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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 041126
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
626 AM EST Thu Mar 4 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A dry cold front moves through the area this morning. High pressure
slowly builds into the area through this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 310 AM EST Thursday...

Early morning wx analysis shows high pressure centered near the
Hudson Bay, ridging south-southwestward into the MS River
Valley. A fairly strong area of low pressure at the surface and
aloft was centered near Newfoundland, with troughing aloft over
ern Canada and the Northeast CONUS. A dry cold front is
starting to enter the local area at this hour as winds are
turning to the WNW (but remain light). Temperatures are mainly
in the 30s to low 40s. That cold front is progged to push
through the area this morning. NW winds will increase to 10-20
mph today (highest over the Ern Shore), with gusts to ~20 mph
inland and 25-30 mph near the immediate coast/on the Ern Shore.
Skies are will generally be clear through sunrise, but SCT CU
or SC is expected today (especially NE). The bulk of the cold
air will lag a bit behind the initial FROPA, so highs today are
once again forecast to range from the low-mid 50s to low 60s
(coolest over the Ern shore/warmest S).

A secondary (stronger) CAA surge arrives from the NNW this
evening and lasts through tonight. Any remaining cloud cover
will clear from NNW-SSE by late this evening. Additionally,
there will be a noticeable drop in dew points tonight with this
secondary CAA surge. Lows fall into the mid 20s N, upper 20s
central, and low 30s in SE VA/NE NC. Winds turn to the NNW and
diminish a bit inland tonight, but remain gusty (to 20-25 mph)
near the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 310 AM EST Thursday...

The high currently over the Hudson Bay is progged to slowly
build south-southeastward from Friday-Saturday. Meanwhile, the
low over Newfoundland will not move much and a long wave trough
will remain in place from Ern Canada to the Mid-Atlantic. This
will result in continued low-level NW-NNW flow and additional
(mainly nocturnal) CAA surges. In addition, a southern stream
shortwave is progged to track from the Deep South to off the SE
CONUS coast from Friday night through Saturday. However, the
aforementioned long wave trough over eastern Canada will keep
this system and its moisture suppressed well to our south (from
srn SC to FL). Skies remain clear through Fri evening, with
potentially some high clouds overspreading srn/sern portions of
the FA by early Sat AM (with clearing expected by late in the
day on Saturday). Highs range from the low/mid 40s NE to low 50s
SW on both days. Lows Fri night will generally be in the 25-30F
range. On Friday, mixing up to ~850 mb and a downslope
component to the low-level flow will allow dew points to fall
into the single digits over a large part of the area during the
day. Dew points are forecast to be slightly higher (teens)
during the day on Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 310 AM EST Thursday...

Mainly dry weather will continue from Saturday night through
early next week. The strong long wave trough over Ern
Canada/much of the ern CONUS will finally push offshore by Mon
AM. The surface high continues to build toward the area before
becoming centered just to our west Monday AM. Lows Sat/Sun
nights will be in the mid/upper 20s in most areas, with highs
Sunday in the 40s to around 50F.

A warming trend begins early next week as ridging aloft builds
over the ern CONUS and the surface high becomes centered off the
Carolina coast. This will result in SSW-SW low level flow across
the FA. High temperatures will warm each day from the 50s on
Monday to upper 60s by Wednesday. Low temperatures will warm
each morning and be in the 30s and 40s by Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 625 AM EST Thursday...

VFR conditions will prevail through the 12z TAF period. Winds
are turning to the WNW at the terminals as a dry cold front is
moving through the region. That cold front crosses the region
this morning which will allow winds to turn to the NW by
late morning and increase to 10-15 kt with gusts of 20-25 kt (highest
gusts will last through late aftn). Could see some SCT CU/SC
around 5000 ft AGL today as well (especially during the latter
part of the day). SKC conditions return from NNW-SSE tonight
with N-NW winds around 10 kt. Gusts to 20 kt will remain
possible at ORF through tonight.

OUTLOOK...A prolonged period of generally benign weather is
expected to continue into early next week as high pressure
builds back over the area.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 220 AM EST Thursday...

Winds beginning to swing to WNW over the local waters as a cold
front crosses the region. That front will be E and S of the
local waters by mid/late this morning. There is still potential
for a brief period of enhanced speeds to low end SCA for about
an hour or two...esp over elevated terminals across the Ches
Bay. Wind probs show AOB 20% prob of SCA criteria (30-50% over
the nrn ocean waters) being met through this afternoon...so
will hold off and cap winds at 15 kt...w/ poss gusts to ~20 KT.
Winds briefly subside into the afternoon...to be followed by a
second/stronger period of CAA late this afternoon/this evening
through Fri morning with NNW winds increasing to 15-25 kt with
gusts of up to 30 kt. SCAs will remain in place.

Generally benign marine conditions then favored later Fri and over
the upcoming weekend. Sfc hi pres rebuilds over the mid-Atlantic
region...eventually pushing offshore late in the weekend into
early next week while another weak area of sfc lo pres moves
E-NE across the Gulf coast to the southeast coast. Looking to
remain sub-SCA through this time frame...w/ with winds out of
the N-NW Sun-Mon.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM EST
     Friday for ANZ635>637.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to noon EST Friday
     for ANZ630>632-634-652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to noon EST Friday
     for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to noon EST
     Friday for ANZ638.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EST
     Friday for ANZ656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for ANZ650.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ERI/RMM
NEAR TERM...ERI
SHORT TERM...ERI/RMM
LONG TERM...CP/ERI
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...ALB/MAM