Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 242047 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 447 PM EDT Thu May 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather is expected through Friday under the influence of high pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast. Low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will gradually bring a return of moisture for the upcoming weekend, mainly in the form of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 330 PM EDT Thursday... Sfc high pressure (1022 mb) is currently situated off the Eastern Shore with a cold front now down into central NC. Drier air (dew pts in the 50s) have made their way into much of the area with little to no afternoon CU to speak of. The offshore high will set the stage for a great evening. Clear and comfortable tonight with lows in the mid 50s to low 60s. Modest increase in temps expected on Friday, as thicknesses increase slightly and winds veer around to the SW as the surface high shifts further offshore. MOS and local thickness tool support highs into the mid to upper 80s (upr 70s/low immediate coast). && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 330 PM EDT Thursday... By Friday night into the weekend, we`ll see the southerly flow begin to bring more moisture back to the region as the surface high slides even further off the coast and the deep tropical moisture feed that is in place from the West Caribbean gets pulled farther north. Models are coming into better agreement with respect to handling of the system currently near the Yucatan, with the GFS now trending west with the system similar to the ECMWF. Even with the system heading more toward Louisiana we can still expect an increase in humidity locally, due to sustained southerly flow from the GOMEX, and a mainly diurnal chance of showers and thunderstorms both Saturday and Sunday. Highs Sat/Sun in the mid 80s, except slightly cooler immediate coast. Lows from the mid 60s to low 70s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 330 PM EDT Thursday... Still much uncertainty with both the track and amount of moisture associated with any tropical system next week. Both the GFS/ECMWF stall the system over the Gulf coast states but differ on the amount of moisture making it this far north. ECMWF keeps the deepest moisture south while the GFS shows periodic Atlantic and tropical moisture drifting north along a stalled boundary across the region. Upshot will be to keep pops in each day, highest across the south and greatest chc for thunder during the aftn/eve Mon/Tue. Pops cont Wed/Thu as the tropical moisture gets caught in the westerlies and tracks ENE. Highs upr 70s-mid 80s. Lows mid 60s- lwr 70s. && .AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 200 PM EDT Thursday... Mainly clear through sunset with light NNE winds. SKC tonight with light and variable winds. VFR conditions continue Friday with winds becoming SSW 10 kt or less. OUTLOOK...Expect moisture to increase for the upcoming holiday weekend with scattered showers/t-storms possible each afternoon/evening from Sat-Mon. Flight restrictions will be possible in/around tstms. && .MARINE... As of 330 PM EDT Thursday... No headlines as high pressure moves off the coast then dominates through the holiday weekend. NNE becomes become S then SW as the return flow sets up. Could see periodic south channeling in the Ches Bay at times, but guidance consensus keeps the winds generally at or below 15 kts. Seas 2-3 ft with 1-2 foot waves. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 330 PM EDT Thursday... A flood warning continues for the Appomattox River basin. Expect the river level will drop below flood stage by this evening. A flood warning remains in effect for the Nottoway River at Sebrell as the river will crest just above minor stage this evening or tonight. Additional flood warnings continue for portions of the Mattaponi river and for Kerr Lake due to ongoing road closure issues. See FLWAKQ and FLSAKQ for more details. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Levels should reach action stage and may approach minor flooding at Bishops Head Friday night due to the south channelling.
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&& .CLIMATE... As of 330 PM EDT Thursday... * RIC monthly rainfall total through 5/23 is 10.25" which now ranks as the wettest May on record. (breaking the old record of 9.79" in 2016). (Precipitation records date back to 1880). * SBY monthly rainfall total through 5/23 is 8.63" which already ranks as 3rd wettest May on record (wettest is 10.38" in 1948). (Precipitation records date back to 1906). && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM SHORT TERM...JDM/MAM LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...JDM MARINE...MPR HYDROLOGY...AKQ TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MPR CLIMATE...AKQ

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