast continues to dominate. Temps were ranging from the mid 70s to lower 80s. High pressure, sfc and aloft, will maintain dry wx thru Fri night, as it will be right over the area then shifts father into the Atlc. Clear to mostly clear sky through early tonight, then expect more low clouds (stratus) and fog by early Thu morning. Lows tonight in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 355 PM EDT Wednesday... Morning fog/stratus gives way to another partly to mostly sunny/mild aftn Thu. Highs 75-80. Clear to mostly clear again through early Thu night, then areas of stratus/fog possible early Fri morning. Lows Thu night in the upper 50s to lower 60s. A little more cloud coverage on Fri (partly sunny). Highs in the mid to upper 70s. Dry wx Fri night with some more increasing clouds, as a cold front approaches from the WNW. Lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. The cold front slowly drops into the region on Sat, bringing a chance of showers Sat aftn/evening. Highs on Sat will range through the 70s.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 355 PM EDT Wednesday... Latest model guidance has come into better agreement showing a cold front moving through the region Saturday through Saturday evening. A few isolated showers will remain possible (30-35% PoPs) through the evening before gradually diminishing overnight. Any precipitation should be light. The cold front will usher in cooler temperatures for Sunday with highs ranging from around 60F NW to the low to mid 70s SE. An isolated shower cannot be ruled out early Sunday (25-30% PoPs) before drying out later in the day. Monday and Tuesday will be warmer with highs ranging from the low 70s NW to the upper 70s to near 80F SE. Another cold front moves through Tuesday into Tuesday evening and will remain mostly dry with just a few isolated showers possible (25-30% PoPs). This cold front will drop the highs on Wednesday into the low 60s NW and into the low 70s SE. Lows will range from the low 50s NW to the low 60s SE on Saturday, Sunday, and Tuesday nights. Lows will range from the upper 50s NW to the low to mid 60s SE on Monday night and from the upper 40s NW to the upper 50s SE on Wednesday night.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 215 PM EDT Wednesday... VFR conditions expected this aftn with SCT_BKN CU 3000-4000 ft, and E-S winds less than 10 kt. Another episode of fog and ST likely tonight into Thu morning, as winds will be variable 5 kt or less. VFR conditions expected at all TAF sites by around 16Z on Thu. Outlook... Much of the same for the rest of the week with IFR conditions from fog/low clouds possible Thu/Fri nights. Otherwise, the next chance for showers is Sat aftn through Sun, as a cold front moves through the region. && .MARINE... As of 235 PM EDT Wednesday... Overall thinking with the forecast remains the same as high pressure centered over the Mid-Atlantic states stretches eastward into the northern Atlantic the afternoon with Hurricane Epsilon continuing to strengthen over the Central Atlantic. The area of high pressure will remain in place over the region from this afternoon through Friday before finally breaking down as a cold front approaches the region on Saturday and cross the area by Sunday morning. With the area of high pressure in place for the next several days expect generally light winds of 5 to 10 kts through Friday with a gradually turn to easterly flow by Thursday night and more southerly flow by Saturday morning. Each morning will likely see more patchy fog as has been the case for the last few mornings. Seas will be on the increase however as the swell from Hurricane Epsilon begins to arrive on Thursday with seas increasing to 5 - 6 Ft in the coastal waters by Thursday evening and continuing into the weekend. Expect that some of this energy will also creep into the lower Chesapeake Bay. So with this update will add SCA for the mouth of the Bay zone with 3 to 4 ft waves expected beginning on Thursday evening. Might need to add one more bay zone, but for now have held to just the mouth of the baby zone. On Saturday, with the cold front moving through the waters will see a wind shift from SW to the NW and North Sat night into Sunday behind the front. The off shore flow combined with Hurricane Epsilon being pushed away from the coast should begin to reduce the approaching swell and allow seas to begin to fall. For now have left the SCA through Friday afternoon, but it will likely need to be extended and additional 24 to 36 hours when the seas finally diminish. && .EQUIPMENT... As of 220 PM EDT Wednesday... KDOX radar is back on line. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Thursday to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Thursday to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ650-652-654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...TMG SHORT TERM...MPR/TMG LONG TERM...MRD AVIATION...TMG MARINE...ESS/JDM EQUIPMENT...AKQ

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