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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 091210
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
710 AM EST Fri Dec 9 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Spotty light rain this morning near and south of
the VA/NC border will diminish as high pressure builds in from
the north. High pressure remains across the area Saturday,
followed by a weak low pressure system late Saturday night into
Sunday. High pressure builds back into the area early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 350 AM EST Friday...

Upper air analysis shows a closed low moving into Iowa from Nebraska
with a belt of zonal flow stretching from W to E across the southern
half of the CONUS. Upper ridging continues across the southern Gulf
of Mexico. A weak surface low, associated with the upper level
feature, will move into the Midwest today. Strong surface high
pressure over in Ontario/Quebec will be a quasi-permanent feature
through the majority of the forecast.

Radar and surface observations show some very light rain early this
morning, along and south of the I-64 corridor. These
showers/sprinkles will become increasingly confined to the
southwestern counties through sunrise as high pressure ridges
southward to the east of the Appalachian terrain. Clearing will
follow a similar pattern, spreading from N to S through the
afternoon. Afternoon highs will not be quite as warm as the last few
days with temps topping out upper 40s to low 50s for most of the
area (mid 50s for far SE VA and NE NC). The aforementioned upper low
and surface reflection will shear out/lose definition tonight as
high pressure continues to build southward. Will maintain very
slight chance PoPs across the far west this evening but the main
impact to local weather will be more cloud cover along and west of I-
95. Lows tonight range from the mid/upper 30s along and SW of I-64
with upper 20s and low 30s for the Northern Neck and MD Eastern
Shore where cloud cover is expected to be the thinnest.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 350 AM EST Friday...

Canadian high pressure remains largely stationary just east of
Hudson Bay with ridging stretching south into the local area. Some
weak overrunning moisture atop the cooler surface layer will result
in partly to mostly cloudy skies across the Piedmont on Saturday
with more clearing expected from I-95 east. Temperatures will only
rise into the mid to upper 40s for much of the area with low and mid
50s for the SE quarter of the area including Hampton Roads and NE
NC. A shortwave trough dives under the ridge from the Midwest into
the Ohio Valley Saturday night into Sunday, bringing a weak front
towards the area. 00z guidance continues the downward trend with
respect to measurable precip with this feature and have reduced PoPs
to just a slight chance with the relative highest PoPs across our
northern counties in VA and MD. Low temps Saturday and Sunday nights
generally in the 30s with low 40s for the far SE portions of the
area. CAD wedging holds across the Piedmont on Sunday with cloudy
skies expected over most of the area. High temps range from the
mid/upper 40s W to the low/mid 50s E. The cold front moves through
late Sunday night with breezy NW/N winds near the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 350 AM EST Friday...

High pressure builds southward again Monday as low pressure deepens
well offshore, resulting in dry/cool weather into midweek. Temps
warm into the upper 40s and low 50s Monday with overnight lows
falling back into the mid 20s to low 30s. A bit cooler Tuesday with
high temps mostly in the mid 40s despite mostly clear skies inland.
More clouds are expected for Hampton Roads and areas to the south
with northerly winds bringing some bay-effect clouds to the region
through mid to late afternoon. Low temps Tuesday night will fall
into the mid 20s inland with low 30s near the coast.

Low pressure across the central CONUS will have trouble dislodging
the surface ridge on Wednesday but is expected to make some progress
by Thursday, which will bring a chance for precip back to the
region. Have capped PoPs during this period at Chance for now given
how persistent the Canadian ridge has been. A warming trend in
temperatures expected late in the period as southerly flow finally
returns.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 650 AM EST Friday...

VFR conditions in place this morning across the TAF sites. Winds
are from the NE 5-10 kt and are expected to remain in that range
through the day before diminishing to ~5 kt this evening.
Satellite and surface observations show clearing across the
Eastern Shore and Northern Neck expanding slowly to the SW.
Radar shows some light echoes along and SW of a line from FVX to
ECG but these will end before the afternoon with most of the
area remaining dry through the period.

Outlook: High pressure prevails Saturday, with a weak low
pressure system bringing a slight chc of rain Saturday night
into Sunday. High pressure returns Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 700 AM EST Friday...

Strong sfc high pressure is centered across Ontario this
morning and is forecast to build east into Quebec through
Saturday, strengthening to ~1050mb. Weak low pressure is
currently passing by south of the waters and will get pushed
well south today as the strong high to the north ridges south.
SCAs remain in effect for the coastal waters through the weekend
and the mouth of the Bay into Saturday primarily for elevated
seas (5-7ft) and waves (3-4ft at the mouth of the Bay). Have
also added SCA for the Currituck Sound through 21Z this aftn.
Gusts to around 20kt will continue this morning elsewhere but
expect this to be short-lived so have issued an MWS for the
lower James/remainder of the Bay through 9am. Either way,
boating conditions will be less than ideal with 2-3 ft waves in
the remainder of the Bay. Fairly similar conditions persist
overnight and on Saturday as the strong sfc high is slow to push
east across Quebec. A sfc low slides off the Mid
Atlantic/southern New England coast N of the local waters late
Sunday allowing for a cold front to push across the area and for
winds to become NW, increasing to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt
late Sun night through Mon night. Additional SCAs will likely be
needed for this surge (particularly across the Bay and the
Currituck sound). Seas are forecast to build a little higher,
potentially reaching to 7-9 ft by Mon night. Even as winds are
forecast to slowly diminish by Tue, seas are expected to stay
elevated, so SCAs will likely continue to be extended through at
least the middle of the week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
as of 400 AM EST Friday...

Expect to see slowly rising water levels/tidal departures into
the weekend with a continued N/NE flow and seas remaining
elevated w/ long period swell. As of right now, only low end
minor flooding or action stage water levels are forecast through
early monday. However, given that seas are forecast to remain
elevated or even increase further into Tuesday, the potential
is there for water to become trapped in the Bay which could lead
to more significant flooding. Still a lot of uncertainty but
will need to monitor the trends closely over the next few days.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for ANZ634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RHR
NEAR TERM...RHR
SHORT TERM...RHR
LONG TERM...RHR
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...LKB/RMM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...