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068
FXUS61 KAKQ 261733
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
133 PM EDT Wed Mar 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure approaches from the west today, bringing dry and
breezy conditions. The high settles over the area tonight into
early Friday, with dry weather and seasonable temperatures
prevailing. Warmer weather is expected over the weekend as high
pressure slides offshore, allowing for an increasing southerly
flow. The next cold front and chance for significant rainfall is
expected Monday into Monday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1030 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Breezy weather conditions and low RH values bring Fire weather
  concerns across VA/NC this aftn/early evening, especially
  across the piedmont where rainfall has been less over the past
  month.

- Cool tonight under a clear sky and with diminishing winds.

Morning WX analysis shows a 500mb trough centered over the
eastern Great Lakes, with the trough axis extending south to
NC. The sky has become mainly sunny with the exception of the
eastern shore where SCT-BKN clouds linger. Winds are already
increasing from the NW, and widespread breezy conditions will
prevail this aftn. RH values will drop down to 15-20% across
much of the area this aftn, with 20-30% to the east. Winds will
average 10-15 mph with gusts to around 25 mph, locally higher (see
Fire WX section for more specific details about today`s fire
risk). High temperatures are progged to warm into the lower to
middle 60s central and S, with upper 50s to lower 60s across the
N. Later tonight high pressure slides over the region diminishing
the winds and allowing for good radiational cooling. Low temperatures
tonight are expected to be 30-35F across most of the CWA, with middle
30s to around 40F along the coast. Will note the Frost/Freeze
program does not restart until April 1st, so no headlines for
frost advisories or freeze warnings will be issued.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Remaining dry Thursday with less wind.

- Turning warmer Friday, but with more clouds and a slight
  chance for showers.

By Thursday the upper trough will be exiting the area, with the
surface high pressure sliding off shore across the SE. Temperatures
Thursday will be seasonable with highs in the lower 60s across VA
and NC and upper 50s across the Eastern Shore. By Thursday nigh the
high pressure will be further to the SE and winds will begin to
shift out of the SSE allowing for warmer air to advect into the
area. Lows will be warmer than the previous night with temperatures
reaching into the lower to middle 40s. By Friday an upper ridge will
be moving in place and a strong warm front will be lifting across
the area allowing temptress to warm up for Friday. Highs for Friday
are progged to be in the lower to middle 70s. There is also a slight
chance of Pops Friday as some of the latest model guidance hints on
showers moving along the warm front. Confidence in these showers are
low at this time and Pops remain confined to the eastern piedmont
and Eastern Shore and are between 15 to 20%.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Well above normal temperatures prevail for the weekend.

- A chance for showers and thunderstorms Monday/Monday night
association with a cold front.

Ensembles continue to show a ridge building in across the east coast
with a strong Bermuda high in place at the surface. This will allow
temperatures to warm into the upper 70s through the weekend.
Saturday could potentially be the driest day as some of the latest
model guidance hints on a weak low moving just north of the FA
Sunday. This lows cold front could bring a chance of showers Sunday
but the better day for showers and possible thunderstorms remains
on Monday. Both the EURO and GEFS ensembles hint on another
potential pressure system tracking just north of the a CWA. Ahead of
its cold front both ensembles hint on moisture making a return to
the are with possible dewpoints in the lower 60s. As well as modest
instability building in, along with ample shear, though again, a lot
of uncertainty is present at this range. For now, PoPs are still in
the chance range for Monday, with highs in the upper 70s to lower
80s. Behind the front on Monday cooler yet seasonable air will make
its return to the CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 130 PM EDT Wednesday...

VFR to prevail through the 18z/26 TAF period. SCT mid-level
clouds continue to stream across the MD Eastern Shore, including
near SBY, with FEW sky cover or SKC elsewhere. These clouds
should clear out over the next few hrs and expect SKC through
tonight and the morning hours of Thursday. NW winds of ~15 kt
with gusts to ~25 kt continue through this afternoon, becoming
light or calm tonight. Winds increase to 5-10 kt after sunrise
Thursday and shift to the W-SW. An increase in mid- high clouds
is also possible near the end of the period.

Outlook: High pressure remains in control for the next couple
of days, bringing VFR conditions to the terminals. A slight
chance for showers returns Friday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
As of 1015 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the bay today for
  gusty northwest winds.

- Mainly sub advisory conditions are expected to prevail from
  tonight through early Friday.

- Southerly winds increase late Friday into Saturday with high
  pressure well off the coast. A cold front will affect the
  local waters by early next week.

SCAs for the entire Bay have been extended through 7Pm this
evening given the very dry airmass and deep mixing through the
period, which should lead to winds averaging 15-20kt with gusts
up to ~25kt through the day. Some gusts to 20 kt are likely on
the rivers/Currituck Sound today...but will continue to hold
off on SCAs.

A secondary CAA surge will still arrive tonight, but this
continues to trend weaker. However, there will probably be some
gusts to ~20kt (mainly on the mid/upper Bay). Seas build to 3-4
ft this aftn, then subside to 2-3 ft tonight. Waves in the Bay
build to around 3 ft with the increasing NW winds, with 2 ft
waves on exposed areas of the rivers.

High pressure builds into the region on Thursday and sub-SCA SW
winds prevail through the weekend (though marginal SCAs are possible
in the Bay Fri night). Some guidance is suggesting there will be
another stronger front by the start of next week, but with that
being so far out in the forecast, uncertainity is fairly high. We
will continue to monitor this over the next few forecast
cycles.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 1015 AM EDT Wednesday...

Dry and breezy conditions are expected today, leading to
increased fire danger across VA/NC, with the most critical
conditions over the piedmont where long term rainfall amounts
have been much lower. Showers from yesterday and late this
morning produced minimal rainfall across the area with less than
.1" reported. Low RH values are progged for today with values
ranging between the upper teens to lower 20s across VA and NC.
In addition, the pressure gradient from the high pressure to the
west and low pressure to the north is expected to tighten
causing wind gusts to be upwards of 20 to 25 mph. A Special
Weather Statement for Increased Fire danger has been issued for
NC/VA from late morning through the early evening.

Virginia residents are reminded that burning prior to 4pm each
day is prohibited until the end of April.

The North Carolina Forest Service has issued a statewide ban on
all open burning and has cancelled all burning permits until
further notice. The NC Forest Service will continue to monitor
condition`s. Residents with questions can contact their NC
State Forest Service county ranger or their county fire
marshal`s office.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER until 7 PM EDT this evening for
     NCZ012>017-030>032.
VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER until 7 PM EDT this evening for VAZ048-
     060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-095>100-509>525.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ630>632-634.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HET/LKB
NEAR TERM...HET/LKB
SHORT TERM...HET
LONG TERM...HET/LKB
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...ERI/LKB
FIRE WEATHER...